2021 Pecking order prediction

[proteus]

1. Mercedes
2. RedBull
3. Aston Martin
4. Ferrari
5. Mclaren/Alpine
6.
7. Alpha Tauri
8. Alfa Romeo
9. Williams
10. Haas

I guess it will be tight between Mclaren and Alpine for 5th and 6th so i will leave it undecided. As much as i would love to see Mclaren in top 3 spot, i believe it will be too difficult for them to fight against an evolution of Aston Martin and resurgent Ferrari. I expect that Alpha Tauri will again jump in the mix at certain races, while Alfa Romeo, Williams and Haas will be at the back fighting for scraps with Haas being the worst of the three.

[F1doc]

1 Mercedes
8/9 Alfa/Haas
10 Williams

Testing hasn't even started...

However I think it will be fairly competitive for the rest and I can see it varying track to track and on driver form. There was a disparity with the "Class C" teams to steal point scoring opportunities during last year with so many stronger outfits. Just look at the points gap between Alpha and Alfa...I don't see this changing.

Of the stragglers, I think Alfa have the strongest driver pairing to take chance of any opportunity, Haas usually have sound strategy calls like Magnussen being called in on the formation lap at Hungary last year.

[djones]

Mercedes engine to be a complete game-changer, even more so than in recent years. Magnified by Honda not fully developing due to pulling out of F1.

Mercedes
Aston Martin
Mclaren
Redbull
Alpine
Ferrari
AT
Williams
AR
Haas

[godlameroso]

Wow! Mercedes lost a bunch of engine staff last year, are you sure the engine will gain as much as you think it will? Also you think the Honda engine will be weak and undeveloped? Well I know for sure you have zero clue what's going on at Honda because if you did you would not be so quick to downplay what they have accomplished. Will it smoke the Mercedes, no, but it is a very good power unit, I feel it will be competitive with anything else out there unless it smokes itself.

[IanMcNaughton]

Let's start with 2021 predictions.

My prediction.

Mercedes
McLaren/Red Bull
Aston Martin Racing
Ferrari
Renault
Alpha Tauri
Alfa Romeo
Haas
Williams

Cars to be over a second slower than 2020, thanks to Pirelli's 2021 tyres.

I don't hate these rankings. Personally, I believe Williams will be closer in performance to Alfa than Haas but that's a bit of a hot take. The wild card of all constructors this season for me is Ferrari with the addition of Sainz. Things can't be any worst than last season right? Right?!?!?!

[El Scorchio]

Wow! Mercedes lost a bunch of engine staff last year, are you sure the engine will gain as much as you think it will? Also you think the Honda engine will be weak and undeveloped? Well I know for sure you have zero clue what's going on at Honda because if you did you would not be so quick to downplay what they have accomplished. Will it smoke the Mercedes, no, but it is a very good power unit, I feel it will be competitive with anything else out there unless it smokes itself.

Reliability could indeed be their achilles heel, if they have had to squeeze in or bring forward development. We will soon find out what the pecking order is. I do love this time of year.

[djones]

Wow! Mercedes lost a bunch of engine staff last year, are you sure the engine will gain as much as you think it will? Also you think the Honda engine will be weak and undeveloped? Well I know for sure you have zero clue what's going on at Honda because if you did you would not be so quick to downplay what they have accomplished. Will it smoke the Mercedes, no, but it is a very good power unit, I feel it will be competitive with anything else out there unless it smokes itself.

Mercedes were having to run de-tuned a lot of last year. Even if they made no power gains and only reliability they would have a jump in performance from that alone.

However, JA has said they have made strong gains. Not only that, they visibly have engine-related changes to the bodywork that suggests a different approach to gaining more performance. Which makes what JA is saying believable.

Lets also not forget the track record of Mercedes to constantly innovate and be at the forefront.

Honda on the other hand are esssentially running scared with their tails between their legs. They (and Redbull) had built up this idea that the ONLY reason the Mercedes PU was better was due to the qualifying modes. As soon as they were banned it was actually Honda that went backwards relatively.

It was at this exact moment Honda realised they could not compete with Mercedes. From there its now gone as far as them pulling out of F1.

If you honestly think a busienss that has given notice on contracts is going to put in 100% effort and financial backing you are very deluded I'm affraid!!! The Honda engine will be better than last year, but nowhere near what it would have been with the full force of the comapny behind it.

[LM10]

Mercedes engine to be a complete game-changer, even more so than in recent years. Magnified by Honda not fully developing due to pulling out of F1.

Mercedes
Aston Martin
Mclaren
Redbull
Alpine
Ferrari
AT
Williams
AR
Haas

Honda not fully developing due to pulling out of F1 does not make sense to me. There is no reason for them not to push even if it was their last season (which it isn't as they're gonna develop 2022 PU as well) because who would not want their brand to be written on the title winning car at the end? Also, there could not be a better satisfaction after all Honda needed to go through in the first couple of years.

RedBull will be fighting for the title in 2021. They seem to be really serious about their business this time, more than ever. Their opponent will be Mercedes works team, not Aston Martin and McLaren.

Mercedes were having to run de-tuned a lot of last year. Even if they made no power gains and only reliability they would have a jump in performance from that alone.

In 2019 yes, but can't remember Mercedes needing to run de-tuned in 2020, surely not "a lot of last year".

[Peter1919]

Here is my prediction

1. Merc
2. Redbull
3. Ferrari
4. McLaren
5. AM
6. Alpine
7. Alpha Tauri
8. Alfa Romeo
9. HAAS
10. Williams

I think the midfield competition is going to be fierce this season and if Ferrari really have recovered some of their engine losses then 3 to 8 could be in almost any order. HAAS having already stopped development on this seasons car will be below that and Williams are still just too far back to catch up with the rest given then minimal changes allowed this season.

[dans79]

Honda not fully developing due to pulling out of F1 does not make sense to me. There is no reason for them not to push even if it was their last season (which it isn't as they're gonna develop 2022 PU as well) because who would not want their brand to be written on the title winning car at the end? Also, there could not be a better satisfaction after all Honda needed to go through in the first couple of years.

I don't know about you, but if I knew ahead of time the company I work for was going to make a substantial change such as this, that was going to directly affect my division/department, I'd be looking to get out asap.

In other words even if they are pushing, I don't think it will be as hard as it was before, simple because staff will be leaving/relocating etc.

[LM10]

If you're hoping for a distraction from the 2022 cars, I would point out that Mercedes designed two cars a couple of years ago, tested one and then raced the other. If any team can fully campaign in 2021 and design for 2022 at the same time, it's them.

I'm also excited about the season. I think it will be a lot closer than it has been for a while - early 2018 close, for example. I can see Lewis and Max fighting it out and someone else sneaking through behind them. Wouldn't that be an interesting season?

They tested a car in the first week and then got a big upgrade package for the second week as far as I remember. I doubt it was two cars designed at the same time rather than upgrades which were fully ready only in the second half of testing.

. . . the cost cap . . .

In 2019, the car that Mercedes rolled out in the first week of testing was a specification that had been "frozen" a few months prior to the start of the season.

They had been developing the car/package that they brought to the second week of testing concurrently with that spec. That was the year the front wing regulations changed. It was a monumental task for Mercedes to adapt, because they had the most complicated FW in the paddock prior to '19. It featured a really intricate set of outwash tunnels built into the outboard section of the FW flaps, among other features.

Regarding the cost cap, Mercedes has said that they've found new ways to be more efficient with their resources (financial, wind tunnel, CFD, etc.), which has in turn given them a performance boost. They also launched the Applied Sciences Division of the team with INEOS, which is a clever way to adapt to the cap.

In sum, I definitely think the cost cap is going to relieve some pressure on some of the midfield teams, but I'm not expecting it to rattle a team like Merc. They'll find a way to make it work to their advantage.

I’ve read what Toto told regarding the cost cap. Basically it's a motivational and optimistic way of view he has on it and sees an opportunity. He's right of course because teams who have been efficient in the past will cope better with it and in his opinion (in mine as well) Mercedes is a highly efficient team.
However, I don't think that the cost cap will put them in a much better position relative to the midfield teams because midfield teams have always needed to be as efficient as possible with their limited resources. It's better to be efficient and have unlimited resources than the need to be efficient and have limited resources, I think.

I guess that all top teams have found/will find ways to adapt to it and retain talent to some extent. For Mercedes it's the Applied Science Division, for Ferrari the transfer of personnel to Haas and building a sports car team and RedBull transfers personnel to somewhere else too. Which of them will have done a better job, we'll find out in the near future.

[Wouter]

Honda not fully developing due to pulling out of F1 does not make sense to me. There is no reason for them not to push even if it was their last season (which it isn't as they're gonna develop 2022 PU as well) because who would not want their brand to be written on the title winning car at the end? Also, there could not be a better satisfaction after all Honda needed to go through in the first couple of years.

I don't know about you, but if I knew ahead of time the company I work for was going to make a substantial change such as this, that was going to directly affect my division/department, I'd be looking to get out asap.

In other words even if they are pushing, I don't think it will be as hard as it was before, simple because staff will be leaving/relocating etc.

You are obviously not aware of the Japanese mentality. They want to become World champions at all costs.
They live in the present and work hard to achieve that, regardless of the further course of their career.
Moreover, Honda has made sure that all Honda people continue to get a good job.

[dans79]

You are obviously not aware of the Japanese mentality. They want to become World champions at all costs.
They live in the present and work hard to achieve that, regardless of the further course of their career.
Moreover, Honda has made sure that all Honda people continue to get a good job.

Considering I have several Japanese coworkers, I'm going to have to disagree with that sentiment! Secondly, guaranteeing a job doesn't mean it will be doing something they like, or working/living in the same location they currently are.

[zibby43]

They tested a car in the first week and then got a big upgrade package for the second week as far as I remember. I doubt it was two cars designed at the same time rather than upgrades which were fully ready only in the second half of testing.

. . . the cost cap . . .

In 2019, the car that Mercedes rolled out in the first week of testing was a specification that had been "frozen" a few months prior to the start of the season.

They had been developing the car/package that they brought to the second week of testing concurrently with that spec. That was the year the front wing regulations changed. It was a monumental task for Mercedes to adapt, because they had the most complicated FW in the paddock prior to '19. It featured a really intricate set of outwash tunnels built into the outboard section of the FW flaps, among other features.

Regarding the cost cap, Mercedes has said that they've found new ways to be more efficient with their resources (financial, wind tunnel, CFD, etc.), which has in turn given them a performance boost. They also launched the Applied Sciences Division of the team with INEOS, which is a clever way to adapt to the cap.

In sum, I definitely think the cost cap is going to relieve some pressure on some of the midfield teams, but I'm not expecting it to rattle a team like Merc. They'll find a way to make it work to their advantage.

I’ve read what Toto told regarding the cost cap. Basically it's a motivational and optimistic way of view he has on it and sees an opportunity. He's right of course because teams who have been efficient in the past will cope better with it and in his opinion (in mine as well) Mercedes is a highly efficient team.
However, I don't think that the cost cap will put them in a much better position relative to the midfield teams because midfield teams have always needed to be as efficient as possible with their limited resources. It's better to be efficient and have unlimited resources than the need to be efficient and have limited resources, I think.

I guess that all top teams have found/will find ways to adapt to it and retain talent to some extent. For Mercedes it's the Applied Science Division, for Ferrari the transfer of personnel to Haas and building a sports car team and RedBull transfers personnel to somewhere else too. Which of them will have done a better job, we'll find out in the near future.

That's what I was trying to communicate with my initial reply: that the cost cap will relieve pressure on midfield teams in general, not that it will further put Mercedes/RB/Ferrari in better position relative to those teams.

Red Bull now has Advanced Technologies. What is Ferrari's new wing called?

[F1doc]

Red Bull now has Advanced Technologies. What is Ferrari's new wing called?

I think they are reassigned to help Haas.

Haas beens.