Which team will be first to dethrone Mercedes? Speculation

[haza]

Question to all which team will be the first to end mercs dominance

Personally I’d think McLaren or red bull

[proteus]

Question to all which team will be the first to end mercs dominance

Personally I’d think McLaren or red bull

No way it will be Mclaren, especially since they returned to get supplied with their engines. For RedBull, we are waiting from 2014 and they are more or less as far as they were. Some seasons they are a bit closer, others further away.

The only contender that remains is Ferrari, when they get their act together and when Liberty will decide they need another champion. There is a small chance for Alpine as well.

[Big Tea]

As Merc F1 is now owned by a triumvirate I think the highest possibility is internal strife in the team. If this does happen, Possibly the lead would switch to Aston?
With for instance Woolf at Aston, possibly with Hamilton it would be a close run thing considering they have the same engine.

Other than that, the look of things suggests Red Bull is the closest, but a historic lookback suggests Ferrari to pull their finger out for a couple of years again.
They have the funds, the pull to get the personnel and the clout to 'suggest' to the FIA/ F1 a suitable direction of development.

If I had to put cash on it

1 Ferrari
2 Red Bull
3 AM

Things could happen and Mclaren be up there, Nice, but I don't think so

[the EDGE]

As Merc F1 is now owned by a triumvirate I think the highest possibility is internal strife in the team. If this does happen, Possibly the lead would switch to Aston?
With for instance Woolf at Aston, possibly with Hamilton it would be a close run thing considering they have the same engine.

Other than that, the look of things suggests Red Bull is the closest, but a historic lookback suggests Ferrari to pull their finger out for a couple of years again.
They have the funds, the pull to get the personnel and the clout to 'suggest' to the FIA/ F1 a suitable direction of development.

If I had to put cash on it

1 Ferrari
2 Red Bull
3 AM

Things could happen and Mclaren be up there, Nice, but I don't think so

you do realise that Toto owns 1/3 of the the Mercedes right? Why would he suddenly switch to AM and de-value his investment? ( and yes, I know he is a minor investor in the AM project too)

Ineos & Mercedes clearly have zero intention of interfering with the running of the team & now the budget cap is in place there is little reason for them to fall out, unless say a team who they supply the entire car with the exception of the external aero surfaces with 2 sub-par drivers suddenly starts to beat them

[the EDGE]

In the short term there is only 1 challenger that could upset Mercedes domination and that is of course Redbell. The others are simply too far behind.

The change of rules in '22 does provide an opportunity for all teams to close this gap but lets be honest, Mercedes still have to be considered favourites. I guess a lot has to do with what the final engine agreement with Redbull Honda ends up being and how close performance is when the freeze finally happens

If the Mercedes PU end up with a big advantage then its unlikely they will be beat any time soon but if they are then I would say it would be McLaren that could succeed them as Williams are only starting their recovery and AM use so much of Mercedes parts they practically have the same car, excluding aero surfaces, and given how restrictive the new aero rules are, would surely find themselves in the same position Mercedes would be in

Should engine performance converge anytime soon then that opens the door for most likely RB, but also Ferrari to take control but I would definitely count out any car (not engine) customer teams full stop.

[Big Tea]

As Merc F1 is now owned by a triumvirate I think the highest possibility is internal strife in the team. If this does happen, Possibly the lead would switch to Aston?
With for instance Woolf at Aston, possibly with Hamilton it would be a close run thing considering they have the same engine.

Other than that, the look of things suggests Red Bull is the closest, but a historic lookback suggests Ferrari to pull their finger out for a couple of years again.
They have the funds, the pull to get the personnel and the clout to 'suggest' to the FIA/ F1 a suitable direction of development.

If I had to put cash on it

1 Ferrari
2 Red Bull
3 AM

Things could happen and Mclaren be up there, Nice, but I don't think so

you do realise that Toto owns 1/3 of the the Mercedes right? Why would he suddenly switch to AM and de-value his investment? ( and yes, I know he is a minor investor in the AM project too)

Ineos & Mercedes clearly have zero intention of interfering with the running of the team & now the budget cap is in place there is little reason for them to fall out, unless say a team who they supply the entire car with the exception of the external aero surfaces with 2 sub-par drivers suddenly starts to beat them

If there was a split in the team, it is one third likely to involve him, and he would be looking to leave, and having his finger in AM, that would be the most likely destination . That's what I base the whole idea on.

[El Scorchio]

Unless something changes, Red Bull. They are the only team close to them.

Give it 3-4 years and maybe Alpine or Ferrari if they get their hands out of their arses. I cant see a team Mercedes supplies overtaking them.

[Jolle]

For the short term (2022) it could be any well funded team, if Mercedes had it wrong (as they did as McLaren in 2009) and a team like RedBull could have a chance. In the long term, only a well funded works team has the potential. So either Alpine or more likely Ferrari.

[Stu]

Once the primary markets for Mercedes start to ban (or limit) ICE vehicles in favour of whatever follows they will cease racing F1 anyway (it will have served its promotional purpose for them). However you look at manufacturers in F1 and wonder about budgets they only spend a fraction of their promotion/PR budget on it (and Mercedes now spend significantly less than when they came back (and purchased Brawn GP).

[F1Krof]

Easy, Red Bull. And it will happen sooner than one might think. I believe it will be no later than this season. Max & RBR will be crowned champions.

[the EDGE]

Once the primary markets for Mercedes start to ban (or limit) ICE vehicles in favour of whatever follows they will cease racing F1 anyway (it will have served its promotional purpose for them). However you look at manufacturers in F1 and wonder about budgets they only spend a fraction of their promotion/PR budget on it (and Mercedes now spend significantly less than when they came back (and purchased Brawn GP).

Why just Mercedes? Why not the other manufactures too?

Merc only owns 1/3 or the F1 team, and as you say, it costs, or will cost them next to nothing, they may even make a profit

There is no doubt F1 sells cars & bring millions in free advertising & let’s be honest, serious racing with electric batteries is years away, if possible at all. They just don’t have the capacity required.

The switch to bio-fuels is already on the right track, and the PU suppliers will ultimately shape the new spec engines for 25/26 in the direction they want to go

But that said, what if the 3 suppliers did quit? Is it such a big loss? I don’t see the other 7 teams quitting because there not there for relevance, they’re there to race, they don’t care if the PUs are eco-friendly, and I’m sure there’s plenty of people out there who would snap the 3 teams up (although I very much doubt Ferrari would quit either so only 2 teams really)

Let’s say they switched back to NA V8s and we were left with 10 teams still racing the best racing cars in the world, with the fastest speeds, and able to more than 10 laps of real race tracks, not pop-up tiny tracks in city centres

Do you think people would stop watching? Or sponsors would stop sponsoring? Or Drivers would stop driving?

[Big Tea]

Once the primary markets for Mercedes start to ban (or limit) ICE vehicles in favour of whatever follows they will cease racing F1 anyway (it will have served its promotional purpose for them). However you look at manufacturers in F1 and wonder about budgets they only spend a fraction of their promotion/PR budget on it (and Mercedes now spend significantly less than when they came back (and purchased Brawn GP).

I doubt that. You see adverts for cars on paper on top of boards on top of wood, metal or brick when you look at adverts.
Merc do not make buildings, wood or paper, it is getting their name seen that they advertise for.

Yes it is a nice little bonus for them to have actually produced the advert carrier in their factories, but Red Bull do not sell cars nor do many of the sponsors on the cars that do.

I think I remember reading that the team over all gives a profit too, so as long as its an earner, would they pull out?
Possibly if they thought they would get bad publicity from it?

[ringo]

Redbull seemed to missed out on a trick by mercedes last year according to one of their engineers. They know what they overlooked, and if they know this and will make the changes for 2021, then i suspect they may have the best car on the grid.
The next strongest team would be mclaren. I am somewhat convinced of what they had shown last year. The car was actually quite good in the race, and improved a lot in qualifying at the end of the season. The Merc power plant will make a huge difference for them. Also they have the pedigree to match redbull.

Ferrari i am not sure about. I think this is a team that is dependent on loopholes and politics to get a technical edge.

[raymondu999]

Redbull seemed to missed out on a trick by mercedes last year according to one of their engineers.

Interesting.source pls? Would love to read up on it

[raymondu999]

Easy, Red Bull. And it will happen sooner than one might think. I believe it will be no later than this season. Max & RBR will be crowned champions.

Interesting. How do you reckon? I mean the cars obviously dont change much from 2020, so pecking order would be rather similar