Jolle wrote:I think Ric on SS for the race is going to cost him. Now he's going to be on the slowest rubber for ⅔ of the race (if Mercedes can keep their cars running)
If they have a clean start with 1 RIC, 2 and 3 the Merc boys, they just have to wait 15-20 laps until they can switch to SS. Then, with fresh rubber they can close the gap to RIC, who, when on US's will be behind them.
I think so too (that SS might cost him). But there's something to consider when the Merc boys pit and that is, depending on how bunched up the field is, they will be in traffic, so even after pitting, they might not be able to close the gap to Ricciardo.
Historically, Monaco was somewhat predictable because the fastest car was on pole, then drove on into the distance and usually also had better tire wear. Meaning that they pitted give or take at the same time like most within the top 10 and thus found themselves in clean air once they pitted (or still in the lead). This year will be different, because we have a car on slower tires on pole against a stack of cars on ultra softs behind. Track position is key, so I am assuming they will all be bunched up behind Ricciardo (bunched up = moderate gap of 1 to 2 seconds) and they will all be waiting for a window of clean air to pit. If I was RedBull and Ricciardo, I might try to bunch up the field a bit more to make certain that any team that will pit will end up in traffic and then held up. It's going to be fascinating to watch.
Basically, the aim will be to save tires in the beginning and limit the pace of the cars behind. Then when the Merc boys pit, to up the pace to whatever is possible to keep the gap, worst case maintain it or increase it. Then pit when you feel comfortable. If Merc gets into clean air and pits earlier, the game is over for Ricciardo IMO.
For Mercedes, they might split strategies. Meaning pit Hamilton early and Rosberg late. Or the other way around and see if RedBull reacts.
