That is one way to look at it, but IMO not quite accurate. Matter of fact is, Ferrari/Vettel led this years championship for the majority of it and that despite having less wins and pole positions, but because on average they were finishing in higher positions while Mercedes was trying to come to grips with its car. The Asia races changed all that, when Vettel/Ferrari failed to get the results the car was good for on 3 races.Schuttelberg wrote: ↑Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:36 pmMercedes had 15 poles and 12 wins this year and Ferrari had the best package?Phil wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:39 pmI am just going to put my speculation on 2018 in as well.
I personally see RedBull as the biggest contender in 2018. Why? I think towards the end of this season, the RedBull was most let down by its engine and yet, despite this shortcoming, managed to contest for wins with genuine pace. Assuming the gap between engines will narrow down further, I can only see this making RedBull even stronger than they already are.
Ferrari already has a very strong package, perhaps the best package this year, but that package is aided IMO by a better engine vs the RedBull. Mercedes also had a very strong package despite the problems they had, but I think some things worked in their favor this year that may not next year:
1.) Qualifying pace put them on pole, even on tracks where they perhaps didn't have the quickest package under race conditions
2.) The car is following a different aero philosophy and with the ban on their suspension, they may face problems keeping up long term (unless they change it, but find themselves behind)
3.) They may still struggle with tires every now and then that is IMO also linked to the nature of their car.
I think these 3 factors may overall lead to less consistent results for Mercedes in 2018 and with stronger competitors may push them down.
So for now, purely by my speculation, I see RedBull slightly ahead, with Mercedes and Ferrari behind closely. Honestly, I wouldn't surprised to see Max or Dan take the win in Melbourne (inclined to say Max).
Or maybe Mercedes will just surprise us all again with even a more impressive PU (vs their rivals) in 2018...
Sebastian Vettel must be an awful driver then!
At the beginning of 2017, I was overly confident Mercedes/Hamilton would pull it together and win both championships with margins. They did, but I have to admit my confidence was off the mark. That Ferrari should have put up that fight up to the very last race and it was down to a catastrophic few failures and imploding that made it so easy for Mercedes in the end.