2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

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iotar__
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by iotar__ » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:46 am

F1NAC wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:59 pm
WaikeCU wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:34 pm
It's been heatwave hot in July and August, but temp is dropping ever since last week. We are expecting Autumn weather this weekend. So yeah, low temperatures for the time accompanied with the common rain showers. It could cause chaos this weekend. Wouldn't be surprised if a few big names are going to be caught out by it.
cries in Ferrari
Surely you mean RB ("car doesn't work")? Ferrari were more than fine in the rainy qualifying. True, it apparently helped Mercedes at one track where they were behind in normal conditions but it doesn't change the other side.

- Judging by the engine advantage Ferrari had according to Wolff at a low-medium-small straight Hungaroring (0,4 s) they should annihilate competition at Spa.

- Surprisingly - it's "no clear favourites" now from Mercedes. Either they'er getting ++0,4 s upgrades or it doesn't work like that. I agree with Wolff :D , it should be close.

LM10
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by LM10 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:06 am

Current forecast says that it’s gonna be a dry Sunday.

f1316
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by f1316 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:25 pm

My perception - may or may not be correct - was that Ferrari were actually very competitive on inters in Hungary, just not so much on wets (although not exactly struggling as much as RB).

Hopefully we'll have a chance to gauge again this weekend, but I seem to remember one of the drivers, I think Lewis, noting the same.

WaikeCU
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by WaikeCU » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:29 pm

f1316 wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:25 pm
My perception - may or may not be correct - was that Ferrari were actually very competitive on inters in Hungary, just not so much on wets (although not exactly struggling as much as RB).

Hopefully we'll have a chance to gauge again this weekend, but I seem to remember one of the drivers, I think Lewis, noting the same.
Yeah, I recalled Kimi was quick and wasn't far off on the time Lewis had, but then Lewis improved even more, because track conditions were improving and he was the last of the favourites to set a final time.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by MtthsMlw » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:10 pm

WaikeCU wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:29 pm
f1316 wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:25 pm
My perception - may or may not be correct - was that Ferrari were actually very competitive on inters in Hungary, just not so much on wets (although not exactly struggling as much as RB).

Hopefully we'll have a chance to gauge again this weekend, but I seem to remember one of the drivers, I think Lewis, noting the same.
Yeah, I recalled Kimi was quick and wasn't far off on the time Lewis had, but then Lewis improved even more, because track conditions were improving and he was the last of the favourites to set a final time.
He said the car was very good and he felt he could get Pole but his last run was compromised by traffic. As a Ferrari Fan I wouldn't worry about a wet Qualifying :)

NL_Fer
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by NL_Fer » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:25 pm

Ferrari has the power, but Merc aero is king on high speed tracks like Spa.

Qually looks freezing cold at 14c and rain.

MtthsMlw
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by MtthsMlw » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:29 pm

NL_Fer wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:25 pm
Ferrari has the power, but Merc aero is king on high speed tracks like Spa.

Qually looks freezing cold at 14c and rain.
Not anymore I would say. Ferrari really catched up in that area this season.

Phil
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by Phil » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:36 pm

You know, even if Hamilton/a Mercedes gets pole... it's a long way up Eau Rouge and beyond. It was a miracle (and took some cunning driving by Hamilton) to not lose 1st place last year at the start and safety car restart - if he gets pole (at this point, big if and anyones guess), it'll be extremely difficult to keep the Ferraris behind.

Best case scenario for Merc would be a front-row lockout with a few RedBulls seperating them to the Ferraris. With a rainy qualifying, anything can happen.
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GPR-A duplicate2
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by GPR-A duplicate2 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:52 pm

Phil wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:36 pm
You know, even if Hamilton/a Mercedes gets pole... it's a long way up Eau Rouge and beyond. It was a miracle (and took some cunning driving by Hamilton) to not lose 1st place last year at the start and safety car restart - if he gets pole (at this point, big if and anyones guess), it'll be extremely difficult to keep the Ferraris behind.

Best case scenario for Merc would be a front-row lockout with a few RedBulls seperating them to the Ferraris. With a rainy qualifying, anything can happen.
It is my understanding that, Ferrari's speed advantage is more apparent in qualifying and not so much in races. Even if a Ferrari is two tenth up in qualifying on the kemmel straight, it would translate into less than a tenth with 100kg fuel and with less aggressive race mode. It would still be possible for a Mercedes to take inside line through kemmel and hold on to the position against a Ferrari. If through a miracle Mercedes manages front row lockout, then it would be impossible to beat them.

Just to highlight, the softest compound for this race is SuperSoft and unlike in some of the previous races, no skip in a step of compound. So theoretically, it should be easy for Mercedes to setup and work the tyres harder.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by godlameroso » Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:02 pm

MtthsMlw wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:29 pm
NL_Fer wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:25 pm
Ferrari has the power, but Merc aero is king on high speed tracks like Spa.

Qually looks freezing cold at 14c and rain.
Not anymore I would say. Ferrari really catched up in that area this season.
It's very close, I still think Mercedes has the better power unit, the Ferrari is more aerodynamically efficient than the Mercedes though. What I mean is that it has a little less drag but also a little less total downforce, however the Ferrari can get it's downforce working at a lower speed than the Mercedes. Either car can win a race, and sometimes it swings in favor of one over the other, mostly it's just who makes the least amount of mistakes that wins.
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by GPR-A duplicate2 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:12 pm

godlameroso wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:02 pm
MtthsMlw wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:29 pm
NL_Fer wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:25 pm
Ferrari has the power, but Merc aero is king on high speed tracks like Spa.

Qually looks freezing cold at 14c and rain.
Not anymore I would say. Ferrari really catched up in that area this season.
It's very close, I still think Mercedes has the better power unit, the Ferrari is more aerodynamically efficient than the Mercedes though. What I mean is that it has a little less drag but also a little less total downforce, however the Ferrari can get it's downforce working at a lower speed than the Mercedes. Either car can win a race, and sometimes it swings in favor of one over the other, mostly it's just who makes the least amount of mistakes that wins.
If you look at carefully, Mercedes was faster through S3 in Hockeinheim, which was a slow sector and faster through S2 in Budapest, which was a combination of fast and slow corners and Ferrari seemed faster on straights. So, it seems to me like Mercedes is running with higher downforce compared to Ferrari.

Spa has a challenging S2, which requires good amount of downforce to make best out of it. It would be interesting battle.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by godlameroso » Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:18 pm

GPR-A wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:12 pm
godlameroso wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:02 pm
MtthsMlw wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:29 pm


Not anymore I would say. Ferrari really catched up in that area this season.
It's very close, I still think Mercedes has the better power unit, the Ferrari is more aerodynamically efficient than the Mercedes though. What I mean is that it has a little less drag but also a little less total downforce, however the Ferrari can get it's downforce working at a lower speed than the Mercedes. Either car can win a race, and sometimes it swings in favor of one over the other, mostly it's just who makes the least amount of mistakes that wins.
If you look at carefully, Mercedes was faster through S3 in Hockeinheim, which was a slow sector and faster through S2 in Budapest, which was a combination of fast and slow corners and Ferrari seemed faster on straights. So, it seems to me like Mercedes is running with higher downforce compared to Ferrari.

Spa has a challenging S2, which requires good amount of downforce to make best out of it. It would be interesting battle.
Agreed, last year Ferrari was stronger in sector 2 but weaker in sectors 1 & 3, will be interesting to see if the tables turn this year.
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MtthsMlw
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by MtthsMlw » Wed Aug 22, 2018 4:35 pm


f1316
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by f1316 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:06 pm

MtthsMlw wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:10 pm
WaikeCU wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:29 pm
f1316 wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:25 pm
My perception - may or may not be correct - was that Ferrari were actually very competitive on inters in Hungary, just not so much on wets (although not exactly struggling as much as RB).

Hopefully we'll have a chance to gauge again this weekend, but I seem to remember one of the drivers, I think Lewis, noting the same.
Yeah, I recalled Kimi was quick and wasn't far off on the time Lewis had, but then Lewis improved even more, because track conditions were improving and he was the last of the favourites to set a final time.
He said the car was very good and he felt he could get Pole but his last run was compromised by traffic. As a Ferrari Fan I wouldn't worry about a wet Qualifying :)
But you guys are talking about Q3, all of which took place on full wets.

My point of reference is Q1 when both are on inters (Q2 was not representative with only Seb able to do a competitive inter time) - if you watch that session, when both cars were running inters in the same conditions, the Ferrari was predominantly setting faster times.

There may be other factors at work in Q1 - e.g. different fuel loads for different lengths of run - but in those conditions both teams would certainly have been trying to maximise their lap times for fear of being caught out if conditions improve/they’re unable to get another time in.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 24-26 August

Post by Just_a_fan » Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:14 pm

godlameroso wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:02 pm
What I mean is that it has a little less drag but also a little less total downforce, however the Ferrari can get it's downforce working at a lower speed than the Mercedes.
If you make low speed downforce then you make high speed downforce (unless you have a design that stalls the wings (intentionally or otherwise)) and vice versa. The cars don't have active aero so unless someone is cheating (or is lucky), the cars don't tend to suddently lose downforce generating ability as speed increases. Yes, the inherent flexibility of wings etc. means that it's non-linear (of course it's non-linear anyway as it's a square relationship but...) but all teams suffer/benefit from that.
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