[2018] Pecking order speculation thread

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Phil
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by Phil » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:09 am

I am still going with RedBull for the strongest competitor, vs. Mercedes.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. (Ask the average Vettel fan what that's like.) --- bhall II
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marvin78
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by marvin78 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:27 am

And I am going with that they don't have a real competitor.

Vasconia
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by Vasconia » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:13 am

gcdugas wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:14 am
1 Ferrari (yes, you read that right; Vettel will emerge as #1 in team by Baku race 4)
2 Merc (Hamilton may still win WDC if Bottas plays second fiddle early enough in the season)
3 Red Bull (Ricciardo will still have the measure of Verstappen in points)
4 McLaren (mainly because of Alonso)
5 Force India (drivers are very strong)
6 Renault (because drivers are better than Haas)
7 Haas (car is at least the equal of Renault because of strong Ferrari engine)
8 STR (drivers better than Williams)
9 Williams (utter crap driver line-up)
10 Sauber (despite engine parity with Haas, and factory Ferrari gearbox, could jump two spots forward on strength of engine)
The new Sauber looks like a great improvement from lasts year car, I hope that with time they can extract more performance.

bonjon1979
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by bonjon1979 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:22 pm

Vasconia wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:13 am
gcdugas wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:14 am
1 Ferrari (yes, you read that right; Vettel will emerge as #1 in team by Baku race 4)
2 Merc (Hamilton may still win WDC if Bottas plays second fiddle early enough in the season)
3 Red Bull (Ricciardo will still have the measure of Verstappen in points)
4 McLaren (mainly because of Alonso)
5 Force India (drivers are very strong)
6 Renault (because drivers are better than Haas)
7 Haas (car is at least the equal of Renault because of strong Ferrari engine)
8 STR (drivers better than Williams)
9 Williams (utter crap driver line-up)
10 Sauber (despite engine parity with Haas, and factory Ferrari gearbox, could jump two spots forward on strength of engine)
The new Sauber looks like a great improvement from lasts year car, I hope that with time they can extract more performance.
1. Merc
2. Red Bull
3.Ferrari
4. Renault = Haas = Mclaren
7. STR
8. WIlliams
9. Force India
10. Sauber

dren
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by dren » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:24 pm

I think FI will be up in that #4 mix.
Honda!

Blackout
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by Blackout » Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:12 pm

No way Haas or FI are 4th. Renault and Mclaren are back to business and they ll be 4th and 5th.
Merc might be a clear number 1 but I'm not not sure yet :P

the EDGE
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by the EDGE » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:16 pm

I believe for the last couple of tests, teams fastest laps have given us and indication of the teams position at the first race, so my prediction for the top driver in each team for Melbourne quali is as follows

Merc
Ferrari
Redbull

McLaren
Hass
Renault
Force india

Toro Rosso
Williams
Sauber

Blackout
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by Blackout » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:49 pm

the EDGE wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:16 pm
I believe for the last couple of tests, teams fastest laps have given us and indication of the teams position at the first race
Nope. Some did qualy runs with low fuel and some not, like the Renault, the Merc, the FI...
So making a pecking order based on the fastest lap is nonesense.
Some teams were able to do a 1:17 or even a 1:16 theoretically (based on their medium runs for example) but didnt.
Race sims are more reliable but you you must remember the conditions and the tires were not the same for eveybody... some did their sim on thursday while the other did it in friday...
Last edited by Blackout on Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Blackout
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by Blackout » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:57 pm

A very good analysis: https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2018/03 ... -analysis/
but you must remember that the conditions and the tires used were not the same for eveybody... some did their sim on thursday while the other did it in friday...

IamLegend
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by IamLegend » Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:49 pm

Here's my pecking order, I've noticed testing pace as a leading factor for most of the pecking order. I'm not going to be reckless and claim that the fastest times during testing as the only barometer. I'm also considering the PUs (power and reliability) and team drivers to mix up the pecking order most have laid out.

1. Mercedes - Still the best and reliable PU clocking over a 1000 horses plus Drivers and magic "quali" modes that all teams which run the Mercedes PU.

2 & 3. (interchangeable)
Ferrari - Second best due to works team and Vettel
Red Bull - The drivers might give them the edge over Ferrari if they can consistently take victories from the start of the season.

4 & 5. (interchangeable)
Force India - Best of rest in terms of Driver combo and the PU of course and if the Australian upgrades click, there's no looking back.
Renault - If Hulk can turn his luck around, together with Sainz they can give Force India pair a decent fight.

6. McLaren - Alonso is the magic potion here, other wise team will still take time to understand the new PU and 2nd driver isn't the best.

7. Haas - They'll beat Wiliams hands down, Grosjean is stronger of the Williams strongest which is Stroll currently, plus the Ferrari PU.

8. Williams - Rookie plus an okay experienced driver, only advantage is the PU.

9. Toro Rosso - If the Honda PUs are as reliable as they showed in testing in terms of race mileage.

10. Sauber - They can upset TR, if reliability issues come up for TR.

HPD
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by HPD » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:53 pm

I'm surprised how many people say that TR is only going to win Sauber.

Am I the only blind here?
Luckily AMUS thinks like me..

jericho
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by jericho » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:11 pm

So, this is my prediction for the 2018 season:

1-Merc

2-Ferrari
3-Red Bull

4-Renault
5-Toro Rosso
6-Mclaren
7-Force India
8-Haas
9-Williams
10-Sauber

continuum16
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by continuum16 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:12 am

Looking at the data of longer runs as well as laptimes posted (yes, I know) and keeping in mind the trend of previous years;

1) Mercedes; no-brainer, their long runs were considerably the quickest and we’ve seen before that they can turn it up in quali better than anyone

2) Red Bull/ Ferrari; RB will essentially start where they ended las season, about half a second down in qualifying and a few tenths closer in the races. Ferrari are really nip-tuck with RB, they will not be quickest as times say, since they have usually run the lightest in testing, but will be solid enough to rack up podiums and the odd win.

4) McLaren/Haas/Renault; All midfield teams will be quite close, and logic says you should pick the Renault teams over Haas, but the data will show that on race sims Haas was a more than a match for either of them and they typically don’t go full-out in testing either. What separates these three from the other midfield is the driver quality. Renault and McLaren both are good in development, and I expect by midseason at the latest they will be definitively ahead of Haas. Between those two? The more reliable car will win out.

7) Force India/Williams/STR; FI will start here but will progress upwards, as has been recent trend. Williams looks really lost; their car seems very pesky and on edge, but I think it offers the best scope for development out of the entire grid. STR will be exactly like last season, picking up loose change, but the drivers will stay the whole year.

10) Sauber; same as last year but the actual time gap to the front has decreased.
Ferrari: "last lap Kimi, all or nothing" *crashes into Bottas*

the EDGE
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by the EDGE » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:14 am

Blackout wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:49 pm
the EDGE wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:16 pm
I believe for the last couple of tests, teams fastest laps have given us and indication of the teams position at the first race
Nope. Some did qualy runs with low fuel and some not, like the Renault, the Merc, the FI...
So making a pecking order based on the fastest lap is nonesense.
Some teams were able to do a 1:17 or even a 1:16 theoretically (based on their medium runs for example) but didnt.
Race sims are more reliable but you you must remember the conditions and the tires were not the same for eveybody... some did their sim on thursday while the other did it in friday...
That will be why I haven’t put the teams down in order of their fastest laps then! I said an INDICATION for a reason

Time will tell, and it’s only 10 days away

techman
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Re: [2018] Pecking order speculation thread

Post by techman » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:01 pm

the team with the fastest development will be the team to do well in the end. i reckon top3 is not reachable for other teams. however midfield teams like torro rosso that have honda backing might do well in mid season. hass for me is the favourite to be 4th in championship at the end along with renault.. force india might fall back if no development come through. william might improve.