F1MATHS: What do the numbers reveal about Ferrari's progress in 2026?

Ferrari's 2026 Formula One campaign has so far experienced a gradual improvement both over a single lap and a race distance. Lewis Hamilton's victory at Barcelona and Charles Leclerc's triumph at Silverstone are clear indications for Ferrari's improvement, but F1Technical's senior writer Balazs Szabo now takes a look at how the Scuderia have performed so far in qualifying.

The numbers clearly confirm a gradual improvement over the opening nine races. Ferrari began the year over one percent away from pole position in Australia, but since then have consistently reduced that margin, even if certain circuits exposed lingering weaknesses—particularly in power unit energy deployment.

The season opened with Mercedes producing a commanding qualifying performance in Melbourne. George Russell secured pole position while Ferrari found themselves 1.030% behind the benchmark—a sizeable deficit that reflected the SF26's lack of outright one-lap pace compared to Mercedes' new-generation package.

At that stage, Ferrari were clearly not genuine contenders for pole position.

Only one race later, Ferrari made a clear improvements. In Shanghai, the qualifying deficit shrank dramatically to 0.381%, cutting the Australian gap by almost two thirds.

Although Mercedes remained comfortably quickest, Ferrari demonstrated that the opening weekend had not been fully representative of their true pace.

Suzuka presented one of Ferrari's most difficult weekends. The Scuderia's qualifying deficit increased to 0.591%, as the circuit highlighted one of the team's main weaknesses under the new 2026 regulations—energy deployment.

With Suzuka placing heavy demands on electrical energy management through its long high-speed sections, Ferrari struggled to extract maximum performance throughout the lap, allowing Mercedes to pull further ahead once again.

Following Japan, Ferrari entered a far more consistent phase. The deficits across three very different circuits were remarkably similar: 0.393% in Miami, 0.400% in Montreal, and 0.316% in Monaco.

These figures suggested Ferrari had established a relatively stable qualifying performance level. Although still several tenths away from pole position, the SF26 had become a regular front-running contender, particularly on circuits where outright energy deployment was slightly less critical.

The Spanish Grand Prix produced Ferrari's strongest qualifying performance of the season. Lewis Hamilton came agonisingly close to securing pole position, ultimately missing out by just 0.086% to former Mercedes teammate George Russell.

It was by far Ferrari's smallest deficit of the year and demonstrated that, under the right conditions, the SF26 possessed genuine pole-winning pace. For the first time in 2026, Ferrari looked capable of matching Mercedes over a single lap.

Despite introducing the team's first ADUO power unit upgrade, Ferrari's qualifying deficit increased once more. In Spielberg, the Scuderia finished 0.357% away from pole position.

While still significantly better than the opening rounds, Austria once again hinted that Ferrari continued to struggle with energy deployment on circuits demanding sustained electrical performance, limiting the full potential of the upgrade package.

Moreover, Ferrari struggled for an optimal balance at the Red Bull Ring which meant that they could not fully exploit their usual strengths through the medium-speed corners.

Ferrari arrived at Silverstone in excellent form. Lewis Hamilton secured Sprint Pole, while both Ferrari drivers looked highly competitive throughout the weekend.

In Grand Prix qualifying, Charles Leclerc emerged as Ferrari's fastest driver, ultimately qualifying 0.199% behind championship leader Andrea Kimi Antonelli.

Although not quite matching the exceptional Barcelona performance, Silverstone confirmed that Ferrari had become a genuine front-row contender.

Leclerc converted that pace into victory on Sunday, claiming Ferrari's first British Grand Prix win since the introduction of the new regulations.

The overall trajectory is encouraging. Excluding the difficult opening race in Australia and the energy-sensitive Suzuka circuit, Ferrari have generally operated within two to four tenths of a percent from pole position.

Barcelona proved that the SF26 has the potential to fight for pole, while Silverstone reinforced that Ferrari's one-lap pace is no longer far behind Mercedes.

However, the fluctuations at Suzuka and Austria suggest one limitation remains unresolved. Tracks that place particularly high demands on electrical energy deployment continue to expose weaknesses in Ferrari's power unit management, preventing the Scuderia from consistently extracting maximum qualifying performance.