Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Brake Horse Power
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Brake Horse Power » Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:55 pm

I read the report, some conclusions

- Electric car on renewable energy is cleaner than a diesel car
- We should install more renewable energy
- VW produces batteries for some 137kg per kWh which I expected to be lower by now.
- In Holland we calculate with a 3,232kg CO2 per liter diesel W2W emission. If I reverse engineer this calculation than the VW diesel car in the calculation has a fuel consumption of 27.8km per liter. I didn't know a VW golf diesel could do that (ha ha)

I honestly don't know what they want to achieve with this report. Even tough it is just bits from the original report. If they just want to produce diesel cars by making this BS (fuel consumption) comparison than just do it. Stop innovating and as you were.

Would be good tough to see the information of a hydrogen car on green hydrogen in the comparison. I would say a total of 8 tons after 200.000 km

hollus
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by hollus » Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:55 pm

I am a bit lost, why is oxygen important? I see some if you mentioning oxygen... but what is the context? Do we need more? Less (a bit?). And why is it suddenly in the discussion? Is it not stable world wide?

Anyways, regarding EVs and the grid... it is clear that we are not ready for massive EVs here and now, but it is a huge catch 22, isn’t it? EVs need a better power infrastructure, which needs the massive batteries of the EVs allowing stability and allowing for more renewables, which would make EVs greener, which would make the grid more EV friendly, which would allow for more EVs which in turn would enable more renewables...
As the title says... when?
It is not white, it is not black, it is probably gray.

Brake Horse Power
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Brake Horse Power » Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:07 pm

Now! Install renewable power. Produce (hydrogen) Electric cars. All technical ingredients are ready. And it is already happening..

roon
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by roon » Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:24 pm

hollus wrote:
Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:55 pm
it is clear that we are not ready for massive EVs here and now,
Irrelevant. It will take decades to make all cars on the road electric even if global automotive production is immediately converted to EVs. The bottleneck is production, not grid preparation.

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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by hollus » Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:16 pm

What is bottlenecking that production of EVs, roon? Are we hitting some technical limitation? Other than price and market demand, I mean. Probably battery production, but that would ramp up very quickly if demand were there, would it not?
It is not white, it is not black, it is probably gray.

henry
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by henry » Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:31 pm

I wonder if battery production will follow the memory chip model with cyclic availability as technology innovations, fiscal interventions and market variability make production volume planning difficult given that battery production facilities are capital intensive?
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roon
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by roon » Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:48 pm

hollus wrote:
Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:16 pm
What is bottlenecking that production of EVs, roon? Are we hitting some technical limitation? Other than price and market demand, I mean. Probably battery production, but that would ramp up very quickly if demand were there, would it not?
Many variables common across industries. Big capital costs to retool factories. Battery production limited. Corporate direction and vision.

Hard to measure demand. Corporate/capital inertia is what matters. Point is, swift conversion of industry is more challenging/unlikely compared to grid upgrades that only need to happen on the timescale of decades, soonest case scenario.

z.topoln
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by z.topoln » Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:54 pm

I think that to certain people they are already viable.

Im getting hyundai kona, with sole purpose of doing 100km every work day, with doing 350 km round trip every second weekend (with possibility to charge in mid of it) and with doing short trips to town, 100km max at once.

It will be a second car in family, first one being mercedes cls.

I think that it is cheaper for me to run ev than petrol, diesel isnt an option for me. Kona has cca 400km of range, so more than enough for all i need.

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roon
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by roon » Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:45 am


Greg Locock
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Greg Locock » Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:51 am

There's no specific problem with battery supply, for example Panasonic are selling them to all parties, not just Tesla. The reason the big boys aren't pushing BEVs yet is that the battery cost is still so high the resulting cost of the car is more than people will pay. There are several models coming out next year, if they sell profitably then the flood gates will open.

AFAIK all the big OEMS have EV platforms available, they are just waiting for the battery cost curve to drop to an appropriate level. 2 years before that they'll start working on top hats for production. What has been happening is that the internal electronic fit-out (the useless touch screens etc) has been changing at a great pace, and they want leave finalising the interior, especially, to the last possible moment.

For the time being China's BEV manufacturers, who are, in total, the biggest manufacturers of EVs, are busy satisfying domestic demand, when they decide to start exporting it'll be the solar panel malarkey all over again.

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Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:38 am

roon wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 1:45 am
https://youtu.be/W0DHhiwvatQ
Wow didn´t know about that. I had always assumed electric planes would take a lot more than Electric cars. Ok that´s pretty limited with 1000km range, but anycase it´s unexpected.

Very interesting wing tip motors with yaw vectoring control

Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:50 am

hollus wrote:
Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:55 pm
I am a bit lost, why is oxygen important? I see some if you mentioning oxygen... but what is the context? Do we need more? Less (a bit?). And why is it suddenly in the discussion? Is it not stable world wide?

Anyways, regarding EVs and the grid... it is clear that we are not ready for massive EVs here and now, but it is a huge catch 22, isn’t it? EVs need a better power infrastructure, which needs the massive batteries of the EVs allowing stability and allowing for more renewables, which would make EVs greener, which would make the grid more EV friendly, which would allow for more EVs which in turn would enable more renewables...
As the title says... when?
First define viable :mrgreen:

From an economical point of view, it will take some years yet, battery prices need to go down

From an environemental point of view, they´re viable today. If that flawed analysis state EVs pollute a 15% less, then reality must be overal they must pollute (being conservative) around a 20% less. Countries are struggling to meet their emissions reductions in this percentage even when they´ve had many many years to prepare, but we can reduce our particular emissions in that percentage from one day to the next just switching to EVs.

My plan is purchasing an EVs and installing a good renewable installation at home, with PV and some small wind turbine, so my emission reduction will be dramatically higher to any of these numbers. And I´ll stop paying electric companies at least in a good percentage. Even if I still will need grid energy average price will be lowered, footprint also lowered, and also the installation wil pay off sooner.

But again, it´s batteries wich prevent home instalations to be really profitable, I won´t install any, I will just sell the energy I don´t use and buy when I need more than I produce.

Tommy Cookers
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Tommy Cookers » Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:15 pm

Andres125sx wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:38 am
Very interesting wing tip motors with yaw vectoring control
this is a tailwheel plane
so its mechanical (ie when it's on the ground) directional stability is negative - it always tries to swerve off the runway
modern pilots can't deal with tailwheel aircraft - and even when pilots did they wrecked c 100000 planes
and we don't make 3 runway airfields these days
so this directional control independent of airspeed and wheel contact seems essential to avoid limiting the market
presumably there's an element of reverse thrust involved - to separate yaw moment from thrust

in a crosswind when the wheels aren't touching the ground it's flown like any other plane
but unlike any other tailwheel plane you don't need to touch down pointing exactly the way the runway points

they went tailwheel to site its main propeller to work on boundary layer
and tailwheel is structurally better
the operating economics depend on the untaxed position of fossil fuel for generation vs the taxed position of avgas

strad
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by strad » Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:59 pm

Y'all should be happy Harley has come out with an electric Hog.
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Big Tea » Tue Jul 16, 2019 7:06 pm

strad wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:59 pm
Y'all should be happy Harley has come out with an electric Hog.
I tried one last year, and TBH, its not bad. And I do not like HD
One test is worth a thousand expert opinions