2017 Championship Permutations

[i70q7m7ghw]

All true points. Except that Hamilton’s engine last year in Malaysia should never have blown - it was practically brand new.

It seems they generally fail due to a defect so it's not unusual for it to blow early in it's life. We don't tend to see many fatigue related failures.

[Restomaniac]

Do you ever wake up feeling like Homer Simpson chasing a hog roast?

Yeah.
But a championship isn’t won before it is done. And while the chance is mathematically slim, it isn’t impossible. Who would have thought that Vettel will suffer 3 races in a row with a significant compromize, two being DNFs, before Singapore? No one.

They can happen to Hamilton too, at the very least there should be some small concern over the vibrations in his PU in Suzuka. Not to mention that DNFs can happen for all sorts of reasons as Vettel is demonstrating.... from driver error to spark plug and others.

It really isnt won till it is.

I'm just glad you got the vague reference

[Manoah2u]

Odd to see this amount of malheur hitting Ferrari. To be honest, i'm not seeing bad luck anymore, i'm starting to see structural problems, and i'd feel inclined to blame stress for that.
Too much stress being put on the team, causing minor and silly mistakes which then cost dearly. Possibly fed by higher-ups in the Ferrari chain that more or less 'demand' Ferrari to win the WDC with Vettel. Put too much strain on the people - especially if the prospect can be that if this year doesn't bring the result they 'demand' then a lot of heads will roll - and you're gonna get the ball bouncing back into your face.

I understand Arrivabene sticking his nose in between the mechanics, but then i also don't understand it because it's adding only more stress to a crew under humongous pressure. Those mechanics are feeling the WDC pressure just as much. I can't help but wonder though, seeing how they were all so involved in getting Kimi's car under away in qually, wouldn't that have unwanted consequences on Vettel's side? Again, i'm starting to see patterns here. It's not a case of 'unfortunate circumstances' or 'bad luck' , it's just repetitive chaos at the very last moment.

chances are almost zero now that Vettel will be able to bag this championship. Ironically, that means that Alonso still was right in leaving Ferrari, can you believe that. Even if he isn't in a WDC car himself now.

Am i correct to say that if Lewis wins the next GP, the championship is decided or am i wrong there?

[Moose]

Odd to see this amount of malheur hitting Ferrari. To be honest, i'm not seeing bad luck anymore, i'm starting to see structural problems, and i'd feel inclined to blame stress for that.
Too much stress being put on the team, causing minor and silly mistakes which then cost dearly. Possibly fed by higher-ups in the Ferrari chain that more or less 'demand' Ferrari to win the WDC with Vettel. Put too much strain on the people - especially if the prospect can be that if this year doesn't bring the result they 'demand' then a lot of heads will roll - and you're gonna get the ball bouncing back into your face.

I understand Arrivabene sticking his nose in between the mechanics, but then i also don't understand it because it's adding only more stress to a crew under humongous pressure. Those mechanics are feeling the WDC pressure just as much. I can't help but wonder though, seeing how they were all so involved in getting Kimi's car under away in qually, wouldn't that have unwanted consequences on Vettel's side? Again, i'm starting to see patterns here. It's not a case of 'unfortunate circumstances' or 'bad luck' , it's just repetitive chaos at the very last moment.

chances are almost zero now that Vettel will be able to bag this championship. Ironically, that means that Alonso still was right in leaving Ferrari, can you believe that. Even if he isn't in a WDC car himself now.

Am i correct to say that if Lewis wins the next GP, the championship is decided or am i wrong there?

No - if Lewis wins the next GP, he'd need Vettel to finish 6th or lower to have decided the championship. If Vettel is higher than 6th, the championship carries on to the next race no matter what Lewis does.

[ringo]

Worst case for Hamilton though - if he DNFs in CotA which i expect to be a strong race for him, and Vettel wins, it would narrow the gap back to 34 points with 3 races to go on which Mercedes may or may not be competitive. That would then mean he could still win it with 3 wins with Hamilton coming in at best 4th, 4th and 3rd.

Yes it's still all to play for. I wont relax for one minute with that fact. The ferrari is still very strong and the merc can have a failure and a crash very easily in the next set of races. Vettel can still win this.

[Fulcrum]

And that would require nobody taking points off Vettel for P1. Ignoring Rikkonen for obvious reasons. I can't imagine the RB's or Bottas not now doing that.

Exactly. Hamilton's "41 point" requirement drops with each position less than 1st for Vettel.

In all honesty, Vettel's chances of winning the championship are probably lower than Hamilton's if Hamilton were to skip the last 4 races.

Vettel would need 59 points from 4 events, at an average of 14.75, and his season average is only 14.52. Obviously that 14.52 average was formed with Hamilton taking part, taking points away from Vettel, but I think this illustrates how long the odds are.

If i am not mistaken, Vettel came 2nd 4 (or 5) times to Hamilton winning the race, so had Hamilton not taken part, Vettel would have bagged significantly more points on average. If Hamilton for whatever reason broke his leg and was unable to participate in the remainder of the season, i am fairly confident Vettel would be able to bag it, at the very least with 4 3rd place finishes accumulating 60 points.

Anyway, yes Vettels chances are very slim. Again: Hamilton just needs one more win and a 5th place (not 2nd) and Vettel will be unable to make up those points.

Worst case for Hamilton though - if he DNFs in CotA which i expect to be a strong race for him, and Vettel wins, it would narrow the gap back to 34 points with 3 races to go on which Mercedes may or may not be competitive. That would then mean he could still win it with 3 wins with Hamilton coming in at best 4th, 4th and 3rd.

Yes, if Hamilton were to 'disappear' for the last 4 races, Vettel would indeed stand a good chance of winning, as I highlighted in my original post. Vettel's average points per race would be higher, he would likely win the championship.

However, my point in making that comparison was that Vettel's chances of doing so, under those very unique circumstances, are smaller than Hamilton's chances given they both race.

I was simply trying to illustrate how remote Vettel's chances actually are, what set of circumstances would be required for Vettel to win with any reasonable likelihood, highlighting how badly unfortunate Hamilton would need to be from this point onward.

Of course, Hamilton is well aware of just how badly title ambitions can implode. In 2007, with four races left, he led Raikkonen by 18 points, equivalent to 43 points under the current scoring system (one 1st, one 2nd).

Not only was the points differential lower than the current one, but Hamilton wasn't driving the dominant car of the time, didn't have a compliant teammate, was a rookie driver, and general reliability was lower than is the case today.

All told, Vettel can't win the championship without Hamilton suffering some truly calamitous results in series.

Perhaps the best argument I can offer is the evidence given by the past 4 races. Hamilton has scored 93 points, from three wins and one 2nd place, while Vettel has only managed 27 points, from a 3rd and 4th place coupled with two retirements.

If these results were to be switched around for the last 4 races, Hamilton scoring 27 points and Vettel 93 points, Vettel would win by 7 points. But that would require Hamilton to retire twice and perform badly in the other races, while Vettel wins most, or all, of the remaining races.

The focus really becomes the likelihood of retiring. Since 2014, Mercedes have retired 11 times from 150 entries. I assume retirements within the same team are randomly distributed between teammates (even though Spain 2016 wasn't). This assumption would pass a hypothesis test given the split is 5-6 between Rosberg/Bottas - Hamilton.

In the 4 remaining races, or 8 collective entries, the distribution of failures is as follows:

0 retirements - 54.374%
1 retirement - 34.424%
2 retirements - 9.535%
3 retirements - 1.509%
4 retirements - 0.149%
5 or more - 0.010%

0 or 1 retirements and Hamilton will win the championship. The interest is therefore 2 or more.

These values are across both drivers, so the chance of exactly 2 retirements for Hamilton, given 2 retirements occur within Mercedes, becomes 2.38375%.

If Mercedes experiences 3 retirements, Hamilton will experience 2 or more retirements with probability 0.7545%.

If Mercedes experiences 4 retirements, Hamilton will experience 2 or more retirements with probability 0.1%. Likewise for 5 or more retirements (0.1% chance Hamilton experiences 2 or more).

Sum the probabilities and you get 3.33825; 3.34% then. That's the chance, by my calculations, that Hamilton experiences 2, or more, retirements in the remaining races.

This does not take into account the reality that Mercedes have retired less often recently than earlier in the period of measurement; 2014 was easily the worst with 5 retirements, with only 6 subsequent to that. If you only use 2015 to 2017, the probability of multiple retirements affecting Hamilton drops to 1.8%. I'd consider this far more representative.

Therefore, I think Vettel has a lower than 1.8% chance of winning the championship.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Exactly. Hamilton's "41 point" requirement drops with each position less than 1st for Vettel.

In all honesty, Vettel's chances of winning the championship are probably lower than Hamilton's if Hamilton were to skip the last 4 races.

Vettel would need 59 points from 4 events, at an average of 14.75, and his season average is only 14.52. Obviously that 14.52 average was formed with Hamilton taking part, taking points away from Vettel, but I think this illustrates how long the odds are.

If i am not mistaken, Vettel came 2nd 4 (or 5) times to Hamilton winning the race, so had Hamilton not taken part, Vettel would have bagged significantly more points on average. If Hamilton for whatever reason broke his leg and was unable to participate in the remainder of the season, i am fairly confident Vettel would be able to bag it, at the very least with 4 3rd place finishes accumulating 60 points.

Anyway, yes Vettels chances are very slim. Again: Hamilton just needs one more win and a 5th place (not 2nd) and Vettel will be unable to make up those points.

Worst case for Hamilton though - if he DNFs in CotA which i expect to be a strong race for him, and Vettel wins, it would narrow the gap back to 34 points with 3 races to go on which Mercedes may or may not be competitive. That would then mean he could still win it with 3 wins with Hamilton coming in at best 4th, 4th and 3rd.

Yes, if Hamilton were to 'disappear' for the last 4 races, Vettel would indeed stand a good chance of winning, as I highlighted in my original post. Vettel's average points per race would be higher, he would likely win the championship.

However, my point in making that comparison was that Vettel's chances of doing so, under those very unique circumstances, are smaller than Hamilton's chances given they both race.

I was simply trying to illustrate how remote Vettel's chances actually are, what set of circumstances would be required for Vettel to win with any reasonable likelihood, highlighting how badly unfortunate Hamilton would need to be from this point onward.

Of course, Hamilton is well aware of just how badly title ambitions can implode. In 2007, with four races left, he led Raikkonen by 18 points, equivalent to 43 points under the current scoring system (one 1st, one 2nd).

Not only was the points differential lower than the current one, but Hamilton wasn't driving the dominant car of the time, didn't have a compliant teammate, was a rookie driver, and general reliability was lower than is the case today.

All told, Vettel can't win the championship without Hamilton suffering some truly calamitous results in series.

Perhaps the best argument I can offer is the evidence given by the past 4 races. Hamilton has scored 93 points, from three wins and one 2nd place, while Vettel has only managed 27 points, from a 3rd and 4th place coupled with two retirements.

If these results were to be switched around for the last 4 races, Hamilton scoring 27 points and Vettel 93 points, Vettel would win by 7 points. But that would require Hamilton to retire twice and perform badly in the other races, while Vettel wins most, or all, of the remaining races.

The focus really becomes the likelihood of retiring. Since 2014, Mercedes have retired 11 times from 150 entries. I assume retirements within the same team are randomly distributed between teammates (even though Spain 2016 wasn't). This assumption would pass a hypothesis test given the split is 5-6 between Rosberg/Bottas - Hamilton.

In the 4 remaining races, or 8 collective entries, the distribution of failures is as follows:

0 retirements - 54.374%
1 retirement - 34.424%
2 retirements - 9.535%
3 retirements - 1.509%
4 retirements - 0.149%
5 or more - 0.010%

0 or 1 retirements and Hamilton will win the championship. The interest is therefore 2 or more.

These values are across both drivers, so the chance of exactly 2 retirements for Hamilton, given 2 retirements occur within Mercedes, becomes 2.38375%.

If Mercedes experiences 3 retirements, Hamilton will experience 2 or more retirements with probability 0.7545%.

If Mercedes experiences 4 retirements, Hamilton will experience 2 or more retirements with probability 0.1%. Likewise for 5 or more retirements (0.1% chance Hamilton experiences 2 or more).

Sum the probabilities and you get 3.33825; 3.34% then. That's the chance, by my calculations, that Hamilton experiences 2, or more, retirements in the remaining races.

This does not take into account the reality that Mercedes have retired less often recently than earlier in the period of measurement; 2014 was easily the worst with 5 retirements, with only 6 subsequent to that. If you only use 2015 to 2017, the probability of multiple retirements affecting Hamilton drops to 1.8%. I'd consider this far more representative.

Therefore, I think Vettel has a lower than 1.8% chance of winning the championship.

All of this, ASSUMING Vettel will not hit anymore trouble and win all the races!

[Phil]

Fulcrum,

What were the odds prior to Singapore that Ferrari would face a total of 4 DNFs and a highly compromized race over the next 3 race weekends?

[Fulcrum]

Therefore, I think Vettel has a lower than 1.8% chance of winning the championship.

All of this, ASSUMING Vettel will not hit anymore trouble and win all the races!

That's why I stated his odds as lower than 1.8%.

[ChrisDanger]

Therefore, I think Vettel has a lower than 1.8% chance of winning the championship.

All of this, ASSUMING Vettel will not hit anymore trouble and win all the races!

That's why I stated his odds as lower than 1.8%.

I just wanted to say thanks for editing your quoted post. Scrolling multiple pages to read a single sentence reply is a real pain.

[Fulcrum]

Fulcrum,

What were the odds prior to Singapore that Ferrari would face a total of 4 DNFs and a highly compromized race over the next 3 race weekends?

Low, although I would point out that 2 of the 4 were entirely self-inflicted, like Rosberg coming together with Hamilton in Spain last year.

While I haven't excluded these points from the analysis of failures - if I did, it would only assign lower likelihood to the event - you can bet your bank balance that Mercedes/Ferrari management would ensure such acts of 'randomness' never happened again. Unlike pure reliability issues, these sorts of problems can be stage-managed and are less likely to recur.

Getting back to the question. I calculate the probability of 4 or more failures from Ferrari in an interval of 3 races to be 0.75%, a 1 in 132.5 event. This is purely driven by the reliability data, and does not take into account circumstances of the races (wet weather, etc...). This statistic was calculated using data from 2015 up to Monza 2017.

4 DNFs were certainly an unlikely outcome, even taking the data into consideration, and you could use this sort of argument to motivate anything that is unlikely. Probability does not prevent possibility, it merely assigns likelihood on the basis of prior evidence.

The biggest issue I have with this sort of argument is that the same argument could, and should, be used to motivate the relative likelihood of Hamilton's chances.

With respect to reliability, it doesn't matter how you try to slice the data. Mercedes is more reliable than Ferrari. Comparative failures, be they 3, 4 or 5 failures, are all far more likely to be generated by Ferrari than Mercedes.

[Fulcrum]

All of this, ASSUMING Vettel will not hit anymore trouble and win all the races!

I just wanted to say thanks for editing your quoted post. Scrolling multiple pages to read a single sentence reply is a real pain.

No problem. I haven't done this consistently in the past, being a bit unfamiliar with the editing capacity of the posting system, but I will try to do so going forward.

[ChrisDanger]

No problem. I haven't done this consistently in the past, being a bit unfamiliar with the editing capacity of the posting system, but I will try to do so going forward.

Cool man. I was on my phone earlier and had to scroll for what seemed like ages, and when I finally got to the reply it was only one sentence. I had a bit of a moment. I always try to edit quoted posts down to the part that applies to my reply, but I guess that's the other extreme. Anyway, do what you can; it will be appreciated. I get that some people can't be bothered, and that's okay, but what might take you a moment can potentially save time for many other users. Quoted posts now have this neat little arrow that links to the original, so that's always there for reference if someone does want to reread the whole thing. Or the scroll wheel.

[Restomaniac]

Well..,It seems Ferrari had to turn their combustion up (Spec 4) to counteract the lack of oil to stop being way down on the Merc Spec 4 and that caused the spark plug problem due to extra stress right across the ICE.
I only bring it up on here as that surely cannot help Vettel's chances if they are having to overstress the ICE just to even stay with Mercedes.

[Just_a_fan]

Presumably they will use the enhanced mode in qualifying and then a safer mode in the race. Knowing that overtaking is hard for everyone, especially Mercedes it seems, getting to the first corner first is important for Vettel.

All Vettel can do is try to win the rest of the races. Anything else is down to the performance of others. In this regard, the pressure is sort of off him.