2019 performance speculation

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HPD
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by HPD » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:25 pm

The fight for the championship between Ferrari and Mercedes, could have delayed a bit the works of 2019.
Compared to Red Bull, I think they focused on 2019 much earlier than Mercedes and Ferrari.

TR 2019 = Red Bull B (they will improve)
I also expect much improvement from Mclaren

NathanOlder
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by NathanOlder » Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:55 pm

hudnut wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:52 am
I don't think we have any idea what Honda will have next season.

They've basically been able to use TR as a test bed in GP conditions for most of the season.

They could have been trying all sorts of ideas at various times, and designed an absolute monster with the data they've gathered.
The trouble is. Mercedes and Ferrari have had 6 cars all year gathering data, to Honda's 2. I know Honda could try new parts each race, but If they had a 'Monster' as you put it, surely it makes sense to try it asap, like in the last race of the year!
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WaikeCU
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by WaikeCU » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:14 pm

Start 2019:

Ferrari
Merc
--------
Red Bull
--------
Sauber
Renault
--------
--------
RPFI
Haas
Mclaren
--------
--------
Williams
Toro Rosso


End 2019:

Merc
Red Bull
Ferrari
--------
--------
Sauber
Renault
Mclaren
--------
--------
RPFI
Haas
Williams
--------
--------
Toro Rosso

Just_a_fan
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Just_a_fan » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:27 pm

Phil wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:02 pm
If the talk by Helmut is anything to go by, as a competitor of RB, i’d be frightened. [...] The question will be if they can sustain that performance across an entire season and how many reliabilty set backs will they endure?
I think the first point needs to be considered with the last point. RedBull, under Newey, tend to run tight bodywork which I'm sure doesn't help reliability.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

GPR -A
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by GPR -A » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:29 pm

Phil wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:02 pm
If the talk by Helmut is anything to go by, as a competitor of RB, i’d be frightened. Even with the lacking Renault engine (although RB have been using fresher engines vs Mercedes/Ferrari), their general and tire performance in races has been extremely impressive. Assuming the Honda is at the very least slightly better would already bring them quite a bit closer.
Did you pay attention to the fact that, the excellent tire life was more unidirectional on one single compound in every race? They change the tire in the race and the pace suddenly disappears. Also, they gave up fighting for qualifying positions as they knew, even if they fight with all their might, the best that they could muster was a 3rd row start. With the mid-field being quite far behind, they could easily focus on a race biased setup, specifically targeting a compound.

With Pirelli changing compounds every year like underwear, teams have to be prepared for itching in unexpected parts for next year and give away the mastery they gained over scratching the current itch. It's going to be a reset on tires again and it's going to be learning all over again. A few more millions down the drain for each team, trying to learn the new round black sh** .

If Honda doesn't solve their reliability woes, RB might be compromised to run the PU in a conservative mode, akin to what they were doing with Renault. Merc and Ferrari have proven reliability and they add more power on top of what they have. The last time these guys introduced a newer spec PU was 3 months back in Spa and add another couple of months before the next spec goes to production and they have got 5 months to bring some more performance (six months if they started the 2019 spec PU after the this year's Spec 3 went into production in July). It's difficult to imagine Honda being anywhere closer to either Merc or Ferrari PU in 2019 and even if just one PU blows up for each of the RB driver (a very conservative ask, looking at their current state), it's almost championship over.

I would be happy to be surprised and see a three way fight. 2012 seems like eternity when we had more than 2 teams fighting for championship.

Godius
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Godius » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:38 pm

Diesel wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:21 pm
McLaren said similar things about Honda at the start, I'm not convinced, it didn't look great in the Torro Rosso this year. Let's not forget, Renault isn't standing still, the Spec C engine is a significant upgrade in power, they just need to sort the delivery issues, and they may even turn up next year with a Spec D/E with even more improvements.

McLaren and Honda had a major disconnect from the start, there was no synergy noticeable at all. The opposite is happening according to the various reports with the RBR/Honda partnership, cooperation is happening in every R&D and production process it seems.

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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Phil » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:51 pm

Just_a_fan wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:27 pm
Phil wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:02 pm
If the talk by Helmut is anything to go by, as a competitor of RB, i’d be frightened. [...] The question will be if they can sustain that performance across an entire season and how many reliabilty set backs will they endure?
I think the first point needs to be considered with the last point. RedBull, under Newey, tend to run tight bodywork which I'm sure doesn't help reliability.
Very true. Although I think it's been said that the Honda engine is more compact (even this year in the Torro-Rosso), so for the first time in many many many years, RedBull actually have an engine that is catered specifically to them and not to multiple customers.

As I said, I wouldn't be surprised to see RedBull 'dominating' on more tracks next year. However if they can sustain that level of performance through an entire race weekend and multiple ones remains to be seen and just might be their biggest handicap. That's just my hunch though.

Both Mercedes and Ferrari have been quite fortunate this year to have that PU advantage over RedBull in qualifying. It has set them up well to also better defend their positions in the race vs. RedBull. Next year, if the Honda is better, qualifying might actually be much closer.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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WaikeCU
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by WaikeCU » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:05 pm

GPR -A wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:29 pm
Phil wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:02 pm
If the talk by Helmut is anything to go by, as a competitor of RB, i’d be frightened. Even with the lacking Renault engine (although RB have been using fresher engines vs Mercedes/Ferrari), their general and tire performance in races has been extremely impressive. Assuming the Honda is at the very least slightly better would already bring them quite a bit closer.
Did you pay attention to the fact that, the excellent tire life was more unidirectional on one single compound in every race? They change the tire in the race and the pace suddenly disappears. Also, they gave up fighting for qualifying positions as they knew, even if they fight with all their might, the best that they could muster was a 3rd row start. With the mid-field being quite far behind, they could easily focus on a race biased setup, specifically targeting a compound.

With Pirelli changing compounds every year like underwear, teams have to be prepared for itching in unexpected parts for next year and give away the mastery they gained over scratching the current itch. It's going to be a reset on tires again and it's going to be learning all over again. A few more millions down the drain for each team, trying to learn the new round black sh** .

If Honda doesn't solve their reliability woes, RB might be compromised to run the PU in a conservative mode, akin to what they were doing with Renault. Merc and Ferrari have proven reliability and they add more power on top of what they have. The last time these guys introduced a newer spec PU was 3 months back in Spa and add another couple of months before the next spec goes to production and they have got 5 months to bring some more performance. It's difficult to imagine Honda being anywhere closer to either Merc or Ferrari PU in 2019 and even if just one PU blows up for each of the RB driver (a very conservative ask, looking at their current state), it's almost championship over.

I would be happy to be surprised and see a three way fight. 2012 seems like eternity when we had more than 2 teams fighting for championship.
I would like something similar to 2010. A 5-way battle for the Championship at some point during the Championship and a Finale where 4 of them still had a chance. That was some season!

I could only see Merc and Ferrari add more power PU-wise, but what's more important is to counter the loss in downforce with the mechanical grip the chassis offers. I think next season, the chassis will determine the order of the teams.

Just_a_fan
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Just_a_fan » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:31 pm

I think a lot will come down to who is able seal the floor best without the benefit of outwash. The high rake philosophy must benefit most from floor sealing. Maybe there will be rake reduction - at least to start with.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

Manoah2u
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Manoah2u » Wed Nov 28, 2018 4:54 pm

1. Red Bull
2. Mercedes
3. Ferrari
4. Renault
5. Alfa Romeo Sauber
6. Rich Energy F1 Team (RPFi)
7. Toro Rosso
8. Haas
9. Mclaren
10. Williams
Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools.

Phil
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Phil » Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:36 pm

Just_a_fan wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:31 pm
I think a lot will come down to who is able seal the floor best without the benefit of outwash. The high rake philosophy must benefit most from floor sealing. Maybe there will be rake reduction - at least to start with.
You got to admit though, if RedBull hadnt been handicapped by a subpar engine over these last few years, they’d have probably been WDC contenders. Hard not to be impressed of the cars they’ve developed even over these last few years (exception being perhaps start of 2017 where their car just didnt work).
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II
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marmer
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by marmer » Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:00 pm

I think Renault will become the 4th best team in a league of there own

One top driver and a decent second driver. Decent budget and a works engine.

McLaren might get car right and scupper that but I suspect not
Haas don't have a fast development
Alfa is unknown 1 talented driver and a rookie good engine but the development budget is a mystery theoretically it could be huge but maybe not

Just_a_fan
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Just_a_fan » Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:09 pm

Phil wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:36 pm
You got to admit though, if RedBull hadnt been handicapped by a subpar engine over these last few years, they’d have probably been WDC contenders. Hard not to be impressed of the cars they’ve developed even over these last few years (exception being perhaps start of 2017 where their car just didnt work).
Indeed so. I doubt anyone seriously thinks the RedBull chassis / aero is anything other than very much top drawer and that with a better PU they'd have been in the mix for titles. It would have been interesting to see the intra-team dynamic had that been the case. I think their internal fights would have been just as costly as their PU issues. Max and Dan would have been taking points off each other and probably would have allowed Vettel or Hamilton in by way of being individually more consistent. You wouldn't need many Baku style incidents to mess the team's chances.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

TAG
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by TAG » Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:38 pm

Being able to follow closely and not having to nurse the tires as much. That's been the stated goals, so the takeaway IMO will be that the gap between worst to first will compress quite a bit. Turbo and batteries are the main areas left for making power gains. Aero "complexity" for lack of a better word is being decreased, but that's not really what will be going on, we know that areas of the car such as floors and barges will likely be asked to work double time to make up for the loss of outwash effect. Interesting times indeed, but I think come Barcelona next year we'll be looking at around a 2 second qualifying gap between first and last.
Countdown to 91: 10 more victories ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by HiddenIncome_ » Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:17 pm

Whatever happens, I think there will be lots of envious eyes at McLaren looking toward the RB Garage