There are 2 basic faults in your analysis.
First you assume that when vall said "he had nothing to loose" he meant something else.
Then you assume that all outcomes have nearly equal probability, which is not true. Mark was damn lucky to get a most improbable outcome. You also forget one possible outcome. Getting penalized.
In the end Mark was probably not thinking straight, red mist and all, and is 100% to blame for causing an accident. Should be penalized, but he's groomed it seems for champion this year, after Vettel screwed it up with his childish antics and reckless driving.
The end.
Also, Webber was still faster than the McLarens at that point (especially without the damage he took), he could have gotten in good position to push for a pass on next turn (or laps). Or you know, keep the 4th place, not bad, still ahead in championship. What he did was foolish and damn lucky. Not a good choice as some here have tried to pass it as.
Fair enough, there are cetainly flaws to my logic as I've presented it. With that said, my only intention was to suggest that Mark was acting a bit more "calculated" than simply racing for that corner. You are right, my analysis was by no means comprehensive, but neither would have MW's to the extent that he was behaving as I'm suggesting.
In conclusion I am adimant that the clash would not have occured if the roles were reversed. Thats not to say that Lewis is/isnt a better driver than Mark, mearly that MW's incentives at that point in time could lead to some dubious behavior.
All in all, this isn't about Webber/Lewis being a terrible driver. Its about a situational moment that we'd be hard pressed to find direct comparables for. Furthermore, I think we all just want to keep this event alive because we cannot wait for Suzuka and there is only so much new material on other websites.
