Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[Ferry]

I'm not sure any EV is rated to tow, other than the Tesla Model X,

Audi e-tron, Jaguar i-Pace, Mercedes-Benz EQC, Nissan e-NV200, Tesla Mod. 3.

Soon to come: Audi e-tron Sportback, Audi Q4 e-tron, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Polestar 2, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Skoda Vision iV, VW ID.4

[djos]

Out of all the Tesla competitors, the Mustang Mach E seems to be the most competitive over all. Ford seems to have done a really top job and not just phoned it in like Nissan with their crap box leaf and half assed battery management.

Even from a branding point of view, using mustang is imo genius and sets the Mach E apart in the desirability stakes.

Personally I’d love to put one in my drive way alongside a 5.0 Ltr GT (my personal dream car).

[strad]

I was under the impression the Tesla pick up truck could tow.?.

Along with available all-wheel drive, the Cybertruck can tow up to 14,000 pounds and has an estimated driving range of 500-plus miles.

[Brake Horse Power]

Yep, that's the strongest. Probably followed by the Rivian R1S and R1T.

I wonder why the towing capacity on a lot of electric vehicles is relatively low and if it has to do with the single gear system resulting in a too low torque?

[hollus]

This has been discussed in the last 40 posts or so, starting last Friday morning.
I buy the explanation of prolonged braking needs as a limiting factor.

[henry]

Update on U.K. sales.

In March, as expected, the sales of vehicles took a dramatic downturn to almost half of last year’s number. Of those sold 4.6% were BEVs. Almost 5 times the market share of last year. It looks like the government incentive may be playing a part. Plug-in hybrid market share is also up, 2.8% from 1.2, even though they are no longer directly subsidised.

The SMMT just publish vehicle count, I would expect that by sales value the market share is somewhat higher given that BEVs are generally more expensive.

Data from https://www.smmt.co.uk/2020/04/uk-new- ... ts-market/

[izzy]

Update on U.K. sales.

In March, as expected, the sales of vehicles took a dramatic downturn to almost half of last year’s number. Of those sold 4.6% were BEVs. Almost 5 times the market share of last year. It looks like the government incentive may be playing a part. Plug-in hybrid market share is also up, 2.8% from 1.2, even though they are no longer directly subsidised.

The SMMT just publish vehicle count, I would expect that by sales value the market share is somewhat higher given that BEVs are generally more expensive.

Data from https://www.smmt.co.uk/2020/04/uk-new- ... ts-market/

It was a story somewhere that now you can actually find a BEV you can buy

4.6% already tho, the only way is up

[Just_a_fan]

Update on U.K. sales.

In March, as expected, the sales of vehicles took a dramatic downturn to almost half of last year’s number. Of those sold 4.6% were BEVs. Almost 5 times the market share of last year. It looks like the government incentive may be playing a part. Plug-in hybrid market share is also up, 2.8% from 1.2, even though they are no longer directly subsidised.

The SMMT just publish vehicle count, I would expect that by sales value the market share is somewhat higher given that BEVs are generally more expensive.

Data from https://www.smmt.co.uk/2020/04/uk-new- ... ts-market/

Perhaps it's because BEVs are more likely to be private purchases so with companies being restricted they aren't replacing company cars, which are likely not BEVs for various reasons.

The report shows that hybrids of various flavours are much more popular than BEVs, with mild hybrid diesels being the biggest gainers.

Year to date, BEVs are 3.8% ( a good figure for a still-niche product), hybrids are 16.8% which isn't far behind diesel's 18.9%. That's an amazing figure - diesel has really fallen out of favour.

I expect to see hybrids take over from diesel fairly quickly and then become the majority vehicle choice in only a few years. BEVs will be very much a minority choice for some time to come.

[J.A.W.]

I'm not sure any EV is rated to tow, other than the Tesla Model X,

Audi e-tron, Jaguar i-Pace, Mercedes-Benz EQC, Nissan e-NV200, Tesla Mod. 3.

Soon to come: Audi e-tron Sportback, Audi Q4 e-tron, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Polestar 2, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Skoda Vision iV, VW ID.4

How many passenger cars do you see towing anything these days?

I'd expect that'd be next on the 'banned list' due to 'safety reg's' &/or subject to extra licensing...

[Andres125sx]

This has been discussed in the last 40 posts or so, starting last Friday morning.
I buy the explanation of prolonged braking needs as a limiting factor.

I don't. What's the reason it should be different to ICEs? I've read nothing which explains the difference, if it really exist

[henry]

I expect to see hybrids take over from diesel fairly quickly and then become the majority vehicle choice in only a few years. BEVs will be very much a minority choice for some time to come.

Absolutely agree. BEVs will no doubt be a minority for years to come. Earlier this year I did a spreadsheet with simple compound growth in BEV sales to get to 100% sales by 2032. BEVs didn’t get past 50% until 2030 by which time the cumulative total of BEVs would be just 12% of the whole fleet (current U.K. fleet about 32million cars). That method would have 2020 market share at 2% so we’re slightly ahead.

My guess is that political measures will bring forward BEV market share but they will still be the minority of vehicles on the road in 2032.

I also expect the CV lockdown to result in a lot of data on the effect of reduced traffic on pollution levels in urban environments. If the levels go down to a level that is felt to be significant one outcome may be more cities reducing the use of ICEs in their environment. An issue for hybrids will then become one of proving they aren’t using the ICE when used in those locations.

[henry]

This has been discussed in the last 40 posts or so, starting last Friday morning.
I buy the explanation of prolonged braking needs as a limiting factor.

I don't. What's the reason it should be different to ICEs? I've read nothing which explains the difference, if it really exist

ICEs can always use engine braking, BEVs can’t guarantee that regen, which is the equivalent, is available at all times. So BEVs need bigger brakes for prolonged braking.

This happens in F1. At many circuits the deployment strategy has to make sure there is available regen capacity for the big stops towards the end of the lap because the rear physical brakes aren’t sized to do that repeatedly.

[Andres125sx]

This has been discussed in the last 40 posts or so, starting last Friday morning.
I buy the explanation of prolonged braking needs as a limiting factor.

I don't. What's the reason it should be different to ICEs? I've read nothing which explains the difference, if it really exist

ICEs can always use engine braking, BEVs can’t guarantee that regen, which is the equivalent, is available at all times. So BEVs need bigger brakes for prolonged braking.

This happens in F1. At many circuits the deployment strategy has to make sure there is available regen capacity for the big stops towards the end of the lap because the rear physical brakes aren’t sized to do that repeatedly.

But modern ICEV have almost zero engine braking for better fuel efficiency, some even less than what regen provide

[henry]

I don't. What's the reason it should be different to ICEs? I've read nothing which explains the difference, if it really exist

ICEs can always use engine braking, BEVs can’t guarantee that regen, which is the equivalent, is available at all times. So BEVs need bigger brakes for prolonged braking.

This happens in F1. At many circuits the deployment strategy has to make sure there is available regen capacity for the big stops towards the end of the lap because the rear physical brakes aren’t sized to do that repeatedly.

But modern ICEV have almost zero engine braking for better fuel efficiency, some even less than what regen provide

I’m not familiar with that, not much experience with modern cars. My last 2 cars, both autos, have downshifted on downhill, zero throttle, and provided engine braking. How does not doing this help fuel efficiency?

If the battery is full regen will be zero.

[izzy]

Perhaps it's because BEVs are more likely to be private purchases so with companies being restricted they aren't replacing company cars, which are likely not BEVs for various reasons.

The report shows that hybrids of various flavours are much more popular than BEVs, with mild hybrid diesels being the biggest gainers.

Year to date, BEVs are 3.8% ( a good figure for a still-niche product), hybrids are 16.8% which isn't far behind diesel's 18.9%. That's an amazing figure - diesel has really fallen out of favour.

I expect to see hybrids take over from diesel fairly quickly and then become the majority vehicle choice in only a few years. BEVs will be very much a minority choice for some time to come.

the new tax laws make company BEV's but not PHEV's zero benefit in kind tax! That's huge. I read they found a lot or even most PHEV drivers don't bother plugging in, with the batteries being so small, so it doesn't save anything just gives incredible figures in the theoretical mpg tests

A big fat PHEV or just ICE is the best thing for towing, with say an 86 litre tank being worth about 350 kwh, compared with 95 for a Tesla Long Range, and towing really exposing the fact that EV's rely on their efficiency for range when you're cruising, then when you load up the energy requirement it just drains them.

But i go the other way with my prediction. Hybrids are fundamentally two systems they're really a stopgap and too heavy. They're just easy and cheap for manufacturers to add a bit of electric to an existing ICE car whereas a full EV needs a massive investment

But BEV's will keep improving and the crossover will happen pretty quickly for a normal everyday car i think, because as soon as you want useful battery range all the ICE is just a lot of dead weight. Yes i know your Range Rover says 40 miles on battery but WLTP often seems to overestimate by 20-25% https://insideevs.com/news/407807/eletr ... ge-tested/ and then you need a very particular lifestyle for it to make sense at 2.5 tonnes. If 200 miles is enough range then already a BEV is the obvious choice, especially if it's a company car

tho your 3-cylinder ICE hybrid is a great example for the next generation of F1 i reckon, with a lot more battery