2020 pecking order prediction

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Jambier
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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GPR-A wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:37 pm
Manoah2u wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:08 pm
I'm inclined to think that if Merc DID NOT have the DAS-system, that RedBull and Ferrari could get them by 'surprise' in melbourne, and perhaps see a RedBull win, a Mercedes 2nd and Ferrari 3rd. DAS will keep them at the front though.
After the summer break, it's gonna be full on war.
SO what's the estimated performance differentiating DAS and non-DAS on Mercedes according you? No one seems to have a clue about it yet. No one even seems to know exactly what is the benefit of DAS. The debate is still on as to if that is in violation of parc-ferme in qualifying. If yes, then it might be a race only system. For Melbourne, it's all about qualifying position and a good start that matters. Don't you think you have over-estimated the DAS performance impact, unless you have a very clear idea?
I think DAS won't be used in Melbourne.

Bottas said it, it will be useful for some tracks, and not on some others.

He made his quick lap without it last week, and in low power mode on the engine. Still, the lap was very fast

Manoah2u
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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GPR-A wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:37 pm
Manoah2u wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:08 pm
I'm inclined to think that if Merc DID NOT have the DAS-system, that RedBull and Ferrari could get them by 'surprise' in melbourne, and perhaps see a RedBull win, a Mercedes 2nd and Ferrari 3rd. DAS will keep them at the front though.
After the summer break, it's gonna be full on war.
SO what's the estimated performance differentiating DAS and non-DAS on Mercedes according you? No one seems to have a clue about it yet. No one even seems to know exactly what is the benefit of DAS. The debate is still on as to if that is in violation of parc-ferme in qualifying. If yes, then it might be a race only system. For Melbourne, it's all about qualifying position and a good start that matters. Don't you think you have over-estimated the DAS performance impact, unless you have a very clear idea?
i'll answer first with my own words above
50% reasoning 50% guesswork 100% fictional.
That said, i'll elaborate a bit on my thoughts and assumptions.

First of all, there's certainly much more to it than people think right now.
If it's a marginal gain, there is no way they will implement it with such complexity for just a season alone.
Next year, after all, as mentioned, it should not be available anymore, but who knows.

There must be far more gain to achieve from it then percieved.

There are the obvious things and then there are the things not yet either concidered or able to be theorized.

Adjusting the straight-line toe clearly is part of the game, but has significant implications.
Mercedes is one of the teams that has the clearest and best understanding of the tires and as such is able to gain the most from how they handle the tires. Adjusting the toe at straight line to give it less friction will positively influence tire wear.
And it will be very, very significant. They can prevent overheating at high speeds, or perhaps better phrased: cool them down even better, one aspect of less friction. and again, less friction cuases less wear, so it's exponential gain.

even though the differences in 'shape' or position are marginal, we know how the most marginal of aero changes have huge implications, and without any doubt the altered position of the front wheels at straight lines due to the DAS will have, without any doubt, also aerodynamic benefits.

Knowing that the wheels will be blown again this year, it'll only have bigger effects alltogether.

And, as mentioned, because of the straighter aim, and less friction, straight line speed WILL increase aswell.

SO, the above here, is all simple, clear and logical reasoning of the benefits of the DAS system and certainly a benefit compared to a car that does NOT have that system.

That said, what more might happen underneath, that we are not aware of?

This starts the hypothetical 'fantasy' realm, but, let's concider the fact that with the steering wheel moving, there thus MUST be certain movement in (suspension) parts. What would be worth investigating is just HOW those parts move and WHERE they are positioned. Because if Mercedes has found a way that they can direct air through a duct within the tub where the DAS system is operated, and there are parts MOVING in that channel, then they could even find additional gain by channeling air when the DAS parts are moved. They would be confined in the tub, so first of all hidden from view.

Point i'm trying to make, is that we have what we can simply deduct visually, and then there is undoubtedly the part that we cannot see and therefor cannot be sure if there's more or if that's all there is.
Going by the confidence the team has, especially compared to the former seasons, i FEEL that there is more to it.
They are sandbagging more then ever, and are even open about it.

Hence my deduction that the DAS system, especially concidering the development costs, the risk of illegality, and above all, that it will only serve 1 season, there MUST be BIG benefits from it.

As for qually: it has no problems with parc fermé conditions. As mentioned, the wheel returns to it's correct position under braking, so in parc fermé, there is no issue. If one would concider that during the race the wheel is in a different position and thus different than qualifying, then that would apply for the DRS system to, as it's not activated in parc fermé, so that would be a dead end too. It is legal, it's that simple.

So to go to qually: not only has it got it's clear benefits DURING the race, it has during qualification aswell.
Less tire wear, so tires can be pushed even further to their limits with less tire degredation over 1 lap, hence more performance, a clear benefit compared to the other teams. The fact that DAS will reduce tire wear means the impact of starting on the same tire as Qually is lessened aswell. And again, less tire wear, more grip, better operating within that window, higher top speed, and what we don't YET know, will also benefit during qually, from all seasons in 2020 even more important if the competition is closer, as it could decide who will win or not from pole position.

So yeah, i definately do believe DAS has huge effects, not unlike F-duct for example, and then the copied F-Duct were not as beneficial as the original Mclaren version. the F-duct may not have given Mclaren a title, but they would have been further off without it. RedBull would have been even further ahead back then if they invented it and the rest had to copy them.
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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I would expect the best use of this may be on safety car restarts. If they can heat the tyres this easy as well, that could be super helpful during a race.

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MtthsMlw
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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Merc
Ferrari
RB
RP
Renault
McLaren
Alpha
Haas
Alfa
Williams

don't @ me

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godlameroso
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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According to AMuS RB is within .2 of Mercedes?
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PlatinumZealot
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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godlameroso wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:37 pm
According to AMuS RB is within .2 of Mercedes?
I hope not. That is too close for comfort.
.. OG.. OG.. OG.. OG..

the EDGE
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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Still way too early to make ANY meaningful predictions. Anyone who thinks they can are just kidding themselves

Like 2019 when Ferrari reigned supreme and McLaren were 9th!!

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Wouter
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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godlameroso wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:37 pm
According to AMuS RB is within .2 of Mercedes?
In summary:
RBR thought to be 0.2 seconds behind Mercedes until yesterday. Yesterday they were even a little faster.
These last two days there will be a major aero upgrade, which must be worth 0.3 sec.

Red Bull will aus den Daten der ersten drei Testtage errechnet haben, dass man bereinigt um die Faktoren Tankinhalt, Reifen und Motormodus zwei Zehntel hinter Mercedes liegt. „Am vierten Tag haben sogar wir etwas besser ausgeschaut", meinte Teamchef Christian Horner.

Red Bull setzt jetzt seine ganze Hoffnung auf das große Aero-Paket, das in den letzten beiden Tagen in Barcelona den ersten Praxistest absolvieren soll. Neu sind der Frontflügel, der Kapuzenflügel, der Unterboden, die Bargeboards und die Leitbleche vor den Seitenkästen.
Angeblich soll das Upgrade drei Zehntel wert sein.
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/formel-1/red-bull-upgrad e-f1-test-barcelona-2020/

Wass85
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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PlatinumZealot wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:02 pm
godlameroso wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:37 pm
According to AMuS RB is within .2 of Mercedes?
I hope not. That is too close for comfort.
That depends if that 2 tenths is based on Albon or Verstappen.... 😊

DChemTech
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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@Edge of course we can't be sure. That doesn't make it less fun to give it a try and see how far we get.

So, here it goes.
WCC:
Corona

(Ok, let's hope not.)

WCC:
1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari

No matter how much I like to be wrong, just have to be realistic. Mercedes has a top car, one good driver and one superb one. RB seems to be doing well (some twitchy-bum issues aside) and I do think they're close, but even if the car is equal, I rank Bottas a bit higher than Albon. Ferrari... they're...well... either they are properly sandbagging, or are telling the truth saying they're not quite there. In that case, they're so bad at being honest that it still seems they're bagging. Anyway, the longrun seems sufficiently better than RP. And if they're close to RB, I think they'll lose on the Ferrari-isms.

4. Racing Point
5. McLaren
6. AlphaTauri

These are close, I think. Pink Mercedes likely the best car, and Perez-on-steam is a very good driver, but then there's Stroll. So, McLaren has the better driver pairing - only drivers count 20%, car 80%. AlphaTauri is close, but the pseudo-RB15 is going to be too much RB15 for Gasly.

7. Alfa Romeo

Not bad a car, but with one driver over his prima, and another just not that prime, they're going to be the beta-alpha.

8. Renault
9. Haas
10. Williams

I just have a general bad feeling about Renault. They don't seem to be very fast, they aren't running a lot, they're not majorly invested in this year anyway. They may even fight with Haas - Haas just doesn't have Ricciardo. And Williams, they stepped up, a lot. But they need to step up a lot-lot to compete. Hopefully they can bring the fight to Haas and Renault, but I don't dare to put them higher in the ranking yet.

WDC:

1. Verstappen. Despite hating chauvinism, I'm letting the orange goggles have the best of me. But either the WDC pressure is going to make him majestic, or he's going to overdrive and lose out to Bottas too.
2. Hamilton
3. Bottas
4. Leclerc
5. Albon
6. Vettel. I hope I'm wrong on this, he deserves a bit of a break. But the hybrid era cars just don't seem to be it for Vettel. And since they weren't the past years, I don't think they'll be now.

7. Perez. He's smiling and shining in that pink beast.
8. Sainz. Ever the smooth operator.
9. Norris
10. Stroll
11. Kvyat
12. Raikkonen
13. Ricciardo
14. Gasly.
15. Giovannazi
16. Magnussen
17. Ocon
18. Grosjean
19. Russell
20. Latifi

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Big Tea
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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I wonder if Red Bull have a fix for the twitchiness but chose not to put it on display until the first race. A 'new' stabilising tweak that would be nice to get the first handful of races done before everyone copies it for Europe.
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godlameroso
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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The twitchiness comes from the cold, and the package they're testing. We likely won't see the new rear wing this week.
The height of cultivation is really nothing special. It is merely simplicity; the ability to express the utmost with the minimum. Mr.Lee

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Big Tea
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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godlameroso wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:41 pm
The twitchiness comes from the cold, and the package they're testing. We likely won't see the new rear wing this week.
It seems to be inconsistent too. Same corner same speed and position one is fine next is across the road.
Possibly wind you think? (not the driver, at the track :D )
We are standing on the shoulders of Giants. So don't kick.

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dren
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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Max WDC in the last race of the year. Mercedes wins constructor before the last race. Perez gets his first win at Baku.
Honda!

matt_b
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Re: 2020 pecking order prediction

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Easy prediction 7th WDC for Lewis Hamilton along with breaking the most race wins record.

1. Hamilton
2. Bottas
3. Verstappen
4. LeClerc
5. Vettel
6. Albon
7. Perez
8. Sainz
9. Norris
10. Stroll
11. Ricciardo
12. Ocon
13. Raikkonen
14. Gasly
15. Kvyat
16. Magnussen
17. Giovannazi
18. Grosjean
19. Russell
20. Latifi

Constructors Mercedes wrapping it up early.

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Racing Point
5. McLaren
6. Renault
7. Alpha Tauri
8. Alpha Romeo
9. Hass
10. Williams