Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Big Tea
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Big Tea » Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:17 pm

Tommy Cookers wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:20 pm
well it seems to me that the UK may be ahead of Spain in 'decarbonisation' of heating
for reasons including our reduction of 'all energy' CO2 emission by 43% already
NOTE TO SELF - natural gas (methane) firing has 73% of the CO2 of oil firing
and condensing boilers (flues) are more efficient than non-condensing (condensing of course is now available with oil firing)
73% of bad still looks bad (and maybe explains the UK woodburner heating campaign)

my point is further UK decarbonisation (to 80% of 'all energy') means the huge/impossible reduction in housing heat loss
so it's easier for the Govt to make us have EVs (given that people buy new cars anyway)
so 'they' are misrepresenting the benefits of this - to us and of course to themselves
by endlessly pretending that EVs are zero-carbon and by making us feel frightened and guilty
We never seem to see the trade off figures of things like replacing boilers, windows, car etc where they actuall include production and disposal of the replacement. If cars were made to last 15 years the saving would be huge, but business would suffer.
One test is worth a thousand expert opinions

henry
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by henry » Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:31 pm

Big Tea wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:17 pm
Tommy Cookers wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:20 pm
well it seems to me that the UK may be ahead of Spain in 'decarbonisation' of heating
for reasons including our reduction of 'all energy' CO2 emission by 43% already
NOTE TO SELF - natural gas (methane) firing has 73% of the CO2 of oil firing
and condensing boilers (flues) are more efficient than non-condensing (condensing of course is now available with oil firing)
73% of bad still looks bad (and maybe explains the UK woodburner heating campaign)

my point is further UK decarbonisation (to 80% of 'all energy') means the huge/impossible reduction in housing heat loss
so it's easier for the Govt to make us have EVs (given that people buy new cars anyway)
so 'they' are misrepresenting the benefits of this - to us and of course to themselves
by endlessly pretending that EVs are zero-carbon and by making us feel frightened and guilty
We never seem to see the trade off figures of things like replacing boilers, windows, car etc where they actuall include production and disposal of the replacement. If cars were made to last 15 years the saving would be huge, but business would suffer.
In the UK Average age at scrappage in 2015, 13.9 years. An increase to 15 wouldn’t be that much of a change.
Fortune favours the prepared; she has no favourites and takes no sides.
Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty : Tacitus

Big Tea
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Big Tea » Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:39 pm

henry wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:31 pm
Big Tea wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:17 pm
Tommy Cookers wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:20 pm
well it seems to me that the UK may be ahead of Spain in 'decarbonisation' of heating
for reasons including our reduction of 'all energy' CO2 emission by 43% already
NOTE TO SELF - natural gas (methane) firing has 73% of the CO2 of oil firing
and condensing boilers (flues) are more efficient than non-condensing (condensing of course is now available with oil firing)
73% of bad still looks bad (and maybe explains the UK woodburner heating campaign)

my point is further UK decarbonisation (to 80% of 'all energy') means the huge/impossible reduction in housing heat loss
so it's easier for the Govt to make us have EVs (given that people buy new cars anyway)
so 'they' are misrepresenting the benefits of this - to us and of course to themselves
by endlessly pretending that EVs are zero-carbon and by making us feel frightened and guilty
We never seem to see the trade off figures of things like replacing boilers, windows, car etc where they actuall include production and disposal of the replacement. If cars were made to last 15 years the saving would be huge, but business would suffer.
In the UK Average age at scrappage in 2015, 13.9 years. An increase to 15 wouldn’t be that much of a change.
I do not seem to see many over 7 or 8 years old. I had to change my car now as it is approaching the oldest in town and its 6 years. Kia give a 'warranted' 7 years Toyota and Hyundai 5 years everything else seems to be 3 years.
One test is worth a thousand expert opinions

henry
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by henry » Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:58 pm

Big Tea wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:39 pm
henry wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:31 pm
Big Tea wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:17 pm


We never seem to see the trade off figures of things like replacing boilers, windows, car etc where they actuall include production and disposal of the replacement. If cars were made to last 15 years the saving would be huge, but business would suffer.
In the UK Average age at scrappage in 2015, 13.9 years. An increase to 15 wouldn’t be that much of a change.
I do not seem to see many over 7 or 8 years old. I had to change my car now as it is approaching the oldest in town and its 6 years. Kia give a 'warranted' 7 years Toyota and Hyundai 5 years everything else seems to be 3 years.
Personal anecdote is never a good way to run things. That hasn’t stopped many politicians mind you.

Having said which anecdotes are fun. In my home town, which I still visit, 5 years is almost brand new.
Fortune favours the prepared; she has no favourites and takes no sides.
Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty : Tacitus

Big Tea
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Big Tea » Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:54 pm

henry wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:58 pm
Big Tea wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:39 pm
henry wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:31 pm


In the UK Average age at scrappage in 2015, 13.9 years. An increase to 15 wouldn’t be that much of a change.
I do not seem to see many over 7 or 8 years old. I had to change my car now as it is approaching the oldest in town and its 6 years. Kia give a 'warranted' 7 years Toyota and Hyundai 5 years everything else seems to be 3 years.
Personal anecdote is never a good way to run things. That hasn’t stopped many politicians mind you.

Having said which anecdotes are fun. In my home town, which I still visit, 5 years is almost brand new.
You are quite right there. Mind, there are facts, figures and what I see with my own eyes :D
I have been watching traffic pass since I posted, maybe 30 min ago. I do not think I saw a pre 2010 car.
There must be a town somewhere where no car is newer than 1960
One test is worth a thousand expert opinions

AJI
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by AJI » Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:07 am

Big Tea wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:54 pm
There must be a town somewhere where no car is newer than 1960
Havana?

Big Tea
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Big Tea » Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:13 am

AJI wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:07 am
Big Tea wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 5:54 pm
There must be a town somewhere where no car is newer than 1960
Havana?
:D
One test is worth a thousand expert opinions

Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:40 am

Tommy Cookers wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:42 am
the electricity is the lowest-hanging fruit
but this has given people and government the convenient idea that electricity is the problem for decarbonisation
the problem is all energy not just electrical energy
Tommy Cookers wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:20 pm
well it seems to me that the UK may be ahead of Spain in 'decarbonisation' of heating
Sorry but these two quotes look contradictory to me MrCookers.

The government ignore heating as a problem for decarbonisation? Or they´re trying to solve it with good results?

Both statements can´t be true

Tommy Cookers
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Tommy Cookers » Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:29 pm

heating has long since been decarbonised insofar as replacing oil firing with natural gas firing can 'decarbonise'
this is not a huge decarbonisation because natural gas gives about 72% of the CO2 that oil firing does
(about 55% comparing condensing NG boilers with non-condensing oil boilers - but non-con NG 'fires' are retained)
say 60% overall

so the next step beyond 60% is to reduce the amount of heat required - but this is very difficult
it means changing the building not changing the boiler
it's not low-hanging fruit

but EVs seem to offer low-hanging fruit - if all electricity is low or zero carbon
or if we pretend all electricity is low or zero carbon

Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:02 am

So you agree nobody is ignoring heating, don´t you?


I´m not sure if agree with your statement about EVs being the low hanging fruit and heating not.

There are products like Acksol (nano-sealant wich waterproof and isolate) or Korund (nano-ceramic balls wich improve any isolation by a factor of 10) wich drastically improve building isolation (thus drastically reducing heating demands) much faster than electricity is completely switched to zero emissions

And I´m sure you know what a passive house is, right? They´re not new, but it´s now when they´re receiving proper exposure to reduce heating demands

So I´m not sure about the reason you repeateadly talk about electricity being the carrot in front of the donkey. It´s not, it´s just one of those fields we must change to stop ruining atmosphere balance, and all field are being faced, nobody is focusing on EVs and ignoring the rest, all of them are being faced

Big Mangalhit
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Big Mangalhit » Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:39 am

henry wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:58 pm
Big Tea wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:39 pm
henry wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:31 pm


In the UK Average age at scrappage in 2015, 13.9 years. An increase to 15 wouldn’t be that much of a change.
I do not seem to see many over 7 or 8 years old. I had to change my car now as it is approaching the oldest in town and its 6 years. Kia give a 'warranted' 7 years Toyota and Hyundai 5 years everything else seems to be 3 years.
Personal anecdote is never a good way to run things. That hasn’t stopped many politicians mind you.

Having said which anecdotes are fun. In my home town, which I still visit, 5 years is almost brand new.
I agree with you in anecdotes but facts can also be misinterpreted. The UK average might be 13,9 but I doubt the median is anywhere close to that number, that's why you don't see many cars with that age around. That number can be highly inflated by a small percentage of cars that are much much older and still around or still licensed (not declared as destroyed might contribute as well I dunno).

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:44 am

You need to go to the right (wrong) areas to see the older cars. Go to the sink estates and you'll see plenty of cars that are 10-15 years old because that's what people living there can afford.
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henry
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by henry » Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:07 am

Big Mangalhit wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:39 am
henry wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:58 pm
Big Tea wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:39 pm


I do not seem to see many over 7 or 8 years old. I had to change my car now as it is approaching the oldest in town and its 6 years. Kia give a 'warranted' 7 years Toyota and Hyundai 5 years everything else seems to be 3 years.
Personal anecdote is never a good way to run things. That hasn’t stopped many politicians mind you.

Having said which anecdotes are fun. In my home town, which I still visit, 5 years is almost brand new.
I agree with you in anecdotes but facts can also be misinterpreted. The UK average might be 13,9 but I doubt the median is anywhere close to that number, that's why you don't see many cars with that age around. That number can be highly inflated by a small percentage of cars that are much much older and still around or still licensed (not declared as destroyed might contribute as well I dunno).
Agreed, the average can be misleading and I tend to look for medians when I’m considering published data. However there would have to quite a skew to inflate to a point where cars that can last 15 years would make a very large difference.

Anecdotally I would suggest that many cars do not get scrapped when they are beyond economic repair, they get scrapped because people want something newer/better and the market for old cars is finite.
Fortune favours the prepared; she has no favourites and takes no sides.
Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty : Tacitus

henry
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by henry » Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:13 am

Just_a_fan wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:44 am
You need to go to the right (wrong) areas to see the older cars. Go to the sink estates and you'll see plenty of cars that are 10-15 years old because that's what people living there can afford.
As I said in an earlier post my home town is typical of an area where the majority of cars are old.

You are right that it is a question of affordability. You are very wrong to characterise places where people have less disposable income as “wrong” or “sink”.
Fortune favours the prepared; she has no favourites and takes no sides.
Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty : Tacitus

Big Mangalhit
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Big Mangalhit » Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:48 am

henry wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:07 am


Anecdotally I would suggest that many cars do not get scrapped when they are beyond economic repair, they get scrapped because people want something newer/better and the market for old cars is finite.
Exactly but I think that often owners with availably space (big houses, countryside etc.) keep their old cars for a rainy day or because of emotional attachment or to save the money of having to scrap and that can augment the average in quite a bit if they are still being counted as not scrapped. Don't know the rules in the UK but this is quite common in countries you have to pay to scrap (some are financed by the government to reduce the number of old cars).

I still think it would be a much greener approach if we used our things as much as we could out of them. Everybody talks about the efficiency of new machinery but the CO2 and energy tax of producing a new machine (and disposal of old) when your old, albeit less efficient, is still running will probably never offset for most cases. Or maybe I think this way cause I'm still in love with my 19 years old Civic <3