Following his sensational lap in Saturday's qualifying which saw Charles Leclerc claim a shock pole position for Ferrari, the Monegasque endured a heartbreaking result at the Hungarian Grand Prix despite his impressive pace during his first two stints of the race. F1Technical's senior writer Balazs Szabo delivers his latest analysis in his column branded as F1MATHS.
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I've seen some journalists trying to push the narrative is 2nd fastest this year, which is a massive lie.
In fact, by removing McLaren completely from the championship, Ferrari would have only 4 races out of 16. Moreover, Leclerc has less top 5 results than both Max and Russell.
Ferrari is P2 in the WCC only because Hamilton is performing significantly better than Tsunoda and Antonelli.
I think Leclerc will be in the hunt for pole in Baku - if he could do it when down on power in 2021, he can do it in 2025 in a car that was close to pole in terms of laptime in both Monaco and Monza (where Baku is something of a mixture) and took pole in Hungary. It's not a good all-rounder of a car, but this track ought to limit some of the problems while capturing some of the strengths (curb-riding, Leclerc's ability in short corners etc).
Winning will be another story. Leclerc's pace in the first half of Hungary gives me a modicum of hope but everything would need to be perfect and remains to be seen if they can keep the plank from wearing over the race distance while still optimising the one-lap pace. Still, I think this will be the best change of a win for the rest of the year (slightly ahead of Singapore and then Vegas).