2018 pre-season testing thread

[LeClerc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yqnl_NvbENY

[Atticus]

haha yeah I saw that too. GA attempt at correcting all the times as if they were on softs and with the same fuel load I believe. so cool, TR has the fastest car

However the problem is that what he has used to calculate the differences between compounds is nothing like the info provided by the teams and Pirelli.

Why, they are providing info on this!?

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Based on Race Sim, here are my predictions.
1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. Renault

Click to Enlarge.
https://s9.postimg.org/iu7z30w4v/race_sim_compared.png

Allison was spot on when he said the following yesterday.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/13471 ... w-a-threat

"I think there's three quick teams and there's no doubt that Red Bull are going to be people that we're going to be fighting with this year," Allison told Sky Sports News. "There's clearly no doubt about that.

Not bad. Autosport.com has ranked the top 4 just like i have.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/feature/80 ... -trackside

[Restomaniac]

haha yeah I saw that too. GA attempt at correcting all the times as if they were on softs and with the same fuel load I believe. so cool, TR has the fastest car

However the problem is that what he has used to calculate the differences between compounds is nothing like the info provided by the teams and Pirelli.

Why, they are providing info on this!?

Yep Pirelli and hints from the teams have HS 1 sec faster than US and all the rest around 0.2 sec drop off (US-SS-S etc).

[Atticus]

However the problem is that what he has used to calculate the differences between compounds is nothing like the info provided by the teams and Pirelli.

Why, they are providing info on this!?

Yep Pirelli and hints from the teams have HS 1 sec faster than US and all the rest around 0.2 sec drop off (US-SS-S etc).

Yeah, I know about that info, it's circulating for about a day now, I was rather thinking about something more robust or concrete from the mouth of Mario Isola, a Paddy Lowe, etc.

For example, the above info was published, among others, AMuS and they are now quoting Pirelli saying that there is 1.0s between HS and SS...

AMuS:

GPS data show Mercedes clearly ahead
Vettel was 1.172 seconds faster than Kevin Magnussen in the HaasF1 customer Ferrari. Nevertheless, there was no cheering in the factory in Maranello. Rather the opposite. Team boss Maurizio Arrivabene and technical director Mattia Binotto stepped out of the Ferrari garage during the lunch break with a worried face.

While Vettel struggled his way through a wall of autograph and selfie hunters into the motorhome, Binotto set off for HaasF1 to find out how much fuel Magnussen was using in his US Ferrari? According to calculations by the competition, there was not much more residual gasoline in the Ferrari tank. If that's true, you'd have to worry in Maranello.

Vettel's best time was put into perspective by scoring it on the softest rubber compound Hypersoft. Magnussen had supersoft tires on his car. According to Pirelli calculations, the two-step difference in rubber is approximately one second. This means that the Ferrari, adjusted for tyres, would have been only a tenth faster than its American counterpart. Too little, if you want to win the world championship against Mercedes

Mercedes officially regards the balance of power as a neck-and-neck race between Red Bull, Ferrari and himself. One does not want to take away the illusion from the fans that it could come to an end of the silver dominance. That would be bad for business.

But the truth looks a little different. Renault's GPS analysis gives Mercedes a clear lead over Red Bull. So at least three tenths. Ferrari is only third and the red cars seem to lose evenly over all corners.

This is also proven by the first Longrun comparisons. Valtteri Bottas was on average almost one second faster than Max Verstappen and Sebastian Vettel in his Grand Prix distance. All other teams are at least 1.6 seconds behind. That would be last year's picture.

Responding to the observations of the competition, Mercedes also had to admit that they are one step ahead. More clearly than last year, but not as dramatic as 2015 and 2016, and at the moment Red Bull is more on the bill than Ferrari.

The reason I'm so into this topic is because aside from engine modes, which we'll never know, and fuel loads, which we can guestimate from the stint length leading up to the FLAPs, this is the most important factor to consider when comparing laptimes. On the F1 Formbook, I'll simply find each driver's FLAP on each compound, account for the fuel effect and apply the differences between the compounds (if the raw data is not consistent with the gaps, which it often isn't) starting from the hardest tyre. (Because teams are more likely to run a full-on flyer on a harder compound than on a softer one due it less likely to be noticed.)

But I'll need as solid info on this as is humanly possible for this analysis to have any kind of value. So I'm kind of hell bent on finding it.

[Restomaniac]

Why, they are providing info on this!?

Yep Pirelli and hints from the teams have HS 1 sec faster than US and all the rest around 0.2 sec drop off (US-SS-S etc).

Yeah, I know about that info, it's circulating for about a day now, I was rather thinking about something more robust or concrete from the mouth of Mario Isola, a Paddy Lowe, etc.

For example, the above info was published, among others, AMuS and they are now quoting Pirelli saying that there is 1.0s between HS and SS...

AMuS:

GPS data show Mercedes clearly ahead
Vettel was 1.172 seconds faster than Kevin Magnussen in the HaasF1 customer Ferrari. Nevertheless, there was no cheering in the factory in Maranello. Rather the opposite. Team boss Maurizio Arrivabene and technical director Mattia Binotto stepped out of the Ferrari garage during the lunch break with a worried face.

While Vettel struggled his way through a wall of autograph and selfie hunters into the motorhome, Binotto set off for HaasF1 to find out how much fuel Magnussen was using in his US Ferrari? According to calculations by the competition, there was not much more residual gasoline in the Ferrari tank. If that's true, you'd have to worry in Maranello.

Vettel's best time was put into perspective by scoring it on the softest rubber compound Hypersoft. Magnussen had supersoft tires on his car. According to Pirelli calculations, the two-step difference in rubber is approximately one second. This means that the Ferrari, adjusted for tyres, would have been only a tenth faster than its American counterpart. Too little, if you want to win the world championship against Mercedes

Mercedes officially regards the balance of power as a neck-and-neck race between Red Bull, Ferrari and himself. One does not want to take away the illusion from the fans that it could come to an end of the silver dominance. That would be bad for business.

But the truth looks a little different. Renault's GPS analysis gives Mercedes a clear lead over Red Bull. So at least three tenths. Ferrari is only third and the red cars seem to lose evenly over all corners.

This is also proven by the first Longrun comparisons. Valtteri Bottas was on average almost one second faster than Max Verstappen and Sebastian Vettel in his Grand Prix distance. All other teams are at least 1.6 seconds behind. That would be last year's picture.

Responding to the observations of the competition, Mercedes also had to admit that they are one step ahead. More clearly than last year, but not as dramatic as 2015 and 2016, and at the moment Red Bull is more on the bill than Ferrari.

The reason I'm so into this topic is because aside from engine modes, which we'll never know, and fuel loads, which we can guestimate from the stint length leading up to the FLAPs, this is the most important factor to consider when comparing laptimes. On the F1 Formbook, I'll simply find each driver's FLAP on each compound, account for the fuel effect and apply the differences between the compounds (if the raw data is not consistent with the gaps, which it often isn't) starting from the hardest tyre. (Because teams are more likely to run a full-on flyer on a harder compound than on a softer one due it less likely to be noticed.)

But I'll need as solid info on this as is humanly possible for this analysis to have any kind of value. So I'm kind of hell bent on finding it.

TBH I think you will struggle to get better info then from the makers of the tyres themselves.

[Atticus]

Yep Pirelli and hints from the teams have HS 1 sec faster than US and all the rest around 0.2 sec drop off (US-SS-S etc).

Yeah, I know about that info, it's circulating for about a day now, I was rather thinking about something more robust or concrete from the mouth of Mario Isola, a Paddy Lowe, etc.

For example, the above info was published, among others, AMuS and they are now quoting Pirelli saying that there is 1.0s between HS and SS...

AMuS:

The reason I'm so into this topic is because aside from engine modes, which we'll never know, and fuel loads, which we can guestimate from the stint length leading up to the FLAPs, this is the most important factor to consider when comparing laptimes. On the F1 Formbook, I'll simply find each driver's FLAP on each compound, account for the fuel effect and apply the differences between the compounds (if the raw data is not consistent with the gaps, which it often isn't) starting from the hardest tyre. (Because teams are more likely to run a full-on flyer on a harder compound than on a softer one due it less likely to be noticed.)

But I'll need as solid info on this as is humanly possible for this analysis to have any kind of value. So I'm kind of hell bent on finding it.

TBH I think you will struggle to get better info then from the makers of the tyres themselves.

I agree. I'm duly taking the 1.0s difference between HS and SS for granted, although that's not very precise for the HS-US and US-SS gaps, not to mention SS up.

In any case, thank you for the info and your thoughts - I'll keep my eyes open.

[Restomaniac]

Yeah, I know about that info, it's circulating for about a day now, I was rather thinking about something more robust or concrete from the mouth of Mario Isola, a Paddy Lowe, etc.

For example, the above info was published, among others, AMuS and they are now quoting Pirelli saying that there is 1.0s between HS and SS...




The reason I'm so into this topic is because aside from engine modes, which we'll never know, and fuel loads, which we can guestimate from the stint length leading up to the FLAPs, this is the most important factor to consider when comparing laptimes. On the F1 Formbook, I'll simply find each driver's FLAP on each compound, account for the fuel effect and apply the differences between the compounds (if the raw data is not consistent with the gaps, which it often isn't) starting from the hardest tyre. (Because teams are more likely to run a full-on flyer on a harder compound than on a softer one due it less likely to be noticed.)

But I'll need as solid info on this as is humanly possible for this analysis to have any kind of value. So I'm kind of hell bent on finding it.

TBH I think you will struggle to get better info then from the makers of the tyres themselves.

I agree. I'm duly taking the 1.0s difference between HS and SS for granted, although that's not very precise for the HS-US and US-SS gaps, not to mention SS up.

In any case, thank you for the info and your thoughts - I'll keep my eyes open.

Enjoy the hunt

[Atticus]

TBH I think you will struggle to get better info then from the makers of the tyres themselves.

I agree. I'm duly taking the 1.0s difference between HS and SS for granted, although that's not very precise for the HS-US and US-SS gaps, not to mention SS up.

In any case, thank you for the info and your thoughts - I'll keep my eyes open.

Enjoy the hunt

Thank you.

[Carlo_Carrera]

Based on Race Sim, here are my predictions.
1. Mercedes
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. Renault

Click to Enlarge.
https://s9.postimg.org/iu7z30w4v/race_sim_compared.png

Allison was spot on when he said the following yesterday.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/13471 ... w-a-threat

"I think there's three quick teams and there's no doubt that Red Bull are going to be people that we're going to be fighting with this year," Allison told Sky Sports News. "There's clearly no doubt about that.

Not bad. Autosport.com has ranked the top 4 just like i have.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/feature/80 ... -trackside

Here is what someone who has actually seen the GPS data has to say.

"We know that Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari are going to be ahead and fighting for the win in Australia."

https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/17222

There is nothing between the top three.

And Toro Rosso/Honda might be fighting for best of the rest.

[DiogoBrand]

If I were an engine manufacturer, I would kill myself before giving a piston to Redbull or Mclaren...

Good thing you are not one because you can't do business based on your feelings.

I think that is smart thinking, rather than doing business based on feelings. We saw how they treat engine manufacturers

You probably wouldn't have that problem if the engine you made was any good.

[iotar__]

I agree. I'm duly taking the 1.0s difference between HS and SS for granted, although that's not very precise for the HS-US and US-SS gaps, not to mention SS up.

- isn't it 0,9?
- tyres are the same but cars, track conditions, temperatures are not
- As for the quality of predictions, they have gps, fuel estimations and some unknown factors: engine modes etc.
- There may be some reshuffling but I doubt dramatic order changes. No one near top three and as it looks now Merc, RB, Ferrari. If it's Ferrari or RB slightly ahead it would be a surprise but not a shock, if it's Merc clearly no surprise at all.

[Mamba]

Just dawned my mind -> HAAS is running nearly all the parts they can that can be bought from Ferrari. So that is suspension, engine and gearbox and perhaps some other stuff we/I don't know about. Surely a HAAS going fast is good news then? The factory team does not need/want to show their hand but HAAS may be less keen to hide themselves... Just a two days ago I was reading that Ferrari seem calm and focused on doing their own thing and not doing what the others are. Now yesterday suddenly everyone at Ferrari seem to be worried...

I am not trying to say Ferrari are miles ahead or behind, but I would just like people - especially Amus to think about what they are writing. Everybody is holding their cards close. Some more than others (we can only guess who is hiding more).
I'll repeat what I posted earlier. It is testing guys! Soon we will know the facts!

MAMBA

[Moose]

Hamilton said in his press conference today they haven't taken the fuel out of the car yet. To me at least, it sounded very much like "we know very well that we can beat Ferrari's lap if we take the fuel out".

[f1316]

I thought it was interesting that I read different articles , quoting the same verbatim quotes from Vettel, but spun completely differently,

Some articles made what he said sound like an admission of still needing to find some performance, others made him sound very calm and happy with th car.

The autosport ranking based on trackside observation is particularly ridiculous: all the comments it relates to were on the live feed and at the time of the ‘observations’, Ferrari and Red Bull were in race sims but Mercedes were not. So things like the Ferrari bottoming out are a consequence of the heavier fuel load - and something we often see on race weekend - not an inherent car characteristic.

Basically these people don’t half write some sensationalist rubbish!