Phil wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:45 pm
e30ernest wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:39 am
Yeah I really think that massive testing is the right way to go (what Germany and S. Korea did). That way you can quarantine the positive cases, while letting the economy mostly run. Just locking down isn't the right approach I think.
I don't know what you think is happening in Germany. Germany is testing a lot, but they can't test everyone. They simply are a very large country with a large population. They're not testing everyone.
There's also a bit of a question mark over the tests themselves. Do people who are testing themselves too early getting a "false negative"?
It's also way too early to draw any conclusion over what is better; shutting down completely or letting the economy run. Germany is a fair bit behind the curve too, but their fatality rate is also growing exponentially by the day.
The CFR in Germany isn't increasing much, if at all, if you consider the lag effect between confirmed diagnosis and outcome (death or recovery).
If you model deaths recorded "today" as a function of prior cases, where "prior" can mean anything between 5-15 days, then Germany's CFR has remained fairly constant relative to a lag of 7 days; this rate being ~ 1.7% of confirmed cases.
I.e. Deaths Today [Germany] = 1.7 x Confirmed Cases [7 Days prior] / 100
The sheer number of deaths are increasing though, as they are proportionate to the prior increase in cases.
As the numbers explode into the thousands per day, I do expect a higher CFR. Its simply not possible (IMO) to catch every case, meaning a higher percentage of the confirmed cases will be generated from serious cases seeking medical attention - not from those getting tested speculatively.
By way of example, in Italy, the CFR is in excess of 10%. This doesn't mean the mortality rate is 10%, rather that a significant population of people have the virus but are asymptomatic, and the sheer numbers of serious cases have prevented their detection.