PhillipM wrote: ↑
Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:20 am
I was just looking back through the numbers yesterday and I don't think it's going to be enough, is it? Even if everyone elses cars gained almost nothing over the winter it would barely be enough of a gain to get them even in the fight at the back - and usually most teams find ~0.5-1s a lap over winter relative to the previous years car.
Have they just written off this year again to concentrate on next years rule changes? That's bitten them so many times already I'm just sorta amazed they'd fall into the same trap. Anyone else heard anything similar?
It depends, I suppose. Given stable regulations, the gains made will be smaller with each new season, and the closer you get to the front. And that’s going to be purely aero, it won’t take account of any time gained from PU improvements. The word seems to be that Merc has made some significant gains in that department over the winter, so the total time gain by Williams may be more - although it will of course be the same relative to other Merc teams.
1.5s seems conservative to me though. I was under the impression that last season, most teams found back the two seconds lost to the simplified front wing, and another second or so on top of that, while Williams only clawed back the 2s from the front wing. We’ll see... In-season development will also be crucial. I fully expect Williams to start the season last again, but if they’re only a couple of tenths off the back, as opposed to a couple of seconds, then they have a chance of leapfrogging one or two teams through development. Their in-season development was better than Haas and Alfa in 2019, they just started too far back for it to make a difference.