johnnycesup wrote: ↑05 Apr 2026, 16:10
bananapeel23 wrote: ↑05 Apr 2026, 14:31
Secondly, since these ICE gains are presumably the result of more complete fuel combustion, you end up with more exhaust gases.
The post mentions the compression ratio thing and that by itself increases the thermal efficiency of the Otto cycle even if there is no change in the combustion characteristics, so more power. So that's what I was thinking of, I could be wrong of course (and again the post could be made up)
Oh I'm certain it is. ADUO is still likely to bring a substantial power increase, but I'd be shocked if it ended up being as much as 8 tenths from ICE power alone, as well as 4 tenths from the MGU-K software. I could see increased deployment efficiency and better cooling efficiency bringing 2-3 tenths, but 8 tenths from the ICE seems wildly optimistic. If they get 2 ADUO upgrades I could see that being a bit more realistic.
My uneducated guess is that the ADUO package (software + ICE + cooling) will be worth anywhere from 4-6 tenths, with the aero package (including new floor and macarena mk. 2) bringing another 2-4 tenths. On the conservative side of that range they are breathing down the neck of the current Mercedes (but not after Mercedes have brought their own upgrades). On the optimistic side they are at parity +- 2 tenths.
So in the best case scenario they might catch up to, or just barely overtake Mercedes, while a more conservative scenario results in the gap perhaps being halved.
If Ferrari somehow manages to get 2 ADUO upgrades it will be an entirely different story. If they are 4% down on ICE power, they must have an insurmountable chassis/aero advantage to be as close as they are. If they get 2 ADUO upgrades and get the ICE power gap to +-1%, they would end up cruising to both championships off the back of their aero, while Haas could end up as a legitimate podium contender.