Kimi doing well at Ferrari will be relative to how Alonso does at McMerc & Fisi as #1 driver at Renault.
McLaren had a phenominal & heartbreaking year in '05. They had the fastest car, yet the most unreliable. They entered '06 with high hopes: a revised chassis and the same drivers. What happened? Their car is slower, still somewhat unreliable, lost a driver to nascar, and has yet to win one race this season.
I doubt Alonso will do better. While he is a great driver, his driving style is unique and it will take time for him to adjust to the new McLaren chassis or vise-versa. Reliability is another issue though. Mirrors falling off, electronic manfunctions, engines blowing up, random things starting on fire - the McLaren squad has their off-season cut out for them. And if their progress is anything like the '05-'06 off season, Alonso will cry a river.
Fisi as #1 at Renault is somewhat a mystery so far. He has the talent, he has the car, and he only has a 1yr contract. What I see as Fisi's biggest concern is he's too emotional. His problem is his mentality. If he can straighten that out - then the car will come to him. I won't be holding my breath though.
Honda has high hopes for next season and Button has been beating his chest recently that he hopes to be challenging for the WDC next year. Like we've never heard that before from Jens. On the development side, it'll be interesting to see what effects replacing Geoff Willis with a Japanese commitee, and a Japanese Technical Director, will have on the '07+ chassis. Personally, I see Honda replacing much of the English staff at Honda with Japanese employees and the F1 program imploding soon afterwards.
I would expect Honda's '07 season to be no better than '06. Hell, I'll even go out on a limb and say Red Bull will be the '07 season's spoiler for the top teams.
With that said. Ferrari has a proven car, engine, and driver for '07. No other team has that going for them. Italians are very proud and passionate by nature - they learned from the Schumi era how to win and they will keep that tradition going come hell or high water. As much as I like to see an underdog do well, Ferrari will be on top in the post-Schumacher days of F1. Having Kimi being a plug-n-play driver will only make things easier.
If someone has a chance of beating Kimi & Ferrari for the championship, I'll place my bet on Fisico. The odds are not the greatest, but that's what gambling is all about.
SIU Formula SAE