PlatinumZealot wrote:Good graph Novulari. Can you do it relative to Redbull instead of Mercedes?
Thanks, yes you get three for the price of one!
I went ahead and plotted the deficits to RBR, Mercedes and Ferrari. First RBR:
A caveat with this is because RBR are not the best chassis/PU combo over these three years interpret the graph with the PU upgrades in mind.
RBR are an interesting reference point due to the fact that they had a clear 2nd best car over the 2014 season but showed a dip in performance in 2015 but now back up again for this year. I think the gap McLaren had to RBR in 2015 is not a realistic measure of chassis development over the year although it is quite flattering to McLaren.
Overall though, the trend in '15 and '16 has stayed similar up about Canada. I take this to mean that RBR and McLaren had a similar rate of chassis/PU developments allowing the gap to remain constant. However, at Canada RBR also receive a boost in PU performance so we start to see how the RB chassis performs in relation to McLaren when not limited too much by PU...this was also evident in Monaco but there is a clear widening of the gap by about 0.1s/km. After Canada, the same story here as with Mercedes. McLaren are slashing the deficit both in chassis and power tracks. An acceleration of chassis development. The gap has increased slightly in Monza this year, perhaps a glimpse into the kind of power gain necessary to match the RB chassis in low downforce config.
As a side note, looking at the 2014 trend, it looks to me that it was a chassis flattered by the PU. Despite having a class leading PU, the 2014 McLaren chassis lags quite behind RBR on the 'chassis' tracks such as Spain or where PU doesn't have a big effect (Monaco).
Hypothesis/Prediction: If McLaren have made gains as a result of PU development from Honda and the trend of halving the defit to RBR could be extrapolated to other tracks for the rest of the year, I would expect Singapore to be a real test of the McLaren chassis. Looking at the 2015 trend, this track is not particularly suited to the McLaren chassis compared to other tracks in relation to RBR. But based on this data, I'm predicting that McLaren should have half the deficit they had to RBR in 2015. This equates to around 0.7-0.9s [(0.15 to 0.18)*5.065] slower than whatever time RB qualify at this weekend. Let's see if it holds true.
I consider Mercedes and Ferrari (except 2014) to be more stable reference points as their PU performance allowed their respective chassis to perform at or near their best, so the data is easier to interpret than in reference to RBR:
Hope these plots are useful. If you guys want to have a look at the raw data, I'm happy to post it for further scrutiny.