Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

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izzy
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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:16 pm

djones wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:44 pm
I do no think they need to change anything in terms of concept or develop one area more than the rest.

They simply need to do exactly what they have done this year. They smashed the WDC and WCC so the recipe works just fine.

Chances are all of the other teams know they cannot beat Mercedes until the 2021 rule changes, so I suspect next year will be even easier for them as others look ahead and treat next year as somewhat of a throwaway.

The only team that looked close to worrying them this year was Ferrari.... but after clarifications and extra sensors, they will most likely take the same 30+ second hammering at nearly all the races next year as they have in the last few races when they lost the magic engine.
Ferrari and Red Bull and Honda all spent the entire year catching up, after starting without what they needed in their basic designs - front downforce and power. Now they've got a fresh start with their new cars and engines, i think this means it'll be close, especially if their drivers are growing up and having less contact. The engine Technical Directives will have a levelling effect too

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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:41 pm

OO7 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 6:16 pm
I doubt there'll be much suspension experimentation on the 2020 car, as I think the 2021 car will be too far removed in concept, with larger wheels, low profile tyres and non hydraulic suspension. I think there may also be limitations or a complete prohibition of the heave damper in 2021, so given these drastic changes, I don't see how they could experiment via the 2020 chassis.
They already started experimenting this year, when they tried a Belleville washer heave spring.
https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/14626 ... -explained

They won't change everything, but anything they can change that won't negatively impact the 2020 car, will probably be changed. The more 2021 relevant experience they can gain the better.

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SiLo
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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Fri Dec 06, 2019 4:59 pm

Weakness in the first part of the season? I'm sure they were quaking in their boots after 5 consecutive 1-2 victories.

I think the biggest jump we will see will be the engine this year. I've read multiple reports of a big jump from that department. I'd guess they may stick with a slightly more draggy but high downforce setup if they do get that bump.
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Wouter
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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:25 pm

SiLo wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 4:59 pm
I think the biggest jump we will see will be the engine this year.
I've read multiple reports of a big jump from that department.
I have only read one Italian report. Could you give me other (mutiple) reports? Thanks in advance.

Just_a_fan
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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Fri Dec 06, 2019 5:37 pm

SiLo wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 4:59 pm
Weakness in the first part of the season? I'm sure they were quaking in their boots after 5 consecutive 1-2 victories.
To be fair, Ferrari should have won Bahrain - Leclerc was cruising before he had mechanical issues. Baku was made easier for Mercedes by Leclerc's qualifying mistake - he'd been the quickest all weekend and most people expected him to win from pole.

The first 5 races look on the record as being a straight 5-easy but the reality is that Mercedes lucked in to one if not two wins.

Of course, part of being a title winning team is to be pressuring the opposition and being in place to take advantage when it's offered e.g. Hamilton in Bahrain.
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Sierra117
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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:04 pm

As far as the aero is concerned there really won't be any radical new changes. It'll be an evolution of this. Mostly efficiency improvements whilst retaining as much downforce as they can in the process. The real goal is 2021 and from those in the team I've spoken to have made it pretty clear that even now it's about 2021. As dans79 said, it'll be about working on things relevant to the 2021 spec. Otherwise on the inside of course, I expect to see some really interesting things. Well, hard to literally see since they'll be hidden under much of the bodywork but nonetheless.
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ME4ME
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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:55 pm

I think the trick to win both 2020 and 2021 is to get ahead early next season. Ferrari and Red Bull Honda won't be foolish enough to make an extra effort to overhaul a deficit in the second half of the season, because they'll be hurting in the long term.

A more powerfull qualifying mode and a good early understanding of the tyres will ensure early success. No new car needed, just some small updates. Minimal work on the 2020 car will ensure maximal work on the 2021 car and thereby a long term advantage.

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nevill3
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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:15 pm

They have already decided which races to target for next year, no team can win at every track unless they are far superior to the others. What I saw this year was a decision last winter to go a little marginal on the cooling and add more downforce at the cost of higher drag. Add to this the FIA continual attempts to outlaw any Mercedes/Rebull suspension design that aids their aero has meant that this years car had more "weaknesses" than any other Mercedes of recent years. Coupled with a stronger Honda engine in the RedBull chassis and a resurgent Ferrari, Mercedes have had a bigger challenge this year. I believe next year will see an evolution of this years car with the minor flaws mitigated and a few new tweaks aimed at giving them a decent head start at the beginning of the season. Year on year they have managed to overcome their weaknesses of previous years (Tyre management etc.) and so end up with a stronger package each year

Their budget is rumoured to allow them to run two design teams at once so the emphasis of getting ahead so they can switch development to the following years car is not as important as at some of the other teams.
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LM10
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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:47 pm

nevill3 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:15 pm
They have already decided which races to target for next year, no team can win at every track unless they are far superior to the others. What I saw this year was a decision last winter to go a little marginal on the cooling and add more downforce at the cost of higher drag. Add to this the FIA continual attempts to outlaw any Mercedes/Rebull suspension design that aids their aero has meant that this years car had more "weaknesses" than any other Mercedes of recent years. Coupled with a stronger Honda engine in the RedBull chassis and a resurgent Ferrari, Mercedes have had a bigger challenge this year. I believe next year will see an evolution of this years car with the minor flaws mitigated and a few new tweaks aimed at giving them a decent head start at the beginning of the season. Year on year they have managed to overcome their weaknesses of previous years (Tyre management etc.) and so end up with a stronger package each year

Their budget is rumoured to allow them to run two design teams at once so the emphasis of getting ahead so they can switch development to the following years car is not as important as at some of the other teams.
I strongly disagree with these parts. Mercedes destroyed everyone in the first half of the season - in both qualifying and race. Their car was the only one treating the tyres exceptionally well. Their only weakness was the straight line speed, but not sure if you can call it a weakness, if it comes with more important and winning factors like downforce.

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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:18 am

Of championship winning Mercs the 2017 W08 was no doubt the most flawed, there's a reason that car was known as "the diva".

The W10 only got "kinda caught" after it didn't matter anymore, and of course it was still the better overall car after "caught".

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Phil
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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:24 am

I honestly dont think that Ferraris testing performance at testing in Barcelona 2019 was a fluke. I also dont believe Toto & Co. were bluffing with their reaction to Ferraris strong pace there and that they were genuinely surprised about how good they started come Melbourne, that is not a representative track anyway. Ferrari made way too many mistakes and severly underperformed. Ferrari proved later in the season that their concept does work, but that mastering the tires is a large part of the game that made a huge difference at the beginning.

I am not discounting the possibility that both RedBull and Ferrari could start the year strongly and get a better start, especially considering there arent any big rule changes for next year.
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atanatizante
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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Sun Dec 08, 2019 1:48 pm

LM10 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:47 pm
nevill3 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:15 pm
They have already decided which races to target for next year, no team can win at every track unless they are far superior to the others. What I saw this year was a decision last winter to go a little marginal on the cooling and add more downforce at the cost of higher drag. Add to this the FIA continual attempts to outlaw any Mercedes/Rebull suspension design that aids their aero has meant that this years car had more "weaknesses" than any other Mercedes of recent years. Coupled with a stronger Honda engine in the RedBull chassis and a resurgent Ferrari, Mercedes have had a bigger challenge this year. I believe next year will see an evolution of this years car with the minor flaws mitigated and a few new tweaks aimed at giving them a decent head start at the beginning of the season. Year on year they have managed to overcome their weaknesses of previous years (Tyre management etc.) and so end up with a stronger package each year

Their budget is rumoured to allow them to run two design teams at once so the emphasis of getting ahead so they can switch development to the following years car is not as important as at some of the other teams.
I strongly disagree with these parts. Mercedes destroyed everyone in the first half of the season - in both qualifying and race. Their car was the only one treating the tyres exceptionally well. Their only weakness was the straight line speed, but not sure if you can call it a weakness, if it comes with more important and winning factors like downforce.
Their straight-line speed weakness was down to 3 factors: 1. a draggy/high DF concept car; 2. adopting a high downforce setup, in most cases, in order to get their optimum/fastest lap time in the race and 3. cooling limitations which hampered them to run their 3rd spec PU in higher modes both in qualy and the race. The latter was way more important from my point of view, for they were restricted to get fuel updates, the biggest gains in this area nowadays.

Not to mention that in order to have a better cooling they indirectly opened up the car which induced more drag...
So, I think it was only down to the poor/wrong cooling design that cascades all their problems this year!

Now in the prospect that Ferrari and RB will give them a stiff competition - something we`d welcome to - at the start of the 2020 season, the only way I could see them prevail is to focus on getting back their upper hand in pole/front row qualy . And that is to solve their cooling issue and have a less draggy car coz I don`t see any miracles from ICE/PU area due to law of diminishing returns. Only just back to running a normal 3rd spec PU with a little help of a new fuel formula...
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izzy
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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Sun Dec 08, 2019 2:12 pm

Phil wrote:
Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:24 am
I honestly dont think that Ferraris testing performance at testing in Barcelona 2019 was a fluke. I also dont believe Toto & Co. were bluffing with their reaction to Ferraris strong pace there and that they were genuinely surprised about how good they started come Melbourne, that is not a representative track anyway. Ferrari made way too many mistakes and severly underperformed. Ferrari proved later in the season that their concept does work, but that mastering the tires is a large part of the game that made a huge difference at the beginning.

I am not discounting the possibility that both RedBull and Ferrari could start the year strongly and get a better start, especially considering there arent any big rule changes for next year.
yes it's easy to forget how it looked at the start of the year, testing and Bahrain. It was all so sensitive to temperatures and corner types. Also i think the Ferrari was difficult to set up

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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:12 pm

izzy wrote:
Sun Dec 08, 2019 2:12 pm
yes it's easy to forget how it looked at the start of the year, testing and Bahrain. It was all so sensitive to temperatures and corner types. Also i think the Ferrari was difficult to set up
Agreed. I think Ferrari lucked into the correct set-up in testing and used their time to change that set-up while trying to understand how the changes affect the car. Mercedes on the other hand had to adapt to their true aero package and had to spend the entire testing trying to dial in a set-up. I think that is where their advantage was. Ferrari were quick after they got to grips with their car post summer break. It is hard to understand your car if you cannot use the same track to test what you learned from data analysis. Ferrari also had a massively complex hydraulic rear suspension design from what I have heard.

I doubt the new Merc will be radically different. They did rather okay in this year so there is no reason to go radical for next season.

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PlatinumZealot
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Re: Mercedes W11 Speculation Thread

Post Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:15 pm

I generally agree with the cooling concern mentioned here.
How could the mighty Mercedes team have gotten it so wrong? Toto claimed it was a calculation error. Yeah sure. How did that go unnoticed in all the dyno sessions and simulations. But anyway. Hope the mistake is not repeated.

I wonder if a sort of artificial mercury - a sort of liquid metal if you will - or even heat pipe technology - could be used to help the main cooling systems? Any one remember Ferraris radiator floor?
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