COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Ringleheim
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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nzjrs wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:18 am
mclaren111 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:11 am
Idea...

Allow British based teams to test at Silverstone and the others in Italy (Ferrari's test track) after the summer break...

Four teams in week one spaced far away from each other and no contact allowed between teams...

Second week the other 4 teams... Duration of 4 Days...
It was mentioned by another poster, but teams don't get paid for testing, and it costs money.
Yes, but it's not the cost of testing that prevents teams from doing more of it! I'm sure they'd all be very anxious to spend lots of money on testing if they could.

I still think there could be some type of test session coming, simply b/c the teams aren't getting any on Fridays during race weekends.

e30ernest
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Ringleheim wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:20 pm
nzjrs wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:18 am
mclaren111 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:11 am
Idea...

Allow British based teams to test at Silverstone and the others in Italy (Ferrari's test track) after the summer break...

Four teams in week one spaced far away from each other and no contact allowed between teams...

Second week the other 4 teams... Duration of 4 Days...
It was mentioned by another poster, but teams don't get paid for testing, and it costs money.
Yes, but it's not the cost of testing that prevents teams from doing more of it! I'm sure they'd all be very anxious to spend lots of money on testing if they could.

I still think there could be some type of test session coming, simply b/c the teams aren't getting any on Fridays during race weekends.
I don't see the benefit for the teams with the current situation though? At this point, the teams are losing sponsorship and TV money (vital income sources). Surely adding another expense wouldn't help them? I think the current freeze on activities is better for them because:

1. Their factories and test facilities are probably on lockdown - Which also includes maintenance of equipment there.
2. The logistics of moving people and equipment around to do a test puts them at greater risk of exposure even on a closed track in their "home country".
3. They are already tight on funds now so they will be looking to save money as much as they can. Unless they can earn from testing, they would probably skip that if they can.

sosic2121
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Capharol wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:29 pm
kimetic wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:29 am
Big Tea wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:46 pm
So are we likely to see a Chinese owned/controlled F1?
My first reaction to this idea was "Oh No!" but everyone seems to have a factory in China now, I see Daimler are reopening theirs as the epidemic apparently dies down there. The virus started off as 'China's fault' but now it seems they're beating it first and contributing genetics and analysis.

Perhaps a Chinese owned F1 could work, as they become more mainstream as it were. They could well do the technology better.
they are beating it first because they got it first ..... very simple math
Not even close. They beat the virus because of the measures they taken and despite the fact they were the first!
While China was struck with something new, world had the time to prepare, and we can already see that they did better than basically anyone else.
At the moment they 3.5k infected patients, while US has 15k new cases every day.

It will be interesting to see what will happen in Sweden. They decided to ignore corona...

DChemTech
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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sosic2121 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:03 am
Capharol wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:29 pm
kimetic wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:29 am

My first reaction to this idea was "Oh No!" but everyone seems to have a factory in China now, I see Daimler are reopening theirs as the epidemic apparently dies down there. The virus started off as 'China's fault' but now it seems they're beating it first and contributing genetics and analysis.

Perhaps a Chinese owned F1 could work, as they become more mainstream as it were. They could well do the technology better.
they are beating it first because they got it first ..... very simple math
Not even close. They beat the virus because of the measures they taken and despite the fact they were the first!
While China was struck with something new, world had the time to prepare, and we can already see that they did better than basically anyone else.
At the moment they 3.5k infected patients, while US has 15k new cases every day.

It will be interesting to see what will happen in Sweden. They decided to ignore corona...
and they desperately need to stay locked down from the rest of the world, with all due economic and humanitarian consequences. Otherwise it will be back within no time. Also, they scaled up surveillance quite a bit to achieve all of this - and don't expect them to scale that down again.
The whole thing cannot be contained indefinitely practically. So even though China managed to contain it for now, I'm not sure that means they did better than other countries. That doesn't mean Italy, Spain and especially the US did well.. but there are some countries (Germany, arguably) doing decently without needing to resort to truly draconian infringements on public and private live.

e30ernest
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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DChemTech wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:36 am
sosic2121 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:03 am
Capharol wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:29 pm


they are beating it first because they got it first ..... very simple math
Not even close. They beat the virus because of the measures they taken and despite the fact they were the first!
While China was struck with something new, world had the time to prepare, and we can already see that they did better than basically anyone else.
At the moment they 3.5k infected patients, while US has 15k new cases every day.

It will be interesting to see what will happen in Sweden. They decided to ignore corona...
and they desperately need to stay locked down from the rest of the world, with all due economic and humanitarian consequences. Otherwise it will be back within no time. Also, they scaled up surveillance quite a bit to achieve all of this - and don't expect them to scale that down again.
The whole thing cannot be contained indefinitely practically. So even though China managed to contain it for now, I'm not sure that means they did better than other countries. That doesn't mean Italy, Spain and especially the US did well.. but there are some countries (Germany, arguably) doing decently without needing to resort to truly draconian infringements on public and private live.
Yeah I really think that massive testing is the right way to go (what Germany and S. Korea did). That way you can quarantine the positive cases, while letting the economy mostly run. Just locking down isn't the right approach I think.

DChemTech
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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e30ernest wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:39 am
DChemTech wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:36 am
sosic2121 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:03 am

Not even close. They beat the virus because of the measures they taken and despite the fact they were the first!
While China was struck with something new, world had the time to prepare, and we can already see that they did better than basically anyone else.
At the moment they 3.5k infected patients, while US has 15k new cases every day.

It will be interesting to see what will happen in Sweden. They decided to ignore corona...
and they desperately need to stay locked down from the rest of the world, with all due economic and humanitarian consequences. Otherwise it will be back within no time. Also, they scaled up surveillance quite a bit to achieve all of this - and don't expect them to scale that down again.
The whole thing cannot be contained indefinitely practically. So even though China managed to contain it for now, I'm not sure that means they did better than other countries. That doesn't mean Italy, Spain and especially the US did well.. but there are some countries (Germany, arguably) doing decently without needing to resort to truly draconian infringements on public and private live.
Yeah I really think that massive testing is the right way to go (what Germany and S. Korea did). That way you can quarantine the positive cases, while letting the economy mostly run. Just locking down isn't the right approach I think.
Korea is a great example too indeed, thanks for bringing that up! Although their approach of notification of positive cases in your vicinity through an app would probably be difficult in the EU due to privacy concerns (I did hear there's now anonymous apps in the EU under development to log nearby cases, but one could still argue privacy concerns.. anonymity doesn't really work if there's only one person standing nearby, after all..).

kimetic
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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DChemTech wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:36 am
and they desperately need to stay locked down from the rest of the world, with all due economic and humanitarian consequences. Otherwise it will be back within no time. Also, they scaled up surveillance quite a bit to achieve all of this - and don't expect them to scale that down again.
The whole thing cannot be contained indefinitely practically. So even though China managed to contain it for now, I'm not sure that means they did better than other countries. That doesn't mean Italy, Spain and especially the US did well.. but there are some countries (Germany, arguably) doing decently without needing to resort to truly draconian infringements on public and private live.
Yes I agree, though I didn't mean to start a Covid-19 competition, just to point out that China needn't be seen as pariahs who are unfit to own F1. It's true they behave in a bad way with animals in many ways, but you don't influence people by ignoring them, you influence by engaging and having dialogue. Bringing F1 more to China might be the best way to save elephants and rhinos, for example, as well as reduce these virulent mixings of wild animal corpses. And I'm pretty sure they'd have done a better job with F1TV and live timing.

DChemTech
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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kimetic wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:58 am
DChemTech wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:36 am
and they desperately need to stay locked down from the rest of the world, with all due economic and humanitarian consequences. Otherwise it will be back within no time. Also, they scaled up surveillance quite a bit to achieve all of this - and don't expect them to scale that down again.
The whole thing cannot be contained indefinitely practically. So even though China managed to contain it for now, I'm not sure that means they did better than other countries. That doesn't mean Italy, Spain and especially the US did well.. but there are some countries (Germany, arguably) doing decently without needing to resort to truly draconian infringements on public and private live.
Yes I agree, though I didn't mean to start a Covid-19 competition, just to point out that China needn't be seen as pariahs who are unfit to own F1. It's true they behave in a bad way with animals in many ways, but you don't influence people by ignoring them, you influence by engaging and having dialogue. Bringing F1 more to China might be the best way to save elephants and rhinos, for example, as well as reduce these virulent mixings of wild animal corpses. And I'm pretty sure they'd have done a better job with F1TV and live timing.
I'm not so much concerned about the Chinese and their personal habits. Sure, they have some habits that we as Westerners find foreign, but I don't reckon those to be pariah [edit: I mean to say, every culture has questionable habits that we should be concerned about. I just don't think China is a particular outlier in that - it applies to every culture globally. So when I say I'm not so much concerned, I mean not specifically a lot more concerned in case of China.]. People from all over the world have quirks of their own, and in all cases, the world would be better off without some of those.

What I'm more concerned about is the attitude of the Chinese government with respect to personal agency, privacy, freedom, democracy, human rights, etcetera. Those are genuine issues that can perhaps be addressed by [large sports events] being introduced into such countries, but the large sports events can also be used to legitimize the regime. That doesn't only apply to China of course, but I think we can all agree that China has a larger influence on the world than Azerbaijan, or for that matter, Dubai.
Last edited by DChemTech on Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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izzy
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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DChemTech wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:11 am
I'm not so much concerned about the Chinese and their personal habits. Sure, they have some habits that we as Westerners find foreign, but I don't reckon those to be pariah. People from all over the world have quirks of their own, and in all cases, the world would be better off without some of those.
What I'm more concerned about is the attitude of the Chinese government with respect to personal agency, privacy, freedom, democracy, human rights, etcetera. Those are genuine issues that can perhaps be addressed by [large sports events] being introduced into such countries, but the large sports events can also be used to legitimize the regime. That doesn't only apply to China of course, but I think we can all agree that China has a larger influence on the world than Azerbaijan, or for that matter, Dubai.
isn't this more or less saying we're the only species that matters?

DChemTech
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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izzy wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:56 am
DChemTech wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:11 am
I'm not so much concerned about the Chinese and their personal habits. Sure, they have some habits that we as Westerners find foreign, but I don't reckon those to be pariah. People from all over the world have quirks of their own, and in all cases, the world would be better off without some of those.
What I'm more concerned about is the attitude of the Chinese government with respect to personal agency, privacy, freedom, democracy, human rights, etcetera. Those are genuine issues that can perhaps be addressed by [large sports events] being introduced into such countries, but the large sports events can also be used to legitimize the regime. That doesn't only apply to China of course, but I think we can all agree that China has a larger influence on the world than Azerbaijan, or for that matter, Dubai.
isn't this more or less saying we're the only species that matters?
If it does, that's not what I mean to imply. Surely I am concerned about trafficking of ivory/rhino horns and consumption of bush meat and so. But in the west, our own mega-stables, overfishing with huge trawlers, etc. are condoned - and I am quite certain similar concerns apply there (we've also seen outbreaks of chicken pest, goat and pig illnesses, etc., in the past two decades with some effect on people. They could luckily be contained... these times). So I certainly don't want to say we're the only species that matters. What I mean is we shouldn't just look at the Chinese when it comes to questionable carnivorous habits, but to people all around. I can see how my formulation was confusing, will alter it accordingly.

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Phil
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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e30ernest wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:39 am
Yeah I really think that massive testing is the right way to go (what Germany and S. Korea did). That way you can quarantine the positive cases, while letting the economy mostly run. Just locking down isn't the right approach I think.
I don't know what you think is happening in Germany. Germany is testing a lot, but they can't test everyone. They simply are a very large country with a large population. They're not testing everyone.

There's also a bit of a question mark over the tests themselves. Do people who are testing themselves too early getting a "false negative"?

It's also way too early to draw any conclusion over what is better; shutting down completely or letting the economy run. Germany is a fair bit behind the curve too, but their fatality rate is also growing exponentially by the day.
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Fulcrum
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Phil wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:45 pm
e30ernest wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:39 am
Yeah I really think that massive testing is the right way to go (what Germany and S. Korea did). That way you can quarantine the positive cases, while letting the economy mostly run. Just locking down isn't the right approach I think.
I don't know what you think is happening in Germany. Germany is testing a lot, but they can't test everyone. They simply are a very large country with a large population. They're not testing everyone.

There's also a bit of a question mark over the tests themselves. Do people who are testing themselves too early getting a "false negative"?

It's also way too early to draw any conclusion over what is better; shutting down completely or letting the economy run. Germany is a fair bit behind the curve too, but their fatality rate is also growing exponentially by the day.
The CFR in Germany isn't increasing much, if at all, if you consider the lag effect between confirmed diagnosis and outcome (death or recovery).

If you model deaths recorded "today" as a function of prior cases, where "prior" can mean anything between 5-15 days, then Germany's CFR has remained fairly constant relative to a lag of 7 days; this rate being ~ 1.7% of confirmed cases.

I.e. Deaths Today [Germany] = 1.7 x Confirmed Cases [7 Days prior] / 100

The sheer number of deaths are increasing though, as they are proportionate to the prior increase in cases.

As the numbers explode into the thousands per day, I do expect a higher CFR. Its simply not possible (IMO) to catch every case, meaning a higher percentage of the confirmed cases will be generated from serious cases seeking medical attention - not from those getting tested speculatively.

By way of example, in Italy, the CFR is in excess of 10%. This doesn't mean the mortality rate is 10%, rather that a significant population of people have the virus but are asymptomatic, and the sheer numbers of serious cases have prevented their detection.

Just_a_fan
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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I don't know if this article has been linked previously. It gives a good overview about why Germany could be different to others in terms of fatal cases.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... e-11964051
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RZS10
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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i mentioned it but it probably got lost in my pointlessly long post ... it's kinda a tl:dr of the article, which does have some informative data
RZS10 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:56 pm
https://youtu.be/NFuIphb0WaU

He talked about the relatively low death numbers in Germany, something many have wondered about.
- they don't know exactly why that is the case
- it's definitely not underreporting
- Germany managed to 'find' or confirm many mild cases
- low number of old people infected (from the dashboard it's at around 1000 of 80+yo)
One of the first confirmed cases in Germany recently left the ICU after a month and doesn't need ventilation anymore.
That also means that some patients will occupy ICU beds for up to 4 weeks making them unavailable for a very long time.
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e30ernest
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Re: COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

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Just sharing this interesting way to plot the spread to see who's "winning" against the virus.