Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Manoah2u wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:46 pm
Several news outlets claim that the 'new' South-African Corona mutation is immune against the (current) vaccin, so all this is far, far from over.
Until the scientists figure out exactly what the mutations are, we won't know either way. If the protein spikes are the same then we're ok. If that has changed then there may be problems. Work is being done even as we type.
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V12-POWER
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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sorry guys but this is all far from over, the "pandemic" and the "virus" situation will only get worse. The covid 21 virus will be the one that is legit dangerous, which is the "mutation" news media are all talking about.

The vaccine will do more harm than good, people are having trust issues towards mRNA vaccines with reason.

as of now the 2021 season is as unpredictable as 2020

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adrianjordan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Sieper wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:10 pm
The vaccines are a totally new way of preventing getting a RNA (virus) based sickness. It actually contains part of the RNA code that produces the Spikes that are used by the real diseases RNA to enter your cells. Your own immune systeem will see the spikes, and will learn how to deal with them, EXACTLY as would happen if you contract COVID-19, but without getting sick as the rest of the RNA strand is not copied into the vaccine. After a second round off teaching your immune system what the spikes look like your immune system will be capable of recognizing and attacking spike RNA with very high efficiency. Almost 100%. I actually do think it really is a silver bullet. Our DNA research is now advanced far enough to be able to do this. It is like the change from analog to digital electronics (if I would have to make a comparison).
Not as totally new ad the media are making out. The technology has been in Stage 1 and Stage 2 trials for years, but the storage and distribution costs meant it never progressed to stage 3. Obviously Covid has made those costs bearable.
Lando Norris: "Such a great driver"
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Tommy Cookers wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:10 pm
henry wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:29 pm
Like @Big Tea I don’t think a vaccine is a sliver bullet. I don’t think it’s known whether a vaccinated person is infectious or not. Nor are the vaccines 100% effective, if 20 drivers are vaccinated some (a couple maybe) may not gain immunity. My understanding is vaccinations can be effective on a population but can’t be guaranteed for any particular individual.
.....
agreed both the 'American' vaccines seem proven (by 'robust' tests) to reduce deaths by 90+% (actual body counts)
but the 'UK-Oxford' vaccine (more conservative design - and tests?) just introduced seems unproven at reducing deaths
eg for the conveniently changed-dosage tests the subject group wasn't age-representative
the so-called 'full protection' of some widely-used vaccines can be as low as 50%
(ie I wouldn't rely on the 'Oxford' to save me - so wouldn't spectate at a race in 2021 even if it was allowed)

please if you can tell me/show me how I'm wrong

btw remember there was a GP season in 1939 and in 1940
Good thing you don't work for the NHS then as we'll all be getting the Oxford one. Indeed a friend of mine who is a GP tells me the NHS will not be ordering any more of the Pziser one, so the UK will be relying on the Oxford vaccine.

FWIW my friend understands the science a whole lot more than me and thinks the Oxford one is preferable.

It's also important to remember that the effectiveness rates we're seeing talked about for these vaccines a far better than, for example, the seasonal flu jab.
Lando Norris: "Such a great driver"
Daniel Ricciardo: "Darren" 🤣

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Sieper
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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adrianjordan wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:52 am
Sieper wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:10 pm
The vaccines are a totally new way of preventing getting a RNA (virus) based sickness. It actually contains part of the RNA code that produces the Spikes that are used by the real diseases RNA to enter your cells. Your own immune systeem will see the spikes, and will learn how to deal with them, EXACTLY as would happen if you contract COVID-19, but without getting sick as the rest of the RNA strand is not copied into the vaccine. After a second round off teaching your immune system what the spikes look like your immune system will be capable of recognizing and attacking spike RNA with very high efficiency. Almost 100%. I actually do think it really is a silver bullet. Our DNA research is now advanced far enough to be able to do this. It is like the change from analog to digital electronics (if I would have to make a comparison).
Not as totally new ad the media are making out. The technology has been in Stage 1 and Stage 2 trials for years, but the storage and distribution costs meant it never progressed to stage 3. Obviously Covid has made those costs bearable.
Thanks for the info, also, I realize these weren’t started from scratch, but still, a decade ago we would have had no options at all. Now the normal economic restrictions mean nothing. You would hope on a bit more foresight but the way politics are executed these days make me fearfull.
Just a personal interest, a Family recreating a WW2 May 1940 Dutch warbird from scratch: https://www.facebook.com/FlyingFokkerD21/

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El Scorchio
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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adrianjordan wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:55 am
Tommy Cookers wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:10 pm
henry wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:29 pm
Like @Big Tea I don’t think a vaccine is a sliver bullet. I don’t think it’s known whether a vaccinated person is infectious or not. Nor are the vaccines 100% effective, if 20 drivers are vaccinated some (a couple maybe) may not gain immunity. My understanding is vaccinations can be effective on a population but can’t be guaranteed for any particular individual.
.....
agreed both the 'American' vaccines seem proven (by 'robust' tests) to reduce deaths by 90+% (actual body counts)
but the 'UK-Oxford' vaccine (more conservative design - and tests?) just introduced seems unproven at reducing deaths
eg for the conveniently changed-dosage tests the subject group wasn't age-representative
the so-called 'full protection' of some widely-used vaccines can be as low as 50%
(ie I wouldn't rely on the 'Oxford' to save me - so wouldn't spectate at a race in 2021 even if it was allowed)

please if you can tell me/show me how I'm wrong

btw remember there was a GP season in 1939 and in 1940
Good thing you don't work for the NHS then as we'll all be getting the Oxford one. Indeed a friend of mine who is a GP tells me the NHS will not be ordering any more of the Pziser one, so the UK will be relying on the Oxford vaccine.

FWIW my friend understands the science a whole lot more than me and thinks the Oxford one is preferable.

It's also important to remember that the effectiveness rates we're seeing talked about for these vaccines a far better than, for example, the seasonal flu jab.
Of course the 'beat down' and questioning the Oxford vaccine has been getting internationally- particularly in the US- is partly to do with other countries protecting their own financial interests and promoting their own vaccines. It's a bad look if they have to buy in or defer to a cheaper, easier to store and similarly effective vaccine from another country rather than use their own, even it if ends up costing ten times the amount- and we are talking billions of dollars difference here. Politics of course will always rear it's head, even with things like this.

Tommy Cookers
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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politics schmolitics !!

iirc the Pfizer 'vaccine testing' found that .....
106 people died without the vaccine and 6 died with the vaccine - hence the benefit quantified as 95% or whatever
a 95% reduction in the chances of death I can understand

afaik the AZ Oxford 'vaccine testing' had 1? death without the vaccine and none with
how was that a 'test programme' ?
RETRO-EDIT - the Lancet article 8th Dec says ....
'we cannot infer efficacy in older adults'
(only 12% were 55 or over - and none of these had the dosage that 'was' to be adopted as more efficacious)
NOTE but the UK has just now chosen a 12 week interval between initial and final dose

otherwise having a 10-15% chance of dying from Covid exposure I need to know what I do after getting Oxford-vaccinated
carry on hiding (unless buying food) until almost the entire UK population has been vaccinated ? .....

just asking what seems to be a simple engineer-type question .....
and thanks though for all the responses .....
Last edited by Tommy Cookers on Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Sieper
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Well, the Oxford (astra Zeneca) vaccine is being injected as we speak (in the UK) If people who have been vaccinated still get sick we will hear soon enough.
Just a personal interest, a Family recreating a WW2 May 1940 Dutch warbird from scratch: https://www.facebook.com/FlyingFokkerD21/

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Big Tea
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Sieper wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:13 pm
Well, the Oxford (astra Zeneca) vaccine is being injected as we speak (in the UK) If people who have been vaccinated still get sick we will hear soon enough.
(in a very shortened form) with the AZ protection begins from 6 days after jab takes 20 days for full effect.
Of the 44,000 test patents 0 people had to go to ICU after this time (2 in the pre 20 days) of having the FIRST jab

Other good news is a study in Newcastle followed 1100 NHS frontline staff who had Covid in the first wave.
None of them re contracted it. 120 reported covid like symptoms but none were covid.
We are sitting on the shoulders of giants so we can see more things than they can

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Sieper
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Those are some very positive signs. Unfortunately Lando just contracted COVID. Hopefully the paddock can get vaccinated before the season starts.
Just a personal interest, a Family recreating a WW2 May 1940 Dutch warbird from scratch: https://www.facebook.com/FlyingFokkerD21/

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nzjrs
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Big Tea wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:05 pm
Sieper wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:13 pm
Well, the Oxford (astra Zeneca) vaccine is being injected as we speak (in the UK) If people who have been vaccinated still get sick we will hear soon enough.
Other good news is a study in Newcastle followed 1100 NHS frontline staff who had Covid in the first wave.
None of them re contracted it. 120 reported covid like symptoms but none were covid.
Just to be sure, this second paragraph was independent of your first - they were not vaccinated or anything like that. It was purely a reinfection / immunity study?

Fwiw a good friend of mine, 32yr old has had covid twice, both times decently symptomatic and feeling bad. Both cases 3 months separate from one another. Test confirmed both times. But I agree with you he must be the outlier now we have enough data.

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Big Tea
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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nzjrs wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:37 pm
Big Tea wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:05 pm
Sieper wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:13 pm
Well, the Oxford (astra Zeneca) vaccine is being injected as we speak (in the UK) If people who have been vaccinated still get sick we will hear soon enough.
Other good news is a study in Newcastle followed 1100 NHS frontline staff who had Covid in the first wave.
None of them re contracted it. 120 reported covid like symptoms but none were covid.
Just to be sure, this second paragraph was independent of your first - they were not vaccinated or anything like that. It was purely a reinfection / immunity study?

Fwiw a good friend of mine, 32yr old has had covid twice, both times decently symptomatic and feeling bad. Both cases 3 months separate from one another. Test confirmed both times. But I agree with you he must be the outlier now we have enough data.
Was the sample positive in both cases or just showed antibodies? As I posted above, some showed symptoms but did not have the 'actual' virus, just the antibodies from previous infection?

Could not find the paper I was reading,(think my access has timed out) but here is one in the press

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech ... laims.html



Edit, here is a precis of it https://www.journalofinfection.com/acti ... %2930781-7
We are sitting on the shoulders of giants so we can see more things than they can

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nzjrs
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Big Tea wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:57 pm
Was the sample positive in both cases or just showed antibodies? As I posted above, some showed symptoms but did not have the 'actual' virus, just the antibodies from previous infection?
Both times PCR positive, with a negative PCR in between too. He's a molecular biologist PhD and was very annoyed he didn't keep a sample from the first infection to sequence it (and compare with the second). He was quite sick/symptomatic both times too.

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Big Tea
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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nzjrs wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 4:36 pm
Big Tea wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:57 pm
Was the sample positive in both cases or just showed antibodies? As I posted above, some showed symptoms but did not have the 'actual' virus, just the antibodies from previous infection?
Both times PCR positive, with a negative PCR in between too. He's a molecular biologist PhD and was very annoyed he didn't keep a sample from the first infection to sequence it (and compare with the second). He was quite sick/symptomatic both times too.
Thats a concern
We are sitting on the shoulders of giants so we can see more things than they can

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adrianjordan
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Re: Will Covid 19 impact 2021 season?

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Big Tea wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:05 pm
Sieper wrote:
Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:13 pm
Well, the Oxford (astra Zeneca) vaccine is being injected as we speak (in the UK) If people who have been vaccinated still get sick we will hear soon enough.
(in a very shortened form) with the AZ protection begins from 6 days after jab takes 20 days for full effect.
Of the 44,000 test patents 0 people had to go to ICU after this time (2 in the pre 20 days) of having the FIRST jab

Other good news is a study in Newcastle followed 1100 NHS frontline staff who had Covid in the first wave.
None of them re contracted it. 120 reported covid like symptoms but none were covid.
We have had 2 staff members that I know of test positive again after the original infection was over 6 months ago and they have had negative PCR tests in the interim.

I've just ordered an antibody test to see whether I still have them.
Lando Norris: "Such a great driver"
Daniel Ricciardo: "Darren" 🤣