2025 Monaco Grand Prix - Monte Carlo, May 23 - 25

[basti313]

I see a chance for a out side bet to roll the dice. For instance, Williams have a nice buffer so may be worth taking a chance and going for it big time, or Sauber Alpine who have a do or die chance to get some points to cover next years travel, even if it means 2 pitstops in the first few laps, but Aston are the prime suspects of playing a flanker as they have the team and resources to try the unusual. But with my unerring judgement ( ? ) it is obviously going to be the Racing Bulls who play a trump hand.

So please explain:
How is this Sauber pitting in the first two laps faster than any other car, top 10, ahead if it is on similar aged tires?

These whole stories are just based on anyone going slow. But no one will go slow, they will drive a 2-stop race, the faster the better.

What I mean is I do not have a clue. Each option has good and bad so who does what is not really clear. The pitting early, I mean get all the tyre changes done while the team mate holds up as much of the field as possible then the car would have a clear run, moving up the order as all the other cars make their pitstops while the car that has done all the tyre swaps just keeps on in what is actually the same gap, but gaining position as the others rejoin behind them

No top 10 teammate will hold up the field and screw himself.

And I disagree that there is no option without bad. There is nothing bad on going fast for any car in the top10. Just the usual strategy, produce gaps, produce a safe distance to the one behind to avoid the undercut. And you can only profit from a SC if you generate gaps behind you.

The mandatory 2 stopper took away the options going slow to save tires for a one stop. They need to plan around optimal pace for a 2 stopper. Anything too slow will just finish them lower.

[AR3-GP]

No top 10 teammate will hold up the field and screw himself.

Mclaren ran this strategy in 2019. Safety car around lap 15 bunched up the field. Ricciardo and Magnussen were running 5th and 6th, but stopped under the safetycar and dropped back. Sainz (Mcl) stayed out and got promoted from P8 to P6 but still needed to stop. Mclaren told Norris (P10) to back up the pack (destroying race of RIC/MAG and others) until Sainz had a 20 second window to pit and come out again in 6th place.

Lap 15 (just after safety car):


Lap 27 (NOR opened the gap for SAI to pit):




Any of Ferrari/Mercedes/Williams/Alpine/Sauber etc will do it if they could win (Mercedes/Ferrari/Williams), or if they could get big points (Sauber, Alpine). Red Bull will use Tsunoda if they can. Mclaren cannot stop until they have a pitstop gap to Tsunoda or their race is finished.

[basti313]

No top 10 teammate will hold up the field and screw himself.

Mclaren ran this strategy in 2019.

Bad example. Norris was pitstop corrected not in top 10.

Any of Ferrari/Mercedes/Williams/Alpine/Sauber etc will do it if they could win (Mercedes/Ferrari/Williams)

How does Williams get a car on P1 and two cars into the pitstop window of McLaren or RedBull?
Again, it would mean you need to have both cars at least in top 10. Looking at gaps on paced races, the minimum gaps quickly increase above 2sec. In 2018 they even had 4sec gaps once Ric went full pace for the first stop. Already at lap 14, P1 had a 30sec gap to P5, in lap 17 also to Bottas in P4.
So to make your strategy work, Ferrari, Merc, whoever would at least need two cars around P4 to maybe P6. Then hope for all front runners pitting behind this P6...why should they do this? And then a Ham or Ant needs to screw his own, decent race.

Red Bull will use Tsunoda if they can. Mclaren cannot stop until they have a pitstop gap to Tsunoda or their race is finished.

If we see a usual Tsunoda, he will not be in Q3 and out of any pitstop window by lap 5. I think your example with the Willies might make sense, but I do not see them that ahead and that fast. I do not see anyone but the usual three on pace to pull off anything. With RedBull not finding a sweet spot it is anyways McLaren vs. McLaren.

[AR3-GP]

Bad example. Norris was pitstop corrected not in top 10.

How does Williams get a car on P1 and two cars into the pitstop window of McLaren or RedBull?
Again, it would mean you need to have both cars at least in top 10. Looking at gaps on paced races, the minimum gaps quickly increase above 2sec. In 2018 they even had 4sec gaps once Ric went full pace for the first stop. Already at lap 14, P1 had a 30sec gap to P5, in lap 17 also to Bottas in P4.
So to make your strategy work, Ferrari, Merc, whoever would at least need two cars around P4 to maybe P6. Then hope for all front runners pitting behind this P6...why should they do this? And then a Ham or Ant needs to screw his own, decent race.

If we see a usual Tsunoda, he will not be in Q3 and out of any pitstop window by lap 5. I think your example with the Willies might make sense, but I do not see them that ahead and that fast. I do not see anyone but the usual three on pace to pull off anything. With RedBull not finding a sweet spot it is anyways McLaren vs. McLaren.

Its not up to the drivers. They don't drive independently. If I am a team boss of a team which has won no race this year, then I would say qualifying will decide which driver gets sacrificed (fair enough) and give them no choice in the matter. It's a team sport. This unique layout gives a rare opportunity for a team that wouldn't ordinarily be fast enough to win.

[rbirules]

If we see a usual Tsunoda, he will not be in Q3 . . .

Yuki has missed Q3 twice all seasons. In Japan which was his first race weekend in the RB21, and last weekend in Imola when he crashed in Q1. (He also didn't make it to SQ3 in Miami, but did in China.)

[venkyhere]

Red Bull will use Tsunoda if they can. Mclaren cannot stop until they have a pitstop gap to Tsunoda or their race is finished.

Contrary to popular opinion in this regard, the way Tsunoda is driving the car where he is not 'optimal' with his brakes, I think the Mclarens will actually execute a rare 'pass' at the chicane coming out of the tunnel. He is not confident enough with the car to execute a late-brake defense.

[AR3-GP]

Red Bull will use Tsunoda if they can. Mclaren cannot stop until they have a pitstop gap to Tsunoda or their race is finished.

Contrary to popular opinion in this regard, the way Tsunoda is driving the car where he is not 'optimal' with his brakes, I think the Mclarens will actually execute a rare 'pass' at the chicane coming out of the tunnel. He is not confident enough with the car to execute a late-brake defense.

If TSU gets overtaken in Monaco...he shouldn't be driving in Spain

[basti313]

If we see a usual Tsunoda, he will not be in Q3 . . .

Yuki has missed Q3 twice all seasons. In Japan which was his first race weekend in the RB21, and last weekend in Imola when he crashed in Q1. (He also didn't make it to SQ3 in Miami, but did in China.)

Whatever it is...in 99% of the cases he will not see a McLaren on track without blue flags.

[Seanspeed]

If we see a usual Tsunoda, he will not be in Q3 . . .

Yuki has missed Q3 twice all seasons. In Japan which was his first race weekend in the RB21, and last weekend in Imola when he crashed in Q1. (He also didn't make it to SQ3 in Miami, but did in China.)

Let's be real, he's been miles off Verstappen's pace in the RB21 still. It's sad when even on a 'positive' weekend, we're talking about whether he can scrape into Q3 while his teammate is fighting for pole and winning races.

In no other world would anybody consider this anything but absolute embarrassment and awful.

Not even saying Tsunoda is trash or anything, not by any means. Cuz I also thought Perez was very unfairly maligned by fans, cuz we knew from many years prior that Perez was a quality driver. But I think 2nd driver performance in that RB21 is gonna be one of the bigger indicators whether the car is really making meaningful steps forward or whether Verstappen just continues to GOAT his way into results with it anyways.