Mine is probably going to be too long to bother reading, but what the heck; I'll run through each of the teams and explain why... quiet time of year.
1. Mercedes
No real surprises here; Considering how early they stopped developing the W11 in the season, I'm sure they are well on their way with W12, which again will springboard their assault for 2022. Consistency is Mercedes' weapon here, enabling themselves to keep doing what they're doing and with Hamilton (more than likely) remaining at the team, cannot really see them being toppled next year. In saying that, I reckon they'll be put under more consistent pressure now by...
2. Red Bull
Regardless of who was going to drive for the team in 2021, I think Red Bull will close the gap to Mercedes a bit. The Honda unit looks as if it is more than a match for the rest of the Power Unit suppliers on the grid so no need for worries there. Despite the rule changes, Red Bull will work to make the car a bit less twitchy... won't matter as much for Max who seems to be able to extract everything out of the car anyway, but should greatly assist Perez. Speaking of which, if Sergio can get up to speed relatively quickly in the car ahead of the season (or at least after the first couple of races) and he can utilise he's great ability of managing tyres/race pace... then Red Bull can start playing around with the strategy to throw Mercedes under pressure. The Perez signing has effectively given them another dice to roll during the races, where they originally only had the one (in Max) to utilise... pardon the gambling terms! I'm fairly confident in saying Red Bull will win a few races in 2021, probably all with Max. I argue they've got the best pairing on the grid.
3. Ferrari
Without trying to be too biased, I'm a Tifosi... so hopefully this one is accurate! Again, with such a short amount of time, this will also depend on how quick Sainz can get to grips with new machinery given the small amount of testing available. Regarding Charles, I have no doubt in his speed and getting a lot out of the car... hoping another season under his belt will iron out some of those mistakes he has made. The big factor for me placing them 3rd is their expected new Power Unit for 2021; If they've managed to claw back a decent junk of performance and should their modifications at the rear of the car that they're expected to use their tokens on bare fruit, I'm expecting that alone will yield them a massive increase in pace. Reliability however is a question mark, given how new the concept is according to a mixture of sauces and speculation, but I'm hopeful they can challenge Red Bull and might snag a win with a bit of luck with Charles.
4. McLaren
Whilst McLaren did manage to finish 3rd last year, I think they'll have a bit of a transition with the Mercedes Power Unit coming to them and no doubt will be dedicating a lot more resources to better integrate the package into their 2022 machine with all the new rules coming into place. In saying that, I reckon we'll see a few podiums from the likes of Daniel Ricciardo, who if his Renault season this year is anything to go buy, looks to be in peak form. In saying that, I reckon the Renault Power Unit they were using wasn't all that bad at all, seeing as Renault themselves seemed to be very competitive at a fair few of the circuits involving high-speed straights so power didn't seem to be lacking. Regardless, McLaren also have the advantage of being able to modify the car considerably more than all the other teams so that can also enable them to iron out any issues the previous car might've had when modifying the chassis to fit the Mercedes bits. I think it'll be neck and neck with Ferrari and them next year, which will be nice to witness going back to the battles of the past, albeit maybe not for the wins as such.
5. Aston Martin
This one was the hardest to try and slot, because for 2 main reasons. Firstly, it'll depend on how much they can continue to utilise their current package of the W10 concept and evolve it further. In saying that, it could give them an opportunity to further enhance it now they've got a solid understanding of how it all works. I do think they have been flattered a little bit with some of their results due to Perez being able to manage the tyres and still have great speed (not to take anything away from Stroll, who also stepped up a considerable amount this year) which gave them some great and well deserved results... which brings me to my next point; Vettel. This is where it'll either be a make or break for me; IF he manages to regain his so called 'mojo' or gets the support (and car) he needs to perform and its a case of Vintage Vettel, then I reckon he'll be causing a LOT of trouble for Ferrari (LOL), Mclaren and possibly Red Bull. I reckon he is still capable of incredible speed and when everything is working for him, he is easily one of the top drivers on the grid. In saying that, it is a major IF considering the season he has just had at Ferrari. Whether that was himself not being motivated, Ferrari not supporting him (take that as you will) or whatever it is, he underperformed the most out of ANY of the drivers on the current grid in my opinion. Comparing that to Charles, especially considering how close they were in 2019, theres a lot of questions regarding what he'll be like next season. For me, I hope its a return to former glory and he can run for the podiums when the chances arise.
6. Alpine
If Aston Martin was the hardest, Rena... I mean, Alpine was next! I could be very wrong about this, as I can honestly see Alonso coming back and doing what he does best; Wringing the neck out of whatever he is given to drive. The guy could be tasked to drive a ride-on lawn mower and still be able to get it into Q2 I reckon. I have no doubt in his ability and he will be quick. He is incredibly versatile and given the chance, he'll score a podium or 2 I reckon. I do hope the team don't neglect Ocon too much; Towards seasons end this year, he was running a fair bit closer to Daniel compared to the start so hope he can do the same with Alonso, but there'll be a lot of pressure on him no doubt; Between Hamilton, Verstappen and Alonso, those are the big 3 I'd be fearful teaming up against, purely for their relentless speed and consistency. I'm not expecting any major surprises with the car, though potentially they might be able to develop their Power Unit even more so to their liking now they no longer have to supply any other teams on the grid. It may be a drawback having less data to run with, but if it is all for the one package then there is less compromises to be made and more resource can be put forward to perfecting it all for themselves.
7. Alfa Romeo
Might be a bit of a surprise seeing them a bit higher, but this also comes down to the expected gains from the Ferrari Power Unit the team will have at their disposal. I really think them and Haas were heavily compromised this year to the power defect they had to endure due to Ferraris... 'actions'? So they could never really get the car into a position that would yield them decent points. I think Kimi is a bit long in the tooth now, though he still had some solid moments during the season, like he's incredibly start in Portugal. I think Giovinazzi was beginning to outpace Kimi towards seasons end, but I'm still quite surprised he has kept his seat... was thinking it would've gone to Mick Schumacher instead but regardless, with more power I see Alfa Romeo being able to find themselves in the points more often... reliability pending!
8. Alpha Tauri
Nothing too surprising here either in my view; Gasly is going to be quick and score points consistently. The car has solid speed and the team environment seems to be one of the best on the grid, so they'll be quick. I'm not expecting them to score as many points in comparison to this season, as I'm not expecting another win from them anytime soon, but they'll be there to mix things up. Looking forward to seeing how Tsunoda gets on next season and welcoming a Japanese driver back on the grid.
9. Haas
Like Alfa Romeo, I reckon a bit of their struggles have come from the lacking of thrust from the Ferrari Power Unit so they should claw some of that performance back. In saying that, the car itself hasn't been an easy one to drive according to outgoing Grosjean and Magnussen so I don't see them making much progress. Maybe a few points in by seasons end, but I feel they'll be dedicating all their time and resources for the 2022 car... and rightly so. I'm looking very much forward to seeing how Mick performs, though still somewhat displeased with Mazepins recent actions. We'll see how they go, but very much a transition year for the team I feel.
10. Williams
Despite the low ranking, I think George will score points for the first time next season (in a Williams instead of a Mercedes that is!). I see the team in a similar position to Haas in trying to get through the year and utilising the maximum allowed Wind Tunnel testing time compared to the other teams (due to their finishing position this year) and throwing everything behind 2022. Hoping Latifi can step up his game a bit and run a bit closer to George, though again I'm not really expecting miracles from them.
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To conclude, despite the rankings, I see everyone being incredibly close next season. Mercedes should still hold a 0.2-0.5 advantage over Red Bull on average, but nothing that cannot be overhauled by them should they manage to nail the strategy or if they can pressure them into a mistake. Ferrari I expect to be best of the rest in 3rd, but between them and McLaren, Aston Martin, Alpine, Alfa Romeo and Alpha Tauri... if 2020 was incredibly tight this year for the midfield, I reckon 2021 will be closer again... and for me, that is where a lot of the entrainment will come from! The potential of a resurgent Ferrari with Sainz onboard, a powered-up and on the rise McLaren with Ricciardo in top form, the prospect (and hope) of Vintage Vettel in fresh (green!) colours in a car and team that'll suit him, the return of Alonso in a much more competitive machine, Alfa Romeo hopefully gaining some pace with more power, a welcomed addition of a Japanese rookie... and a legendary name in the form of Schumacher appearing on the grid, there is a lot to be excited about in my view! I hope the world situation regarding the Pandemic eases in the coming months so we all can enjoy as full of calendar as possible and all the teams have a fighting chance with minimal disruption... and whilst a lot of effort will be diverted to the massive rule changes of 2022, 2021 has the potential to be a season we'll remember just as much, if not more so than this one.
Honestly, cannot wait any longer! Wish they had more testing ahead of the season so we could see the teams and drivers in action, particularly the rookies and the ones switching teams... a tad unfair on them in my view.
