Which team will be first to dethrone Mercedes? Speculation

[Andres125sx]

I have a hard time getting onboard with Ferrari being the team to unseat Mercedes because they have been runner up from 2015-2019 while spending the most on the grid. For 2022 they won't be able to spend their way out of their problems, which has been their greatest advantage in the past.
If Red Bull is able to close a deal to keep the Honda power unit (A very big if) I think they will be the ones to beat Mercedes some day.

Correction, Ferrari has been runner up at least since 2010, wich is the reason I´d never bet a cent they will be the team dethronning Mercedes.

And when it looked like they were making the final step, they were cheating


As an Alonso fan, I hope it will be Alpine, but will not make any bet either

[TimW]

Because of the rulebook overhaul of 2022, I think any of the bigger teams, used to focus on developing their own concepts rather than copying, will have a good shot. So Mercedes, Red bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Renault,... probability in that order.
I think the chance of Mercedes winning the 2023 title is higher than for 2022. In 2022 somebody else may get a better car, but then I would expect Mercedes to catch up / overtake them in development.

[Just_a_fan]

How much of the 2022 cars is going to be open to development by the teams? If it's a limited scope then it will bring the teams together as they'll quickly come to the same sort of answers. Then it will be down to the PU and the driver.

[Jolle]

How much of the 2022 cars is going to be open to development by the teams? If it's a limited scope then it will bring the teams together as they'll quickly come to the same sort of answers. Then it will be down to the PU and the driver.

Even in full spec series you see a clear difference. It's not just the PU or driver, it's the team, how they understand the car how the driver is part of that team, etc etc etc.

[Just_a_fan]

How much of the 2022 cars is going to be open to development by the teams? If it's a limited scope then it will bring the teams together as they'll quickly come to the same sort of answers. Then it will be down to the PU and the driver.

Even in full spec series you see a clear difference. It's not just the PU or driver, it's the team, how they understand the car how the driver is part of that team, etc etc etc.

Indeed so, but I think the difference from front of grid to back will be smaller just because similar downforce levels means similar potential lap times in the car. No matter who is engineering it or driving it, last year's Williams is always going to be much slower than last year's Mercedes or Red Bull because its potential lap time is much slower. But if the cars are much more similar, the difference between their potential lap times is much smaller. That's the point I'm trying to make.

[GalacticHitchHiker]

I have a hard time getting onboard with Ferrari being the team to unseat Mercedes because they have been runner up from 2015-2019 while spending the most on the grid. For 2022 they won't be able to spend their way out of their problems, which has been their greatest advantage in the past.
If Red Bull is able to close a deal to keep the Honda power unit (A very big if) I think they will be the ones to beat Mercedes some day.

Correction, Ferrari has been runner up at least since 2010, wich is the reason I´d never bet a cent they will be the team dethronning Mercedes.

And when it looked like they were making the final step, they were cheating


As an Alonso fan, I hope it will be Alpine, but will not make any bet either

They were only 4th in the WCC in 2014, is why I gave the range that I did. Even while spending the most of any team they can't maintain 2nd place.