I predict a Verstappen victory, since RB21 works well with low DF setup, especially after the Monza update. At Monza, Red Bull showed they can trim their wings right down, run very low drag, and still keep the car stable and fast in braking/traction zones.
In Baku most of the middle-sector corners are slow 90° turns. At low speed, downforce doesn’t contribute as much (mechanical grip from the tyres is more important). So trimming wing levels doesn’t hurt lap time as badly as it would at a track full of fast corners. The run from Turn 16 all the way down to Turn 1 is over 2 km flat-out, nearly 20+ seconds at full throttle. A car with lower drag gains a big chunk of time here.
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