Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
User avatar
Juzh
161
Joined: 06 Oct 2012, 08:45

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

Fulcrum wrote:Anyone managing to lap the circuit in 77.500 - 78.000 is probably driving in the vicinity of Alonso's 2006 Pole time.
You're giving alonso's laptime too much credit. Webber's 2010 pole lap of 1:19.9 was neck and neck with alonso's pole lap from 2006 up trough the first 2 sectors, thus any lap equalling 80s will be in the vicinity of alonso's pole.

Fulcrum
Fulcrum
15
Joined: 25 Aug 2014, 18:05

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

Firstly, Alonso having set the lap is not my focus. Somebody else referenced his lap. It could have been anyone setting the lap. I was simply stating the differentials we've observed in testing thus far and an estimate of what would need to be achieved to produce a similar lap under the current track configuration with these cars.

Webber's laps may very well have been in the vicinity of Alonso's, I don't have the data. If the splits were similar he probably was driving an equivalent speed. So let's expand the comparison and include him if necessary.

The current specification of cars have far higher levels of mechanical grip, they don't lose 6 seconds through the last sector like they used to; already this gap is closer to 4 seconds. My suggesting a 77.500 - 78.000 as an equivalent laptime takes this into account.

The fastest combined laptime on day 2 was 80.637 - 23.165, 29.979, 27.493; the first two sectors being a full 0.977 slower than the 2006 Pole time.

On day 3 they managed a combined 79.548 - 23.074, 29.713, 26.761; the lap was 1.089 seconds faster overall, but only 0.357 faster through the first two sectors, still 0.620 seconds slower than the 2006 time.

If you assume the same rate of improvement across the sectors as times get faster, lap times would need to be 0.357/0.620*1.089 = 1.891 seconds faster; i.e. a 77.657 being equivalent to the 2006 lap.

I fully expect the ratio of sector improvement to alter slightly as engine maps become more aggressive, but I haven't factored in the thermal differences between testing and race day either.

Bottom line(s):

- I'm not trying to credit Alonso - or anyone else.
- I'm not trying to discredit the current Formula.
- I simply wanted to assess lap time equivalence with the information we have available, even if this exercise is largely irrelevant.

Wass85
Wass85
3
Joined: 01 Mar 2017, 22:11

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

Fulcrum wrote:Firstly, Alonso having set the lap is not my focus. Somebody else referenced his lap. It could have been anyone setting the lap. I was simply stating the differentials we've observed in testing thus far and an estimate of what would need to be achieved to produce a similar lap under the current track configuration with these cars.

Webber's laps may very well have been in the vicinity of Alonso's, I don't have the data. If the splits were similar he probably was driving an equivalent speed. So let's expand the comparison and include him if necessary.

The current specification of cars have far higher levels of mechanical grip, they don't lose 6 seconds through the last sector like they used to; already this gap is closer to 4 seconds. My suggesting a 77.500 - 78.000 as an equivalent laptime takes this into account.

The fastest combined laptime on day 2 was 80.637 - 23.165, 29.979, 27.493; the first two sectors being a full 0.977 slower than the 2006 Pole time.

On day 3 they managed a combined 79.548 - 23.074, 29.713, 26.761; the lap was 1.089 seconds faster overall, but only 0.357 faster through the first two sectors, still 0.620 seconds slower than the 2006 time.

If you assume the same rate of improvement across the sectors as times get faster, lap times would need to be 0.357/0.620*1.089 = 1.891 seconds faster; i.e. a 77.657 being equivalent to the 2006 lap.

I fully expect the ratio of sector improvement to alter slightly as engine maps become more aggressive, but I haven't factored in the thermal differences between testing and race day either.

Bottom line(s):

- I'm not trying to credit Alonso - or anyone else.
- I'm not trying to discredit the current Formula.
- I simply wanted to assess lap time equivalence with the information we have available, even if this exercise is largely irrelevant.
Do you think these cars would beat the 2004-2005 cars around the circuit pre-2008 before they put the chicane there?

Fulcrum
Fulcrum
15
Joined: 25 Aug 2014, 18:05

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

Wass85 wrote:
Fulcrum wrote:Firstly, Alonso having set the lap is not my focus. Somebody else referenced his lap. It could have been anyone setting the lap. I was simply stating the differentials we've observed in testing thus far and an estimate of what would need to be achieved to produce a similar lap under the current track configuration with these cars.

Webber's laps may very well have been in the vicinity of Alonso's, I don't have the data. If the splits were similar he probably was driving an equivalent speed. So let's expand the comparison and include him if necessary.

The current specification of cars have far higher levels of mechanical grip, they don't lose 6 seconds through the last sector like they used to; already this gap is closer to 4 seconds. My suggesting a 77.500 - 78.000 as an equivalent laptime takes this into account.

The fastest combined laptime on day 2 was 80.637 - 23.165, 29.979, 27.493; the first two sectors being a full 0.977 slower than the 2006 Pole time.

On day 3 they managed a combined 79.548 - 23.074, 29.713, 26.761; the lap was 1.089 seconds faster overall, but only 0.357 faster through the first two sectors, still 0.620 seconds slower than the 2006 time.

If you assume the same rate of improvement across the sectors as times get faster, lap times would need to be 0.357/0.620*1.089 = 1.891 seconds faster; i.e. a 77.657 being equivalent to the 2006 lap.

I fully expect the ratio of sector improvement to alter slightly as engine maps become more aggressive, but I haven't factored in the thermal differences between testing and race day either.

Bottom line(s):

- I'm not trying to credit Alonso - or anyone else.
- I'm not trying to discredit the current Formula.
- I simply wanted to assess lap time equivalence with the information we have available, even if this exercise is largely irrelevant.
Do you think these cars would beat the 2004-2005 cars around the circuit pre-2008 before they put the chicane there?
Ralf Schumacher managed a 74.280 in Q4 in 2005, and that on grooved, bulletproof tyres. I don't think this year's cars are going to match that level of performance, primarily because of their significant weight differential.

Wass85
Wass85
3
Joined: 01 Mar 2017, 22:11

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

Fulcrum wrote:
Wass85 wrote:
Fulcrum wrote:Firstly, Alonso having set the lap is not my focus. Somebody else referenced his lap. It could have been anyone setting the lap. I was simply stating the differentials we've observed in testing thus far and an estimate of what would need to be achieved to produce a similar lap under the current track configuration with these cars.

Webber's laps may very well have been in the vicinity of Alonso's, I don't have the data. If the splits were similar he probably was driving an equivalent speed. So let's expand the comparison and include him if necessary.

The current specification of cars have far higher levels of mechanical grip, they don't lose 6 seconds through the last sector like they used to; already this gap is closer to 4 seconds. My suggesting a 77.500 - 78.000 as an equivalent laptime takes this into account.

The fastest combined laptime on day 2 was 80.637 - 23.165, 29.979, 27.493; the first two sectors being a full 0.977 slower than the 2006 Pole time.

On day 3 they managed a combined 79.548 - 23.074, 29.713, 26.761; the lap was 1.089 seconds faster overall, but only 0.357 faster through the first two sectors, still 0.620 seconds slower than the 2006 time.

If you assume the same rate of improvement across the sectors as times get faster, lap times would need to be 0.357/0.620*1.089 = 1.891 seconds faster; i.e. a 77.657 being equivalent to the 2006 lap.

I fully expect the ratio of sector improvement to alter slightly as engine maps become more aggressive, but I haven't factored in the thermal differences between testing and race day either.

Bottom line(s):

- I'm not trying to credit Alonso - or anyone else.
- I'm not trying to discredit the current Formula.
- I simply wanted to assess lap time equivalence with the information we have available, even if this exercise is largely irrelevant.
Do you think these cars would beat the 2004-2005 cars around the circuit pre-2008 before they put the chicane there?
Ralf Schumacher managed a 74.280 in Q4 in 2005, and that on grooved, bulletproof tyres. I don't think this year's cars are going to match that level of performance, primarily because of their significant weight differential.
Don't forget though that was before the chicane was introduced.

Fulcrum
Fulcrum
15
Joined: 25 Aug 2014, 18:05

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

Wass85 wrote:
Fulcrum wrote:
Wass85 wrote:
Do you think these cars would beat the 2004-2005 cars around the circuit pre-2008 before they put the chicane there?
Ralf Schumacher managed a 74.280 in Q4 in 2005, and that on grooved, bulletproof tyres. I don't think this year's cars are going to match that level of performance, primarily because of their significant weight differential.
Don't forget though that was before the chicane was introduced.
I am aware of that. My entire line of thought has been to assess a comparable lap time from the current circuit map to the pre-chicane era.

User avatar
hollus
Moderator
Joined: 29 Mar 2009, 01:21
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

Fulcrum wrote:The sector times of the Alonso 2006 Pole lap were:

22.440, 29.727, 22.481 - 74.648

The best sector times from Day 3 of the first test were:

23.074, 29.713, 26.761 - 79.548

Comparing the times up to the end of Sector 2 we have:

52.167 (2006) vs. 52.787 (2017 W1)

...

Anyone managing to lap the circuit in 77.500 - 78.000 is probably driving in the vicinity of Alonso's 2006 Pole time.
Wass85 wrote:I wonder how they compared to the 2005 cars over the first two sectors?
Are you aware that you can google yourself?

Fastest Q lap was from Trulli, 1:14.975 on saturday, on that 2 lap quali format.
22.442, 29.906, 22.447.
Rivals, not enemies.

User avatar
FrukostScones
162
Joined: 25 May 2010, 17:41
Location: European Union

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

FrukostScones wrote:1.18.9
maybe I was too conservative.. :mrgreen: #-o

AMUS.
https://translate.google.com/translate? ... t=&act=url

Pirelli predicts 1.18.000
Mercedes more cautious (or sandbag ballasted) and can imagine something between 1.18.5 and 1.18.7
(intersting would be what they could do for real 8) )
Friday will be quite hot 25 C according to forecasts
http://www.myweather2.com/Motor-Racing/ ... ecast.aspx
so track tarmac should be good for glory laps.
Finishing races is important, but racing is more important.

Wass85
Wass85
3
Joined: 01 Mar 2017, 22:11

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

Alonso believes Mercedes could do a low 1:17. If that's the case then wow!!!

User avatar
godlameroso
309
Joined: 16 Jan 2010, 21:27
Location: Miami FL

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

No one has even gotten close to 1:18 yet, so I don't think 1:17's are possible at this test.
Saishū kōnā

Wass85
Wass85
3
Joined: 01 Mar 2017, 22:11

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

We are getting close to the 1:18's but still around a second slower than the quickest ever time around here. 2 days to go, can it be beat?

User avatar
godlameroso
309
Joined: 16 Jan 2010, 21:27
Location: Miami FL

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

Nah, we'll see mid 18's at best, if at all.
Saishū kōnā

User avatar
etusch
131
Joined: 22 Feb 2009, 23:09
Location: Turkey

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

I think, and I believe every F1 fun think that end of the tomorrow testing ferrari and merc set their fastest lap times.
İf ferrari use u.s. tyre it May be 1.18.+++
My prediction ; Kimi Raikkonen 1.18.290

Wass85
Wass85
3
Joined: 01 Mar 2017, 22:11

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

I want to see this record of Massa's smashed tomorrow if the teams have the speed.

gold333
gold333
7
Joined: 16 May 2011, 02:59

Re: Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

Post

Does anyone know of a list of circuits that have changed the least since the 80's until today?

Off the top of my head:

Hungaroring
Monaco
Canada
Magny Cours
Suzuka
Brazil
Jerez

Not in any particular order. I think Brazil changed the least though. Would be awesome to get an all time near exact comparison of all qualifying times from every year and pick out the fastest F1 year ever.
F1 car width now 2.0m (same as 1993-1997). Lets go crazy and bring the 2.2m cars back (<1992).