Gary Anderson predicts F1's pecking order

[PlatinumZealot]

That does change somewhat in the race where it should be much closer. If the relative performances remain the same in Australia, and that's a very big if, then we could be in for a race where Mercedes can act like Red Bull at their best. Crank up the power for a few laps to pull a gap and then sit back and cruise managing the gap, putting in little spurts where needed to make sure they keep out front.

Well, I tell you huwhat, this year the cars leave a smaller wake due to less wing around the rear so expect to see a smaller dirty air penalty this year.. there will definitely be no Vettel style running and hiding!

[DaveKillens]

Is it the skeptic in me or just being a bit cynical watching the journalists attempting to say anything, something before Melbourne?

The teams say it each year, the drivers say it each year, the repetitious mantra "we won't know the pecking order until Melbourne". They test, we observe and attempt to make something out of it without hard data apart from lap times and numbers of laps run.

IMO, we can learn patterns from testing, but anything after that is pure speculation without knowing what's really going on behind the drawn covers. Last year, does anyone remember last year when McLaren appeared to be oh-so strong? Or that Red Bull were quietly racking up laps but being relatively quiet?

I also recall such tidbits as the 2012 season where no one noticed Sauber. It sure was a crazy start to the season, 7 different winners in the first 7 races. But no one could ignore the race pace of the Sauber and the excellent job Perez was doing. At Montreal he electricified everyone with a magnificent charge to third. Of course, no one noticed him in pre-season testing or the Sauber.

Experience and a smattering of history has taught me that there are at least two teams that perform quite different than testing when it's time to race (Red Bull were hiding in the shadows and McLaren, well, let's try to bury the painful memories of McLaren and 2013) and that in the end, we are just guessing, and that journalists have to say something, they have a deadline to submit some kind of story.

Eighteen days, I wonder how I can speed up time..........

[Pup]

I agree - but without the speculation, where's the fun?

That's surely why I'm most interested in the sport pre- and early-season. Mid year it always begins to bore me. I'm always more interested in what could be rather than what is.

[timbo]

I agree - but without the speculation, where's the fun?

Problem is the speculation here is presented with some calculations as a facade and thus pretends to be something more than a pure gossip. While all the numbers going into it (fuel levels, tyre compound gaps) are entirely arbitrary.
IMO even track reports (which car looks stable, which twitches etc) give better picture at this stage.

[zeph]

My prediction is that with all the changes, experienced and mature drivers are going to be key this year. Playing the long game, bringing the car home for small fry points when it is not the fastest, conserving fuel and/or tires, being patient and biding your time, etc.

Ferrari may not look all that impressive in pre-season testing, but did you know, they have Fernando Alonso AND Kimi Raikkonen?

Even if the car turns out to be second or third best (and I'm not speculating it is), I can see them taking the WCC on strength of their drivers alone.

[Maelstrom]

My prediction is that with all the changes, experienced and mature drivers are going to be key this year. Playing the long game, bringing the car home for small fry points when it is not the fastest, conserving fuel and/or tires, being patient and biding your time, etc.

Ferrari may not look all that impressive in pre-season testing, but did you know, they have Fernando Alonso AND Kimi Raikkonen?

Even if the car turns out to be second or third best (and I'm not speculating it is), I can see them taking the WCC on strength of their drivers alone.

I dunno... I think Rosberg and Hamilton will give them a run for their money

[raymondu999]

Well, I tell you huwhat, this year the cars leave a smaller wake due to less wing around the rear so expect to see a smaller dirty air penalty this year.. there will definitely be no Vettel style running and hiding!

Less slipstream effect too - don't forget.

[tok-tokkie]

That does change somewhat in the race where it should be much closer. If the relative performances remain the same in Australia, and that's a very big if, then we could be in for a race where Mercedes can act like Red Bull at their best. Crank up the power for a few laps to pull a gap and then sit back and cruise managing the gap, putting in little spurts where needed to make sure they keep out front.

Well, I tell you huwhat, this year the cars leave a smaller wake due to less wing around the rear so expect to see a smaller dirty air penalty this year.. there will definitely be no Vettel style running and hiding!

Plus there is no 1 second KERS gap to protect the leading car.

[JimClarkFan]

Ferrari is still a mystery, and they may well surprise everyone in March.

I have a suspicion they will improve, for several reasons:
i) unlike everyone else, their car seems completely devoid of aerodynamic bodywork at the back of the car, no monkey seat, no frills.
ii) they say they have only been testing electronics and engine settings, and under James Allison they have been very methodical this year during testing, keeping their head under the radar, their engine is also very very fast.
iii) they have been working on their car from early last year I believe, so to come with a package that is very stripped down doesn't make sense

[CHT]

All teams will improve from now on but mercedes powered cars are way ahead of the rest in terms of power and reliability.
The only thing that could fail them will perhaps be fuel efficiency which at the moment, we dont really know where renault and ferrari stand.

[CBeck113]

All teams will improve from now on but mercedes powered cars are way ahead of the rest in terms of power and reliability.
The only thing that could fail them will perhaps be fuel efficiency which at the moment, we dont really know where renault and ferrari stand.

Impossible to predict, but you could say that they let their pants down earlier (i.e. used more power during last week's test), but not too much else. We don't know how much power they were using from the PU, and we also don't know fuel loads. We can count laps, so if anyone thinks that Mercedes is the best because the drove more laps =D> .

This week's test will start to show the pecking order, especially the last two days. Gary's list just shows that he's more into sensasionalism than journalism.

[Rikhart]

Even this final test will only show us a glimpse of the relative pace of the cars IN BAHRAIN.

[willmesquita]

I respect GA, but he's a Ferrari hater - .

I made my own evaluation - equalising and adding 'sandbagging factor' based in insights and interviews (so not accurate).

My result:

Equipe Tempo (s) Diff (s)
Mercedes 132,7 0,0
McLaren 133,5 0,8
Ferrari 134,2 1,5
Williams 134,9 2,2
F. India 135,7 3,0
Sauber 136,6 3,9
T. Rosso 137,8 5,1
Lotus 138,2 5,5
Red Bull 138,2 5,5
Marussia 139,3 6,6
Caterham 140,1 7,4

http://papayaorange.com.br/2014/02/um-q ... na-frente/

[CHT]

All teams will improve from now on but mercedes powered cars are way ahead of the rest in terms of power and reliability.
The only thing that could fail them will perhaps be fuel efficiency which at the moment, we dont really know where renault and ferrari stand.

Impossible to predict, but you could say that they let their pants down earlier (i.e. used more power during last week's test), but not too much else. We don't know how much power they were using from the PU, and we also don't know fuel loads. We can count laps, so if anyone thinks that Mercedes is the best because the drove more laps =D> .

This week's test will start to show the pecking order, especially the last two days. Gary's list just shows that he's more into sensasionalism than journalism.

I dont think its a coincident that all 3 mercedes powered team are leading the time sheet.

[dren]

Mark Gillan on James Allen's website has a much beter analysis.

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2014/02/q ... n-f1-test/