This post was more long winded than I meant it to be... apologies
Greg Locock wrote: ↑
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:38 pm
I like the idea but I think most contributions will be Monday morning quarterbacking or fantasies.
Definitely! And to a degree, I think that's ok. What I'm more interested in is in empirical data and why certain decisions were made. I think it is really easy to say "[X team] messed up their strategy bad!" or "[Y team] got it right!" but being able to quantify that is the aim. Or... they chose the best option, or what they thought was the best option. If so, how did the team, in the moment, come to that decision?
For instance, 2019 Baku... Ferrari was criticized for leaving Leclerc out too long (pit on Lap 34/35 of 51). Ferrari's strategy seemed to be have #16 go long on Mediums, maybe play the team game and hold up the Mercs a bit for Vettel and then pit onto Softs to have a go. This is not an unfamiliar strategy that we saw multiple times in 2018 with Ferrari and Kimi.
2019 Baku Lap Chart + additional data
https://www.racefans.net/2019/04/28/201 ... and-tyres/
In hindsight, what we do know is that the Ferrari's tire life, especially in the first half of 2019, wasn't great. The hard tire didn't provide enough grip to create a delta where Ferrari felt they could make a significant gain up to the leaders. They'd probably end up 5th or 6th with that strategy. So, they stayed out long on Mediums, hope for a safety car (where there tends to be one frequently... "Ericsson hit us") and maybe Charles could attack with ~15 to go. The safety car at that time never came. Gasly went out and Ferrari ended up 5th.
What would have happened if they pit Charles onto hards on 31 or earlier, instead of dropping all the way back to 6th on 34? Leclerc was quoted as he backed off in his second stint as he was told there was no way to catch the leaders. https://www.racefans.net/2019/04/28/lec ... -pit-stop/
Especially on a tire that he couldn't lean on for very long. Again, what if he had hards for 20 laps and pushed within reason?
I think these conversations are great but also do understand that they may not fit into these boards elegantly but these are the ones I'd like to pursue. Currently, there is no board here that supports them.
I'd assume most software that teams use is robust, bespoke and requires more computing power than my and my little laptop. Calculating all possibilities of even a 10 lap race, in some sort of Monte Carlo Simulation per lap, can make the beach ball show up. That said, I think we (in the forum) can make more-than educated guesses based on free practice times, and overall how the race went. And there are some software solutions that we all can come up with that I think would be fun (such as the CFD threads).
Slo Poke wrote: ↑
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:24 am
Sochi; 2014 Championship clincher. Was it a strategically pre-planned race from lap one, to end in a one, two finish, or just luck?
I'd go with luck and just over-aggressiveness by Nico. He flat spotted his tires T1 and never had a legit shot at going for it. The race ends up differently and maybe more entertaining if Nico tries an undercut and Hamilton has to come back at him in the 2nd stint. In terms of team strategy, for Red Bull, that's a tough one as they were clearly off the Mercs pace, looking at qualifying results.