So Ricciardo with a Renault lucked in to it. Vettel must be the unluckiest guy on the grid
well actually kimi was the unluckiest driver on the grid , vettel was actually quite lucky
consider hamilton had a new engine which failed when he was in the lead last year and cost him the championship...vettel had his failure pre qually and finished 4th !
pre race I estimated hamilton would gain 5 points....3rd against 5th for vettel ....even kimi being out only cost him 1 point for 2nd against 4th
and if you had to pick a track to start from the back in the fastest car you would pick this one ....that was really lucky
to the optimist a glass is half full ; to the pessimist a glass is half empty ; to the F1 engineer the glass is twice as big as it needs to be
So Ricciardo with a Renault lucked in to it. Vettel must be the unluckiest guy on the grid
pre race I estimated hamilton would gain 5 points....3rd against 5th for vettel ....even kimi being out only cost him 1 point for 2nd against 4th
and if you had to pick a track to start from the back in the fastest car you would pick this one ....that was really lucky
Agreed. The kind of performance margin that the top 3 teams have over the field, 6th is a minimum given for any of the drivers from the top 3 teams, starting from the back of the grid. If a driver from the top 3 retires, then 5th is a given. And if any driver from the top 3 teams is having a bad day, like in Silverstone (Vettel, that helped Bottas), Italy (both Ferraris that helped Ric) and Malaysia (Bottas), then additional one more place is guaranteed.
In the past though, from 2014-16, a second was a minimum for a Mercedes driver starting from the back of the grid. So nowadays, anyone getting a 4th, 5th or 6th from the back of the grid in one of those top 3 cars, is hardly surprising.
Vettel fans will kill you for saying that. Vettel is never lucky
He drove for Red Bull against Mark Webber when they had a championship winning car; and now against an old, and servile, Raikkonen. I'd describe those circumstances as moderately fortunate.
Having said that, Vettel clearly has a talent for picking which way the wind will blow. His team swapping ability has been excellent.
As far as permutations go, it hasn't really changed much. Vettel is still entirely consistent with the trend so far this year. When he finishes behind Hamilton, he is usually not far behind. In reality, finishing 4th to Hamilton 2nd is actually better than if Hamilton had won and him finishing runner up (net-loss 7 points vs 6).
The points gap is now 34 points in Hamiltons favor with 7 wins vs 4. Vettel however has way more 2nd places, so assuming Vettel draws even on wins and they equalize on points, Vettel would take the WDC.
The odds have slightly increased for Hamilton on the basis that he "won" Malaysia relative to Vettel and now Vettel is faced with having one race less, meaning more pressure for him on doing well at the next 5 races. This means that if Hamilton secures one more win, he can afford to finish 3rd in all of the upcoming races and he will be crowned WDC with 1 point (366 vs 365 points).
They haven't changed much from Vettels perspective. If Vettel wins all 5 remaining races, he will be WDC, regardless what Hamilton does. More so, if he wins 4 races, assuming Hamilton wins the 5th race, there's a high probability that Vettel could still win the championship on the basis that for Hamilton to prevent that, he would have to finish 3rd in every race at least. This is probably quite unlikely, as Hamilton has finished on average in position 3.8 across (when not winning). Malaysia has also shown that Mercedes either have a very quick car and if it isn't, there's a high probability that RedBull is also in the hunt, which could potentially push Mercedes further down the grid, meaning a bigger net loss.
Having that said: if Hamilton wins 2 more races, he'll be in a very comfortable position in that he can afford to come 5th, 5th and 6th in the other 3 races to still grab the championship. Alternatively, he could also afford a DNF and a 4th and 3rd place. Another possibility: 6th, 6th and 4th.
If Hamilton wins 3 races, he is WDC and can afford two DNFs.
Adding to that, some things to consider:
- Ferrari continue to show very strong pace on all race tracks
- RedBull has increasingly become a very strong competitor
- Vettel gearbox penalty coming in Japan?
- Vettel/Ferrari have 2 new engines (PU4&5) for the rest of the year if I am not mistaken
- How vulnerable will Mercedes be on any of the next 5 tracks?
- Mercedes performance question mark in Mexico (high altitude) and Brazil
- Mercedes is probably still a force in qualifying which will be great on tracks where overtaking is difficult
- Vettel can no longer afford RedBull to take wins, unless Mercedes run into big reliability issues:
- Easy math: 35 gap / 5 races = 7 points per race is what he needs to overcome on average.
- that's the gap between 1st vs 2nd, 2nd vs 5th, 3rd vs 6th, 4th vs 8th, 5th vs 9th and 6th vs 10th or worse.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II #Team44 supporter
RedBull supposedly is going to be mighty in Japan. That'll take points away for both.
But Vettel undoubtedly is going to get that 5 place grid penalty. And as strong as the Ferrari car itself is,
they've been making quite a mess of things recently, which could mean that we haven't seen the last of Ferrari's woes.
On the contrary, Mercedes seemingly have sorted their issues and are only getting stronger and stronger.
Also, pressure is building up on Vettel now and last time Vettel was pressurized to make a move 'for his WDC aspriations',
he took out both Kimi, himself, AND verstappen and gave the win to Hamilton, which now has taken Ferrari OUT of the WCC
championship and only barely in the WDC competition.
There was the question already on how much damage might have been done to Vettel's car in Singapore, after hitting the wall in qually,
and then slamming into other cars in the race, and now we've had a few power plant changes but contact with stroll saw his entire wheel flipped over.
Kimi couldn't even start, and it seems like in all the stress and pressure, that was down to some 'simplistic' error during 'building'. Japan isn't really a
circuit that is 'soft' on the cars either - so to be honest, i think we're still in for some gremlins for the reds.
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"
if ham finishes ahead of vet in japan he can coast to 2nd like rosberg last year for the remainder of the races.
but we all know that rb now is in the fight to mess that up....
Just out of interest, would Raikkonen have incurred any penalties if Ferrari had changed the Turbo Charger during the race, then sent him out, 20 - 30 laps down? Likewise for other components that could be changed quickly. It just feels like they've missed an opportunity to introduce extra engine components, while taking the full penalty of their failure.
Just a thought. People are suggesting that Vettel won't have any more reliability problems as a result of his new PU at Sepang. But with 5 races remaining, that PU will have to do 6 races in total...has any Ferrari PU managed that this season without a failure??
Favourite driver: Lando Norris
Favourite team: McLaren
Turned down the chance to meet Vettel at Silverstone in 2007. He was a test driver at the time and I didn't think it was worth queuing!! 🤦🏻♂️
