2018 McLaren F1 Team - Renault

[WaikeCU]

I did.

The numbers are not accurate at all.

The Stoffel's number for 0.195% is not accurate. Alonso out-qualified Vandoorne 16-3 with a median gap of 0.445%.The gap between them was significantly larger in the first half of the season (0.630% vs. 0.195%), while the tallies were similar (8-1 vs. 8-2).

He has pulled the number out of thin air after applying some really weird performance equalizers to his entire equation.

I personally came to a difference of 0.354%. I included every qualifying session they both drove, so Q1 and Q2. I compared Q1 times to Q1 times and Q2 times to Q2 times. If for instance Vandoorne got knocked out in Q1 and Alonso did not, I would not factor in Alonso's Q2 time. Which is fair, conditions can quickly vary between Q sessions and to omit as many variables as possible, only the times they set in roughly the same period should matter.

Note I counted for every such session including the ones where Vandoorne had a readable downforce handicap. If I omit those, it drops to 0.268%

Does it make sense to compare Q1 and Q2? Unless, there are some situations like a driver couldn't move into Q2 or Q3 because of some weird issues. But otherwise, drivers typically leave a tenth or two in Q1 and Q2, just to keep some cards close to their chest, away from their team mate. It's always the Q3 (or Q2 for cars that find it hard to get into Q3) that reveals the ultimate potential of the driver-car combo.

For teams like Merc or Ferrari or even Red Bull. It doesn't matter. Q1 and Q2 are just part of Quali and making sure they get through each stage cleanly. Times in Q3 is all that matters.

[turbof1]

I did.

The numbers are not accurate at all.

The Stoffel's number for 0.195% is not accurate. Alonso out-qualified Vandoorne 16-3 with a median gap of 0.445%.The gap between them was significantly larger in the first half of the season (0.630% vs. 0.195%), while the tallies were similar (8-1 vs. 8-2).

He has pulled the number out of thin air after applying some really weird performance equalizers to his entire equation.

I personally came to a difference of 0.354%. I included every qualifying session they both drove, so Q1 and Q2. I compared Q1 times to Q1 times and Q2 times to Q2 times. If for instance Vandoorne got knocked out in Q1 and Alonso did not, I would not factor in Alonso's Q2 time. Which is fair, conditions can quickly vary between Q sessions and to omit as many variables as possible, only the times they set in roughly the same period should matter.

Note I counted for every such session including the ones where Vandoorne had a readable downforce handicap. If I omit those, it drops to 0.268%

Does it make sense to compare Q1 and Q2? Unless, there are some situations like a driver couldn't move into Q2 or Q3 because of some weird issues. But otherwise, drivers typically leave a tenth or two in Q1 and Q2, just to keep some cards close to their chest, away from their team mate. It's always the Q3 (or Q2 for cars that find it hard to get into Q3) that reveals the ultimate potential of the driver-car combo.

I find it does make sense. McLaren clearly struggles to make it into Q2, so they have little reason to hold that tenth back. Even if you did make that assumption, you have to assume the same offset is made for both. Which I really don't think that is the case; mclaren is not a mercedes or ferrari who can afford to tune down the engine or take it a bit more easy in Q1 and possibly Q2. The reverse can also be said: if an inferior car does manage to get a Q3 spot, chances are they will only do one timed run where they play it save, knowing they normally will only get P10 unless a car crashes out, this to not make unnecessary risks for practically no gain.

Anyway, it's a moot point because only Alonso managed Q3 one or two times. Vandoorne has not, so you don't have comparative data.

If you are interested, I did a quick average on the highest Q session of each race they BOTH reached, which sits at 0.409%. If I again omit the DF compromised times, it drops back down to 0.281%.

The DF offset really show in the times btw. In those 2 races Vandoorne performed a full 1% worse than Alonso. That really bites in on the average.

EDIT: I have to stress Makecry put out the 2017 % difference, so not the 2018!

[Jackles-UK]

Exactly what Jenson did in 2016; confirm he won’t race the following year but kept an option open for the year after and remain heavily linked to the team as an ambassador/reserve driver. As it happens he decided against that in the end but if McLaren can turn things around I wouldn’t rule out Fernando coming back full time in 2020.

Curious to see what McLaren come up with now. They have said this week that they want experienced drivers to help them out of their funk, where are they going to go for that now? A do-or-die lunge for Kimi alongside Sainz/Vandoorne?

[bauc]

So Vandorne and Lando @Mclaren next year?

[RonDennis]

So Vandorne and Lando @Mclaren next year?

It will be Sainz and Norris. To be honest, it makes sense, why would you spend all the millions on Alonso, while you're already certain you won't do anything decent until 2020/21. Losing Alonso isn't a big loss to McLaren, but a big one to F1 as well. He's one of the legendary drivers and personally I don't care how many titles he has one.

Edit: so he will stay at McLaren, who he has a long term contract with. It will probably mean McLaren will enter Indycar next year, so at least we can enjoy him in a class where he (and McLaren) can actually win.

[M840TR]

I hope Mclaren have a competitive car in 2020 so he considers coming back as he said.

[RonDennis]

I hope Mclaren have a competitive car in 2020 so he considers coming back as he said.

I doubt it. If Key joins McLaren end 2019 it's more likely that they will put all the resources in the 2021 car. I'm sure they won't make the same mistake again.

[M840TR]

I hope Mclaren have a competitive car in 2020 so he considers coming back as he said.

I doubt it. If Key joins McLaren end 2019 it's more likely that they will put all the resources in the 2021 car. I'm sure they won't make the same mistake again.

I think he'll join at the end of this year. 2021 is too far to make any predictions yet. If they come good in 2019 they'll surely keep developing for the next season given regulations stay stable which means they might be competitive still. Hopefully they've learned from mistakes.

[M840TR]

ESPN reporting Sainz takes Alonso’s seat for next year.

[Ground Effect]

ESPN reporting Sainz takes Alonso’s seat for next year.

Apparently, they're claiming a 2 year deal. If Mclaren decide to drop Stoffel, it would be great to get Esteban Ocon, I think he's quality, and has more than enough experience to be regarded as a young driver.

[M840TR]

ESPN reporting Sainz takes Alonso’s seat for next year.

Apparently, they're claiming a 2 year deal. If Mclaren decide to drop Stoffel, it would be great to get Esteban Ocon, I think he's quality, and has more than enough experience to be regarded as a young driver.

Exactly what I was thinking. Two feisty young drivers can fill the gap Alonso's departure will leave.

[mclaren111]

Unless Norris is going to be "traded" for Key, I see no reason not to put him in the team and start preparing him for when the car is good again.

[M840TR]

Unless Norris is going to be "traded" for Key, I see no reason not to put him in the team and start preparing him for when the car is good again.

It's risky. He has no experience. I'd prefer Vandoorne over him for now.

[Jackles-UK]

Unless Norris is going to be "traded" for Key, I see no reason not to put him in the team and start preparing him for when the car is good again.

Whilst I love the idea of a young, exciting British driver at the helm of a McLaren, it’s whether a rookie driver with little/no development feedback experience will hinder their ability to get back to winning ways quickly. It’s less of a risk blooding drivers like this in good cars (Hamilton in 07, Vettel in 09 etc.) but when it’s a rebuilding process it’s a risk for both driver and team (Perez/Magnussen experienced this at McLaren themselves). Norris might be lucky though in that there is a distinct lack of experience available in the paddock now.

[mwillems]

ESPN reporting Sainz takes Alonso’s seat for next year.

Apparently, they're claiming a 2 year deal. If Mclaren decide to drop Stoffel, it would be great to get Esteban Ocon, I think he's quality, and has more than enough experience to be regarded as a young driver.

Exactly what I was thinking. Two feisty young drivers can fill the gap Alonso's departure will leave.

Would love Sainz and Ocon, failing that Sainz and Norris.

I think Ocon is going to be a very good driver and whilst I like Norris and want to see him in F1, we need the best line up we can get right now, no time for sentimentality.

As an aside, I would imagine that the budget for both of those drivers is going to be significantly lower than this years driver budget, never a bad thing for a cash strapped team.