Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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izzy
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by izzy » Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:51 pm

RZS10 wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:02 pm

My mom almost put us 'under a truck' leaving a gas station on a b-road because she underestimated the truck's speed and overestimated our (fully packed) car's acceleration, she was well rested (slept in the car) whilst i had been awake for half a day + the entire trip and i was still fit enough to realize her mistake in her stead and to grab the wheel and move the car as far to the right as possible just in time to be overtaken by the truck going three wide with the oncoming trucks ... so doing potentially deadly --- doesn't necessarily have to do with tiredness :P

Yes, most trips are really short but most people will also do a longer one every now and then ... and most can't afford a small electric car for the city and some highway cruiser for the longer trips they'd do a few times a year.

That's why most car makers say that one of the main customer demands is a high range, that's why a lot of the EVs are SUVs because they can pack them full of batteries to achieve something that is 'acceptable' (~400 km)

Just think of the people you know and how they use their cars.

Most will just drive to work daily doing less than those 30 miles twice a day, so you end up with 230 work days x2 trips that are short - that's still two trips per month that are longer than those 30 miles.

Man that old guy in the vid Big Tea posted is almost creaming his pants over some touch to pay ... lmao
Well true your story isn't too much about tiredness is it, it's more boy saves girl :wink: :lol: . But yes true a long range is handy sometimes, the best thing atm is probably one ICE and one EV in the family. About 40% of families in the UK have 2 cars, according to this article and the number of families.

Also on average new EV's already have a range over 200 miles apparently

RZS10
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by RZS10 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:54 pm

The story was more about that being tired doesn't necessarily mean you'll be too slow in the head to react properly ... or some such ... (and both my siblings and my dad were in the car at that time so not 'boy saves girl' but 'boy saves his fam' [-o< )

Theoretically yea, one EV just for the city, the 'family car' for road trips AND for the city.
400km is well above 320km (200miles) ... it's mostly the bigger cars and SUVs that can reach more than that

rscsr
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by rscsr » Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:57 am

Phil wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:34 pm
djos wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:23 pm
AJI wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:57 pm

Indeed. How is this massive extra requirement for electricity distributed through a grid that can barely cope at the moment?
I can see a push for a 'Grid Demand Tax' for PEV owners in our future. Then there's the extra electricity generation demands...
Oh rubbish, you guys are assuming everyone needs to pump 60-100 kWh's into their car every night when this is not the case. Most folk drive no more than 60 kms per day so that's ~10 kWh's per vehicle or likely much less for those who drive to the local railway station and back every day.

The grid will evolve to meet demand, just as it always has.

Ps you know why 11 pm to 7am is called off peak right? Cause heavy industry etc aren't active leaving plenty of power for EV's to top up their charge.
Instead of assuming how much people drive, you should do the math backwards; take statistical data of how much mileage is being driven per day on the roads in your country and divide it by the typical energy/mileage stats of electric cars and calculate how much electricity would be required to satisfy that demand. I bet the figure you’d come up with is quite a bit higher than the ~60km figure you are throwing around.

Ps: if everyone will charge their EVs overnight, i guarantee you it wont stay “off peak”.
In Europe the average driving distance is quite a bit lower than the conservative 60km figure.
Check this document from the European Commission https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents ... 33c92a7186 Although it is in German the important table is the one on the second page. And this statistic is mainly from the early 2000s, but I highly doubt that it changed a whole lot.
This statisticfrom the German Auto Driver Club shows between 15 and 18km average distance per way, so about 30 to 36km per "work day"

izzy
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by izzy » Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:59 pm

RZS10 wrote:
Theoretically yea, one EV just for the city, the 'family car' for road trips AND for the city.
400km is well above 320km (200miles) ... it's mostly the bigger cars and SUVs that can reach more than that
Yes the size and weight of the batteries is an issue for the moment isn't it, i was in a Model X and it's enormous! Tho the weight is so low down and the track is huge too so the handling was pretty good, and the silent acceleration was amazing

Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:07 pm

RZS10 wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:02 pm
Andres125sx wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:32 pm
That link is focused on falling asleep, but thanks
Which one do you mean?

Most papers about that subject say it's many many hours before monotonous driving gets actually dangerous.

That 2h drive / 30min break suggestion is for "everyone" so even the worst drivers in a relatively bad condition ...

But i agree to some extent ... yes, in theory one might lose some focus and one might not be at peak mental capacity and it might get worse with every hour driven, but even after several hours most will be well fit enough to drive properly without being tired - this will of course be very different for everyone (like Big Tea just wrote, one hour stints might work for him, i'd get annoyed at the frequent stopping and loss of 'flow')

I assume it has much to do with how you drive though (monotonous consistent speed or flowing with traffic keeping you 'active') and where you drive (US all lanes go the same slow speed, Autobahn allows doing up to 200kph with moderate traffic) but In theory long driving might increase the chances of losing focus for a brief moment, and there's a chance that this could happen just in the wrong moment leading to an accident but the loss of focus could just as well be caused by a variety of things that also require you to take your eyes off the road ahead like changing the radio station, sneezing, checking whether you're over the speed limit, checking the mirrors, looking at the satnav, picking your nose etc

Very theoretically the risks increase the longer one drives but so does every kph speed increase for example, so ideally in order to be super safe and to stay focussed one should crawl around on the right lane stopping at least every 2 hours for 30 minutes.

In the real world barely anyone does that and it works almost all of the time, unfortunately some are overconfident in their driving skills or their physical state and end up dead or worse killing someone but fortunately we don't live in a bleak world where we're forced to do things a certain way because we 'should' or because of the off chance something bad might happen.

So ultimately it doesn't matter, it's (as with many other things) theory vs. praxis, someone will study something and make a very safe suggestion, it's all fine as long as it doesn't end up being law ... and I'm not suggesting people should drive for 8 hours straight after a long day of work or anything but there's absolutely nothing wrong with driving for 6 hours straight when you're well rested and if your car allows it...
Sorry but can´t agree with this. I know my mentality is far from usual for most people, but I think when you sit behind the wheel you must keep focus on the road 100% as any distraction may be fatal. As stated 99.999% of distraction won´t be fatal, but that´s not any guarantee next will be. We all get used to driving, we do it daily, and that causes a false feeling of safety. That´s what the dirty dozen defines as complacency, wich basically means when someone have lots of experience in something, he/she easily lower his/her guard. It´s like if we connect the autopilot and drive without even thinkng about it. That´s IMHO a big mistake, driving can be done automatically, but when some problem does appear, that lack of focus on the road will mean your reaction time will be seconds instead of tenths, and that´s a huge difference in a dangerous situation wich may be the difference between dodging an accident, or killing yourself/your family/friends or any other family.

Driving for hours continuously causes same effect, lack of proper focus on the road. Driving is moving more than a ton of metal around with people you usually love inside and whose lifes depend on you, at speeds wich require dozens meters to stop it, and we usually forget this simple and scary fact. We should repeat this to ourselves frequently to avoid complacency. I do it and even so I commit the above mistakes from time to time


Apart from that, I´m not sure what cars do you guys drive, or what seats you use, because my butt ask me for a break each 2-3 hours of driving :mrgreen:

RZS10
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by RZS10 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:30 pm

Just drive around assuming everyone else is Maldonado, that will keep you on your toes and 100% focussed :lol:

Andres125sx
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Andres125sx » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:01 am

RZS10 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:30 pm
Just drive around assuming everyone else is Maldonado, that will keep you on your toes and 100% focussed :lol:
:lol: :lol:

Actually, that´s more or less my mentality when on the bike, I try to think I´m invisible and nobody noticed me

Brake Horse Power
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Brake Horse Power » Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:29 am

Probably in a few years time there will not be a reason to stop the car to prevent driver fatigue, as the electric cars will have full self driving capabilities.

izzy
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by izzy » Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:46 pm

Brake Horse Power wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:29 am
Probably in a few years time there will not be a reason to stop the car to prevent driver fatigue, as the electric cars will have full self driving capabilities.
And i think it's already more energy efficient to have a train of cars than a rail train [HS2...]

Jolle
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Jolle » Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:06 pm

Well, I can already see a shift in use of transportation, in a way I didn't suspect. My youngest who is now 18, doesn't see the need to get his driving licence. He thinks it's expensive (in the Netherlands it is), a car is too expensive (which it is) and most of all, inconvenient because while he's driving, he's offline....

When I grew up, the ultimate freedom was first a moped (which we made to go as fast as possible) and when we were old enough, a car. This generation's sense of freedom is 4G.... who would have thought.

For myself, I've been living without a car for about 5 years now and only mis it a couple of days a year. It does help that I live at walking distance from a big train station and that the public transport system in The Netherlands isn't to bad. I do cheat a bit with my motorcycle.... but normal things, like going to work I do by train, big shopping with a cargo bike and for those few day's a year where a car is useful, I pick up a rental. There is a wonderful system here where there are rental car's available all over town, you can order them instantly online and swipe them open with your train card.

so per year I only drive in a car for maybe 500km, a few 1000 km on my motorbike and the costs from owning a car, a couple of thousands only in taxes, parking, insurance, maintenance and petrol went down to a couple of hundred a year on my motorbike and train.

izzy
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by izzy » Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:56 pm

Jolle wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:06 pm
Well, I can already see a shift in use of transportation, in a way I didn't suspect. My youngest who is now 18, doesn't see the need to get his driving licence. He thinks it's expensive (in the Netherlands it is), a car is too expensive (which it is) and most of all, inconvenient because while he's driving, he's offline....
People probably are going to travel less aren't we, over time. There's so much digital communication now that's the logical conclusion. Tho personally if I had £57k i'd instantly blow it on a Model3 Performance :D

Jolle
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Jolle » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:21 pm

izzy wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:56 pm
Jolle wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:06 pm
Well, I can already see a shift in use of transportation, in a way I didn't suspect. My youngest who is now 18, doesn't see the need to get his driving licence. He thinks it's expensive (in the Netherlands it is), a car is too expensive (which it is) and most of all, inconvenient because while he's driving, he's offline....
People probably are going to travel less aren't we, over time. There's so much digital communication now that's the logical conclusion. Tho personally if I had £57k i'd instantly blow it on a Model3 Performance :D
I don't know if we are going to travel less. What I do see with my own use, that travel time is less waisted time. pre-digital and even pre cellphone, you were just driving with the radio on. Now I'm sitting in the train, working or connecting to other people. Let's say I have an appointment in Amsterdam, which takes an hour to get there by car and about the same by public transport, I can get at least 1,5 hours of work out of it (going back and fourth), while in the car I'm just sitting there... and less stress to find a parking spot on the Herengracht (and paying more in parking then the train ticket costs)

izzy
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by izzy » Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:49 pm

Jolle wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:21 pm

I don't know if we are going to travel less. What I do see with my own use, that travel time is less waisted time. pre-digital and even pre cellphone, you were just driving with the radio on. Now I'm sitting in the train, working or connecting to other people. Let's say I have an appointment in Amsterdam, which takes an hour to get there by car and about the same by public transport, I can get at least 1,5 hours of work out of it (going back and fourth), while in the car I'm just sitting there... and less stress to find a parking spot on the Herengracht (and paying more in parking then the train ticket costs)
Yes i see, good points, but when you get to your real non-virtual meeting it's not very effective is it? It's a social thing, with no time to think and the top item on everyone's agenda being their own self-esteem :D

So i do think the range thing is going to become less and less of a factor, over time

strad
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by strad » Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:26 pm

I have a question for Andres. I have for a long time wondered what car that is in his avatar. Is it electric? I assume it's some kind of dream car.
honest question.. I cannot make out what it is.
For some of us going for a drive is a form of relaxation. A chance to get away from the pressures of the day.
Motorsport without danger is like cooking without salt
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djos
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by djos » Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:54 pm

strad wrote:
Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:26 pm
I have a question for Andres. I have for a long time wondered what car that is in his avatar. Is it electric? I assume it's some kind of dream car.
honest question.. I cannot make out what it is.
For some of us going for a drive is a form of relaxation. A chance to get away from the pressures of the day.
Sorry to reply on his behalf, but I'm pretty sure it's the Denny Hulme "F1" car.

http://www.hulmesupercars.com/specifications/

http://www.hulmesupercars.com/gallery/
The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.