Phil wrote: ↑08 Oct 2017, 17:57
Restomaniac wrote: ↑08 Oct 2017, 17:40
Do you ever wake up feeling like Homer Simpson chasing a hog roast?
Yeah.
But a championship isn’t won before it is done. And while the chance is mathematically slim, it isn’t impossible. Who would have thought that Vettel will suffer 3 races in a row with a significant compromize, two being DNFs, before Singapore? No one.
They can happen to Hamilton too, at the very least there should be some small concern over the vibrations in his PU in Suzuka. Not to mention that DNFs can happen for all sorts of reasons as Vettel is demonstrating.... from driver error to spark plug and others.
It really isnt won till it is.
After the horror show in 2014, Mercedes has paid enormous amount of attention to the reliability of the PU. From 2015 onward, their failure rate rate has been extremely low, while competitors were trying to change architectures, experiment and go through various strategies to develop PU, Mercedes has been paying highest possible attention to enhance the reliability.
Last year, none of the customers teams had a failure and neither this year so far. The only one that had an engine failure and a few reliability issues last year, was Hamilton. This year, only Bottas suffered a PU failure in Spain. Which matches the last year's average failure for a Mercedes PU.
The advantage that Nico enjoyed last year was, when Hamilton was trying to come from behind, Nico could afford to turn down his engine and conserve it's life, which is the case now with Hamilton. In all the four previous races, Monza, Singapore, Malaysia and Japan, Hamilton has turned down his engine as his title rival was lost. That is a massive advantage to have.
With two failures, Ferrari has a big headache in their hand to analyze, understand and fix the problems. Even if they think they have fixed it, they will be tentative. The only solace is the championship situation, where there is no other option than attacking, meaning, taking the PU to extreme, meaning, risk.
With Hamilton leading with such a handy lead, if he falls behind Vettel in any of the next races, he will play the percentage game and conserve his engine as he can easily afford to do it, just like Nico did last year. If Vettel falls behind, he will have to push and take risk.