2018 Russian Grand Prix - Sochi Autodrom, 28 - 30 September

[Juzh]

FP2

[dans79]

Are they trying to simulate a HyperSoft - Soft race strategy? A 2 stop looks like a more realistic option this weekend.

Given the track has such low degradation, I could see the teams trying to one stop. It will all come down to how well you can get and keep heat in the tires!

[Phil]

The great news for Ferrari is, even if they are awfully off the pace, given that both RedBulls are starting with penalties for introducing another engine, they are guaranteed to qualify at worst in the 2nd row - and as Bottas showed last year, it's enough to snatch the lead with a great start and a powerful tow.

[Big Tea]

Interesting, but meaningless comparing the mclaren times (difference)

[mkay]

That looks bad for Ferrari and Vettel

Not at all. Ferrari traditionally runs the engine de-tuned on Fridays, Mercedes not so much. The long runs paints things much closer, although if Hamilton pulls one of those magic laps there's no stopping him. When they turn it up tomorrow Ferrari will instantly gain 1.5 seconds.

The past few weekends show that this is not correct. Delta between Friday and ultimate pace on Saturday has been greater for Merc than Ferrari over the last 4-5 GPs. Not saying that this means Ferrari is legitimately 6 tenths down, but the notion that Ferrari is anymore detuned than Mercedes hasn't been true recently, though it was at the beginning of the season.

Ferrari clearly struggling set up wise, though... that was clear.

[djones]

Quotes posted from Vettel after FP2 show Ferrari have not only setup issues, but high tyre deg.

Mercedes look consistent in both long runs and ability to turn on a hot lap.

I think both Redbulls have engine penalties, so at worst Ferrari will be on the 2nd row and with that huge tow I would not rule out being in first by T2. In fact if they are on the 2nd row I might actually place a bet on that.

[Jolle]

That looks bad for Ferrari and Vettel

Not at all. Ferrari traditionally runs the engine de-tuned on Fridays, Mercedes not so much. The long runs paints things much closer, although if Hamilton pulls one of those magic laps there's no stopping him. When they turn it up tomorrow Ferrari will instantly gain 1.5 seconds.

The past few weekends show that this is not correct. Delta between Friday and ultimate pace on Saturday has been greater for Merc than Ferrari over the last 4-5 GPs. Not saying that this means Ferrari is legitimately 6 tenths down, but the notion that Ferrari is anymore detuned than Mercedes hasn't been true recently, though it was at the beginning of the season.

Ferrari clearly struggling set up wise, though... that was clear.

Luckily setup is sometimes you can improve, if the car was perfect balanced and a lot slower, that would be even more worrisome. I guess GIO is on the first flight to Maranelllo to work the sim.

[dans79]

I think both Redbulls have engine penalties, so at worst Ferrari will be on the 2nd row and with that huge tow I would not rule out being in first by T2. In fact if they are on the 2nd row I might actually place a bet on that.

If Merc locks out the front row, I think it will be hard to get a good tow. Unlike earlier in the year I don't think Merc has any problems sacrificing Bottas to help Lewis.

[Phil]

How so? Even if both Mercs drive side by side, the track is wide enough to get enough tow and pass. The Ferrari has already demonstrated that they have something in the mid-speed range where they can significantly boost performance. Bottas overtook 2 Ferraris last year to get into the lead by T2...

[Bill_Kar]

Do we have a picture concerning long runs?

[dans79]

How so? Even if both Mercs drive side by side, the track is wide enough to get enough tow and pass. The Ferrari has already demonstrated that they have something in the mid-speed range where they can significantly boost performance. Bottas overtook 2 Ferraris last year to get into the lead by T2...

All it would take is a slight lift, or an intentional sub optimal shift. Think Hamilton & Vettel at Spa last year, Vettel was to close and had to pull out of the tow to early to really benefit from it.

[MtthsMlw]

Source

[dans79]

Vettel on FP2

https://www.crash.net/f1/news/906326/1/ ... g-do-sochi

"Obviously we looked quite far away from the rest of the field, so [it's] not ideal. I think struggling a bit for one lap pace, but also in the long runs," Vettel said.

"I think we went through our tyres a bit harder and quicker than the rest, so we need to have a look. But also just looking at ourselves, it wasn't a good day in terms of feel for the car. I think there’s more that we need to go to."

[Phil]

All it would take is a slight lift, or an intentional sub optimal shift. Think Hamilton & Vettel at Spa last year, Vettel was to close and had to pull out of the tow to early to really benefit from it.

What worked at Spa, worked because the place where Hamilton lifted is the narrow section heading into/up Eau Rouge. This caused Seb to lift as well - or be too close, which then compromised his run down the Kemmel straight. This was also in 2017 when Mercedes arguably had an engine advantage (and they were running less wing than Ferrari). From what I can tell, this wouldn't be possible here, the track is just too wide.

Lifting early would compromise acceleration - something they are already lacking versus Ferrari. This would, yes, cause the Ferrari to get out off the tow, but assuming they can stay on full acceleration, they'd be quicker at accelerating anyway which would pretty much guarantee the pass is done.

I'm just assuming here that Ferrari still have that "edge" in acceleration somewhere above 200kmh for a short period, but enough to have a significant advantage. That, and a tow, will IMO make them hard to beat into T2. If they are already starting from pole (if), I think their acceleration advantage will give them that tiny bit to retain the lead vs Mercedes behind with tow.

So, even if Mercedes looks strong, I think Ferrari will have the lead after T2. If they can stay there and win the race, who knows. If their pace is that off and they are struggling with set-up and tire deg, then Mercedes might beat them on strategy/under- or overcut.

[Vasconia]

Vettel on FP2

https://www.crash.net/f1/news/906326/1/ ... g-do-sochi

"Obviously we looked quite far away from the rest of the field, so [it's] not ideal. I think struggling a bit for one lap pace, but also in the long runs," Vettel said.

"I think we went through our tyres a bit harder and quicker than the rest, so we need to have a look. But also just looking at ourselves, it wasn't a good day in terms of feel for the car. I think there’s more that we need to go to."

If they can change totally the set-up and find a lot of pace we may have a good race, if not, it doesn´t look at all. They are slower and they don´t manage the tyres very well. What the hell is goind on with Ferrari?