Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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izzy
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by izzy » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:57 pm

Just_a_fan wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:16 pm
izzy wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:59 am
According to https://smarterbusiness.co.uk/uk-renewa ... tage-2018/ the UK is on 37.4% atm

and one of the best things about an EV car is that you can charge it at night or from your own solar panel or wind turbine so it's not using any extra fossil fuel at all
Live data suggests otherwise: http://gridwatch.co.uk/ . Was at 19.7% when I made my earlier post, now at 21.79%. It's a sunny day in the UK, generally, so the solar panels are doing well at the moment, but are at basically the same level as nuclear (13-14% of generation). That's the difference between installed capacity (I'm guessing that's the 37.4% you mentioned) and actual generation. And bear in mind that almost all of that generated electricity is going to the non-transport sectors. If you want to make the UK totally regen-resourced, then you need to be able to replace all of the current generation plus provide a massive amount more for transport. And upgrade the grid.

You can charge your car from your own solar panels - if you park at home during the day or have a very large battery stack in your garage to store the energy. Would you get enough in winter to be totally off-grid for recharging the car?

I'd be amazed if a domestic wind turbine would get anywhere near to charging a car for most people in an urban environment, unless it's again going via a large battery stack and you don't need to fully recharge the car every day.

Most people are going to be using grid-sourced energy at some point to charge cars, especially when using charging spaces away from home e.g. municipal car parks.

I'd love to think that the UK could be 100% renewable for all of our needs - not least as it would give total energy security - but it's a pipe dream, sadly.
oh what a great site. Yes most of it from gas, still, it's progress. Urban is a problem from more or less every point of view, there are too many people basically aren't there, though in principle urban journeys should be nice and short and not need a huge amount of charging.

But we have to see it as progress and relative and not get bogged down being discouraged by not achieving the absolute. If you're looking for a car an EV is getting more an more of an option now, next year there are lots of new ones coming, and a lot of people can have a solar panel or a wind turbine or both, and most days you won't be charging from nothing to full charge it'll be more like 30% to 80%

Plus they are incredible to drive

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:45 pm

Just_a_fan wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:16 pm
izzy wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:59 am
According to https://smarterbusiness.co.uk/uk-renewa ... tage-2018/ the UK is on 37.4% atm

and one of the best things about an EV car is that you can charge it at night or from your own solar panel or wind turbine so it's not using any extra fossil fuel at all
Live data suggests otherwise: http://gridwatch.co.uk/ . Was at 19.7% when I made my earlier post, now at 21.79%. It's a sunny day in the UK, generally, so the solar panels are doing well at the moment, but are at basically the same level as nuclear (13-14% of generation). That's the difference between installed capacity (I'm guessing that's the 37.4% you mentioned) and actual generation. And bear in mind that almost all of that generated electricity is going to the non-transport sectors. If you want to make the UK totally regen-resourced, then you need to be able to replace all of the current generation plus provide a massive amount more for transport. And upgrade the grid.

You can charge your car from your own solar panels - if you park at home during the day or have a very large battery stack in your garage to store the energy. Would you get enough in winter to be totally off-grid for recharging the car?

I'd be amazed if a domestic wind turbine would get anywhere near to charging a car for most people in an urban environment, unless it's again going via a large battery stack and you don't need to fully recharge the car every day.

Most people are going to be using grid-sourced energy at some point to charge cars, especially when using charging spaces away from home e.g. municipal car parks.

I'd love to think that the UK could be 100% renewable for all of our needs - not least as it would give total energy security - but it's a pipe dream, sadly.
As Izzy said, few people, if any, need to fully charge his battery daily. How many people do you know and what percentage of them need more than 70-80km a day? I know none who need 250km daily...


About the switch to renewables, I find your opinion a bit unrealistic sincerely. You´re analysing as if the switch will be done 100% in next month. That would be a problem, sure, but that´s not real. The switch is going to take probably decades, but we´re doing it for at least one decade now, and the progress continue, most countries continue increasing their renewable percentage.

Also, using grid energy does not mean it´s polluting energy. Well it is, but a percentage (wich will vary depending on the country) is already renewable energy, so even today EVs are polluting a lot less than ICE, and the difference will be increasing constantly until we reach 100% renewable at some point.


This is not aimed to you Just A Fan, but it drive me nuts when I see people comparing EVs vs ICE from a polluting point of view. First because of what I stated in a previous message, ICE does not produce only CO2, but a lot of very harmfull substances. Second because the technology has the potential to be 100% clean at some point, something ICEs can´t even dream with, so to me it´s pretty obvious what technology should we invest in. Discussing about what´s better for the environement IMHO is completely absurd even if we think today they pollute similar, but that´s not true so... how can anyone have some doubt at the respect? :?:

I also love the noise of a sporty ICE, but that´s just one point in favour of ICEs, while there are a lot in favour of EVs, emissions, easy of use, lack of maintenance, lifespan, no vibrations or noise at all, no need to warm up...

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by santos » Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:59 pm

Andres125sx wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:45 pm

As Izzy said, few people, if any, need to fully charge his battery daily. How many people do you know and what percentage of them need more than 70-80km a day? I know none who need 250km daily...
I know people that can easly make 100.000km's a year. Some, althought not every day, but with some regularity, can do 250km or even more. I think that a EV car should be able to do at least 400km. Not because you need it every day, but for praticality, and for feel safe.

izzy
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by izzy » Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:31 pm

santos wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:59 pm
Andres125sx wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:45 pm

As Izzy said, few people, if any, need to fully charge his battery daily. How many people do you know and what percentage of them need more than 70-80km a day? I know none who need 250km daily...
I know people that can easly make 100.000km's a year. Some, althought not every day, but with some regularity, can do 250km or even more. I think that a EV car should be able to do at least 400km. Not because you need it every day, but for praticality, and for feel safe.
there are no cars that suit everybody, it's like saying every car should do 0-60 in 5s or something, or every car should be easy to park or every car should be quiet on the motorway or be able to carry bikes.

what they're finding so far is that most people overestimate the range they need. not everybody, but luckily we don't want everybody to buy an EV, just yet

Just_a_fan
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Just_a_fan » Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:33 pm

Andres125sx wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:45 pm

As Izzy said, few people, if any, need to fully charge his battery daily. How many people do you know and what percentage of them need more than 70-80km a day? I know none who need 250km daily...
I do more than that in a typical day, although I accept I'm not typical. Lots of people will commute that sort of distance each way. So they need capacity or charging facilities at work. Lots of people don't need a car at all, or at least only infrequently. They use public transport.
About the switch to renewables, I find your opinion a bit unrealistic sincerely. You´re analysing as if the switch will be done 100% in next month. That would be a problem, sure, but that´s not real. The switch is going to take probably decades, but we´re doing it for at least one decade now, and the progress continue, most countries continue increasing their renewable percentage.
Sure it'll take decades, but it requires investment. Where is that going to come from? Government? Then it's from tax increases. Business? Then it's paid for by price increases. Either way, a LOT of money is required to do it.
Also, using grid energy does not mean it´s polluting energy. Well it is, but a percentage (wich will vary depending on the country) is already renewable energy, so even today EVs are polluting a lot less than ICE, and the difference will be increasing constantly until we reach 100% renewable at some point.
A point you may have missed is that even if the grid is 100% renewable, it's still needs massively increased generation capacity. Almost none of the energy currently produced is used in cars. To make the current grid fully renewable is one thing, to make enough from renewables to power all of the transport needs is several times larger than the grid's requirements.
This is not aimed to you Just A Fan, but it drive me nuts when I see people comparing EVs vs ICE from a polluting point of view.
It's fair to point out that EVs are not pollution free. Some people think they are and that they have a clean conscience because of it. But the reality is that at the moment they are not pollution free, not by a long way.
First because of what I stated in a previous message, ICE does not produce only CO2, but a lot of very harmfull substances. Second because the technology has the potential to be 100% clean at some point, something ICEs can´t even dream with, so to me it´s pretty obvious what technology should we invest in. Discussing about what´s better for the environement IMHO is completely absurd even if we think today they pollute similar, but that´s not true so... how can anyone have some doubt at the respect? :?:
As said, EVs are not pollution free. No, they don't have the potential to be pollution free. Even if you run them on solely e.g. wind generated energy, you still have PMs generated by tyres etc. It's all pollution even though it doesn't come from an ICE. Sure, it's much less but it's still there.
I also love the noise of a sporty ICE, but that´s just one point in favour of ICEs, while there are a lot in favour of EVs, emissions, easy of use, lack of maintenance, lifespan, no vibrations or noise at all, no need to warm up...
They are no more easy to use than an ICE-powered car, I'd say.
They require maintenance and they have similar lifespans to current cars to be fair.
They do make noise although they are quieter in general than ICEs - indeed that's a potential issue right there: they can be too quiet in an urban environment and people have already had issues because they didn't the car coming along!
They do have warming/cooling issues. Batteries are temperature sensitive - cold temperatures can really impact on usable storage, for example.

Lastly, I'm a fan of EVs, which you may not realise from my posts. I'm just realistic about them.
Turbo says "Dumpster sounds so much more classy. It's the diamond of the cesspools." oh, and "The Dutch fans are drunk. Maybe"

roon
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by roon » Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:37 pm

JaF, you'd hear both an EV and a modern ICEV approaching in an urban environment because you'd hear the same thing from both: tire noise.

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by hollus » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:03 pm

Fear not for the lack of noise. The EU is already on it:
Fake noise will be added to new electric cars in the EU

By the way:
"Depending on the quality of the feedstock (natural gas, rich gases, naphtha, etc.), one ton of hydrogen produced will also produce 9 to 12 tons of CO2."
Seems to be an scenario optimized for costs, which, I suspect, includes burning fuels for the energy. Assuming that any energy inputs could be clean, a combined reaction series looks like this (from the same source):
CH4 + H2O = CO + 3H2 delta H = + 206 kJ/mol
CO + H2O = CO2 + H2delta H = - 41 kJ/mol
So 1 methane ---> 1 CO2 exactly like in combustion. Other hydrocarbons would yield similar results, as no external carbon atoms are involved, you start with your hydrocarbon and add water and energy.

And as mentioned before, via hydrolysis no CO2 is created (but not practical in a massive scale yet).
It is not white, it is not black, it is probably gray.

roon
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by roon » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:20 pm

Good job, EU. "We have decided that our cities should never be permitted to become quiet again." Horses too are quiet at a standstill. Humanity survived.

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Big Tea » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:39 pm

santos wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:59 pm
Andres125sx wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:45 pm

As Izzy said, few people, if any, need to fully charge his battery daily. How many people do you know and what percentage of them need more than 70-80km a day? I know none who need 250km daily...
I know people that can easly make 100.000km's a year. Some, althought not every day, but with some regularity, can do 250km or even more. I think that a EV car should be able to do at least 400km. Not because you need it every day, but for praticality, and for feel safe.
This lack of range is my worry, but when you think of those people doing the mileage, how many miles do they do between fill-up's?
This seems to be where the bottle neck is at the moment. If you could be sure of getting a 200 mile charge in 20 min, I think it would go away. Remember, a 200 mile charge is a 200 mile charge, even if you are in slow or stop-start traffic. (well, in comparison)
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:47 pm

Agree roon, that link Hollus posted is frustrating... Any modern petrol engine at low speed makes almost no noise at all. Bicycles makes no noise at all. Electric skates makes no noise at all. There will be some accident, but there will be some accident anycase, or we´ve been accident free with the old and noisy petrol engines? If someone is knock down because he didn´t hear a car, that´s because he didn´t look before invading the street. That will still happen even with artificial noise, as it has been happening with ICEs since their first days to today

We don´t need more noise, we only need to respect the most basic rule at any city, look at both sides before crossing a street. Is this that difficult to deliberately increase the noise at the cities :wtf:

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:55 pm

santos wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:59 pm
Andres125sx wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:45 pm

As Izzy said, few people, if any, need to fully charge his battery daily. How many people do you know and what percentage of them need more than 70-80km a day? I know none who need 250km daily...
I know people that can easly make 100.000km's a year. Some, althought not every day, but with some regularity, can do 250km or even more. I think that a EV car should be able to do at least 400km. Not because you need it every day, but for praticality, and for feel safe.
I know, but you didn´t answer the question, what percentage represent those compared with the people you know? I´m sure it will be small. As izzy said, no car will suit 100% of people, but EVs will suite probably more than 80% of people even with their limited range. But people get afraid easily.

As easy as getting used to charge more frequently. Instead of going to the petrol station once a week, charge it (at home what is a lot more convenient) daily. What´s the problem?

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:09 pm

Just_a_fan wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:33 pm


[...]
So now we´re going to worry about the pollution of tire wear? Wow your standard is quite high Just A Fan :P

As Voltaire said, perfect is the enemy of good. EVs are far from perfect, but they´re so much better to ICEs that pointing to tire wear when now we´re using cars wich pollute so much that none worry about tire wear is not reasonable if you ask me

The debate is the motor/engine wich is by far the most polluting aspect of cars, if you know some way to reduce pollution caused by tire wear just tell us, it will be great to improve that aspect too, but worrying about tire wear when current cars pollute so much, IMHO is losing the target

About the investment, sorry but wrong question. It´s not where is this going to come from, but where is this coming from. Most countries are investing in renewables and increasing their percentage in their electricity production for many years now, so in the future it will come from the same place it´s been coming from these years, the same place as any investment of any goverment, our wallets. Nothing is free, if you want something, you must be prepared to assume the cost. Global warming and our health (specially those living into cities) are worth it I´d say.

Also, if all cars were EV, we´d save a lot of millions on health services thanks to respiratory diseases being reduced. Even allergies will improve as pollution increase the efect of allergens dramatically, so it´s not a waste, it´s an investment wich in the long term will be worth unquestionably

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Tommy Cookers » Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:10 pm

Andres125sx wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:09 pm
.....Also, if all cars were EV, we´d save a lot of millions on health services thanks to respiratory diseases being reduced. Even allergies will improve as pollution increase the efect of allergens dramatically, so it´s not a waste, it´s an investment wich in the long term will be worth unquestionably
the usual rubbish !

car air pollution has fallen to a level where it isn't significant to health
cars produce a small fraction of the present tiny level of Pms - 'green' heating produces the big fraction
tiny level historically - and tiny level compared to many less 'developed' countries

there's just one study (using 30 year old data) - claiming to have shown that people had their lives shortened by 0.1%
if your preferred football team has red shirts there will be statistics showing that shortens your life by more than 0.1%
but WHO officials are weak-minded indecisive cowards - and anyway intend never to surrender their power over us
now others are using the bogus claims of that study as pseudo-evidence to feed into policy models
its not science - it's politics manifested as scientific fraud whose only excuse is that it's motivated by muddled sincerity

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Tommy Cookers » Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:38 pm

santos wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:52 am
Just_a_fan wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:07 am
The UK currently generates about 20% of its electricity demand from renewable sources.
That's pretty low for a country like UK. And you can do much more than that. More of 50% of the energy consumed in Portugal its from renewable sources.
don't you mean that more than 50% of the electrical energy consumed in Portugal is from renewable sources ?

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by roon » Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:58 pm

Here in the US, 100% of our sunlight comes from renewable sources, well, non-renewable I guess depending on your frame of reference, and 100% of our elbow grease is renewable if you factor in good night's rest. Many of our restaurants have 100% renewable beverages. We use 100% of the energy we consume and recycle other people's ideas so frequently that innovation has become our main area of economic development.