2011 WDC and WCC odds

[raymondu999]

With all due respect to your methods though WB. the real probabilities are probably less than the betting odds let out. If for gambling poo sizel A (how many people bet on Driver X), and betting odd B for any particular one,

If A = 1/B, then the expected return would be 0 for the booki.

A has to be greater than 1/B and that would skew things slightly than an outright linear comparison. However if BetFair really does base its odds on betting money then that would probably decrease the skew to as little as possible.

[WhiteBlue]

If I remember right you have to pay a fee from your winning which is not shown in the computerized odds. But people who bet know that.

[raymondu999]

Ok that I didn't know. I just know I put about 100 quid on Seb at the start of last year and won quite a bit. That didn't even matter to me in light of his championship victory

[JohnsonsEvilTwin]

Evens on Red Bull to be constructors champs looks a no brainer.

Mulling putting £500 on that....

[WhiteBlue]

Update after the first race



Markets rise to 679 k€ for WDC and 48k€ for WCC. Vettel and Red Bull are massive favourites.



Hamilton and Alonso swap places after the first race. Rosberg under rated as he consistently beats Schumacher.



McLaren make massive progress as expected after dropping fancy exhausts.



Not much info yet. But that will change

[raymondu999]

Wow those are very short odds for Vettel.

[raymondu999]

Wow. Just looking around the odds on oddschecker, Vettel has dropped below a 1 in terms of betting odds I've never seen that before. WB? http://www.oddschecker.com/motor-sport/ ... ampionship

[WhiteBlue]

Here we go for the update after the Malaysian race.



Vettel opens quite a gap to the other runners with Button, Hamilton, Webber and Alonso in the group of possible challengers. Massa, Heidfeld and Petrov are probably not out of the race as well. The rest in my view don't have goood enough results to go to the top this year.



Match odds look bad for Massa and Webber both with just 10% of the chance of their respective leaders.



Heidfeld makes some progress in the odds by merit of a strong drive in Malaysia. Vettel and Hamilton improve their odds while Alonso and Webber are the loosers.



There is not much change in the top four cars, but Sauber manage to get nice points on the board by Kobayashi. Merc are still disappointing.



Renault don't profit in the odds from their good results so far, which does not seem very sensible. Merc certainly have missed the boat this season and have little chance to catch them quickly in my view.

[horse]

Renault don't profit in the odds from their good results so far, which does not seem very sensible. Merc certainly have missed the boat this season and have little chance to catch them quickly in my view.

Part of this must be because the odds are looking for an outright winner. At the moment the points situation strongly favours Red Bull and it seems highly unlikely that Renault would win it. It would be interesting to see if you could get a bet on them finishing in the top three teams, certainly.

[WhiteBlue]

My customary odds review after the Chinese GP:



Hamilton takes a big jump upwards in the WDC table and we can perhaps close the group of pretenders behind Massa. Let's have a look at the odds first before coming to conclusions.



In the odds data table everything looks like the two championships will be contested between Red Bull and McLaren. The match odds are very clear. Except for Heidfeld the #1 driver in the team clearly dominates the #2.




In the WDC odds Hamilton and Webber are making nice progress. Alonso keeps falling behind the top group of Vettel and Hamilton with the lowish results.



In the constructors table Mercedes managed to score in China and take the place it has been expected to take for some time. Renault still lead them in the table. Ferrari again disappointing, so far scoring only half the points of the leader. At this rate their WCC challenge is not sustainable.



This is also expressed in the car odds. Ferrari falling away and Merc practically out of the game. In the view of the betting money Merc should overtake Renault soon.

[WhiteBlue]

Review after the Turkish GP



Vettel can substantially increase the gap to all the other runners and Webber makes up one place in the drivers table. Alonso on P5 is probably the last of the drivers who can realistically win the WDC.



In the odds tables Red Bull and Vettel domination becomes even stronger. The team mate matches do not change substantially. The markets keep growing.



The WDC looks like a four horse race realistically if you go by the odds. Behind Webber they fall off the scale and there is no point showing drivers with odds over twenty.



In the team tables there is no significant change as Ferrari defend their P3 with a good race pace. After qualifying they had looked a lot worse than after the race.



The constructor odds seem to predict a two horse race of McLaren vs Red Bull. Ferrari have Alonso who is superb in an inferior car but Massa is not pulling his full weight.

[bhall]

What do these odds mean?

[Caito]

The odds say to which team/driver is tha people betting. Or just people' expectations, if I may.

If a lot of people bet on Vettel, he will pay little money.


No one can know how much people's expectations match the reality as this is a lotery in itself.

[TURU]

What do these odds mean?

Nothing. Nothing relevant to F1technical - that's for sure.
Maybe, just maybe they would be of some relevance on a psychology forum.

[Mr Alcatraz]

Great stuff WB
Well appreciated over here dude
As a reformed Vegas Sports book Junkie
It’s an interesting “look but don’t touch” subject!