2019 performance speculation

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LM10
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by LM10 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:51 pm

Juzh wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:40 pm
What about laptimes? We've heard drivers saying downforce will be more of less equal, but the front wing is getting a serious nerf even with the extra width. Outwashing potential is severely limited. I predict at least 1s slower cars on average during quali. We don't know what pirelli will bring to the table, but from their ramblings late last year I expect them to go more conservative for 2019, kinda like 2017 where most tires could go race distance easily. That would probably make race pace on par with 2018, also helped by extra fuel available.
I don’t think that they are going to be much slower, surely not by 1 second.
I guess that towards end of the season we’re gonna see even faster times than last season.

Juzh
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Juzh » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:57 pm

LM10 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:51 pm
Juzh wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:40 pm
What about laptimes? We've heard drivers saying downforce will be more of less equal, but the front wing is getting a serious nerf even with the extra width. Outwashing potential is severely limited. I predict at least 1s slower cars on average during quali. We don't know what pirelli will bring to the table, but from their ramblings late last year I expect them to go more conservative for 2019, kinda like 2017 where most tires could go race distance easily. That would probably make race pace on par with 2018, also helped by extra fuel available.
I don’t think that they are going to be much slower, surely not by 1 second.
I guess that towards end of the season we’re gonna see even faster times than last season.
I think you're underestimating the effect of outwash and how important it was to the overall car performance. Something like 2/3s of surface area was only there solely for that purpose and now all of that is gone. I'd say at least a few teams will get this wrong at the start and will have to scramble, while even the best solution will be nowhere as effective as the old wings.

turbof1
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by turbof1 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:19 pm

Juzh wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:57 pm
LM10 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:51 pm
Juzh wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:40 pm
What about laptimes? We've heard drivers saying downforce will be more of less equal, but the front wing is getting a serious nerf even with the extra width. Outwashing potential is severely limited. I predict at least 1s slower cars on average during quali. We don't know what pirelli will bring to the table, but from their ramblings late last year I expect them to go more conservative for 2019, kinda like 2017 where most tires could go race distance easily. That would probably make race pace on par with 2018, also helped by extra fuel available.
I don’t think that they are going to be much slower, surely not by 1 second.
I guess that towards end of the season we’re gonna see even faster times than last season.
I think you're underestimating the effect of outwash and how important it was to the overall car performance. Something like 2/3s of surface area was only there solely for that purpose and now all of that is gone. I'd say at least a few teams will get this wrong at the start and will have to scramble, while even the best solution will be nowhere as effective as the old wings.
There will be a lot of focus on the bargeboards now to compensate for the loss to manipulate the flow structures. Yes, this will still not be as good as the old wings, partially because the bargeboards can't stop the flow hitting the front tyre, but it will recuperate atleast quite a bit of the loss in rear and floor downforce, probably in expense of more drag.
#AeroFrodo

Capharol
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Capharol » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:23 pm

turbof1 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:19 pm
Juzh wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:57 pm
LM10 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:51 pm


I don’t think that they are going to be much slower, surely not by 1 second.
I guess that towards end of the season we’re gonna see even faster times than last season.
I think you're underestimating the effect of outwash and how important it was to the overall car performance. Something like 2/3s of surface area was only there solely for that purpose and now all of that is gone. I'd say at least a few teams will get this wrong at the start and will have to scramble, while even the best solution will be nowhere as effective as the old wings.
There will be a lot of focus on the bargeboards now to compensate for the loss to manipulate the flow structures. Yes, this will still not be as good as the old wings, partially because the bargeboards can't stop the flow hitting the front tyre, but it will recuperate atleast quite a bit of the loss in rear and floor downforce, probably in expense of more drag.
wasn't it RB or rumours around RB saying that they are already par with the 2018 speed?
Strive for continuous improvement, instead of perfection.

turbof1
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by turbof1 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:48 pm

Capharol wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:23 pm
turbof1 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:19 pm
Juzh wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:57 pm

I think you're underestimating the effect of outwash and how important it was to the overall car performance. Something like 2/3s of surface area was only there solely for that purpose and now all of that is gone. I'd say at least a few teams will get this wrong at the start and will have to scramble, while even the best solution will be nowhere as effective as the old wings.
There will be a lot of focus on the bargeboards now to compensate for the loss to manipulate the flow structures. Yes, this will still not be as good as the old wings, partially because the bargeboards can't stop the flow hitting the front tyre, but it will recuperate atleast quite a bit of the loss in rear and floor downforce, probably in expense of more drag.
wasn't it RB or rumours around RB saying that they are already par with the 2018 speed?
But what part of 2018? There's probably more than a second difference between wintertesting of 2018 and abu dhabi 2018 :D .
#AeroFrodo

subcritical71
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by subcritical71 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:16 pm

Capharol wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:23 pm
turbof1 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:19 pm
Juzh wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:57 pm

I think you're underestimating the effect of outwash and how important it was to the overall car performance. Something like 2/3s of surface area was only there solely for that purpose and now all of that is gone. I'd say at least a few teams will get this wrong at the start and will have to scramble, while even the best solution will be nowhere as effective as the old wings.
There will be a lot of focus on the bargeboards now to compensate for the loss to manipulate the flow structures. Yes, this will still not be as good as the old wings, partially because the bargeboards can't stop the flow hitting the front tyre, but it will recuperate atleast quite a bit of the loss in rear and floor downforce, probably in expense of more drag.
wasn't it RB or rumours around RB saying that they are already par with the 2018 speed?
I believe they mentioned they were back to the downforce levels. Which I 100% believe. I even think they could get greater downforce if they wanted. As someone mentioned earlier the 2018 spec wing had alot of surfaces dedicated to outwash. 2019's wings can now use that area for downwash in addition to the extra surface due to being a wider wing.

Capharol
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Capharol » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:14 pm

subcritical71 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:16 pm
Capharol wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:23 pm

wasn't it RB or rumours around RB saying that they are already par with the 2018 speed?
I believe they mentioned they were back to the downforce levels. Which I 100% believe. I even think they could get greater downforce if they wanted. As someone mentioned earlier the 2018 spec wing had alot of surfaces dedicated to outwash. 2019's wings can now use that area for downwash in addition to the extra surface due to being a wider wing.
yes correct, it was the Downforce level and no advantage in overtaking
Strive for continuous improvement, instead of perfection.

nevill3
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by nevill3 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:13 pm

I think that Mercedes have the advantage of having less rake than most other teams so the new regulations that require a rethink on the extreme rake angles should impact them less.

I do believe that McLaren and Williams will have an early season advantage over their immediate rivals due to them switching to developing next years car so early, making up for their inferior budgets compared to the top three. Their proportionally limited resources would have been focused on development longer so they could match the top three in their initial aero packages but may slip behind as the development war through the season catches and passes them.

However if they have a working package from the start with any initial flaws already ironed out they can concentrate on fine tuning things and stay competitive until the summer break/Spanish GP.

Fingers crossed for eight races with eight different winners at the start as we had before
Sent from my Commodore PET in 1978

LM10
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by LM10 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:24 pm

nevill3 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:13 pm
I think that Mercedes have the advantage of having less rake than most other teams so the new regulations that require a rethink on the extreme rake angles should impact them less.
Why do you think that the new regulations require a rethink on high rakes?

gandharva
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by gandharva » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:32 pm

LM10 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:24 pm
nevill3 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:13 pm
I think that Mercedes have the advantage of having less rake than most other teams so the new regulations that require a rethink on the extreme rake angles should impact them less.
Why do you think that the new regulations require a rethink on high rakes?
Because with the simplified aerodynamic rules the sealing of the diffuser becomes more difficult. In the past most of the vortices to seal the diffuser were generated at the frontwing. This is not that easy anymore.

Bill
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by Bill » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:22 pm

Teams had wide wings between 09 and 14 they are not new new am sure they will find a solution

nevill3
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by nevill3 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:07 pm

LM10 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:24 pm

Why do you think that the new regulations require a rethink on high rakes?
From all the reports online that I have read so far, with the increased difficulty in controlling the front tyre wake due to the limiting of the "outwash" front wing concepts sealing the floor will be made more difficult and a more neutral rake should be easier to seal. I am no aerodynamicist so could be totally wide of the mark but it is just my perception of how the previous aero regs had been manipulated to provide the drag/downforce that was achieved by many teams.

I can see one or two teams running into the same problems McLaren had last year with controlling the negative effects the wake from the front wheels were having on their aero package. Resulting in a loss of downforce whenever the wheels were turned.
Sent from my Commodore PET in 1978

dans79
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by dans79 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:20 pm

Bill wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:22 pm
Teams had wide wings between 09 and 14 they are not new new am sure they will find a solution
You need to read the rules in more detail. The issues don't stem from the wings being wider, its because they are now required to be substantially simpler.

dans79
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by dans79 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:25 pm

here is a decent short overview.


lio007
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Re: 2019 performance speculation

Post by lio007 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:53 pm

turbof1 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:48 pm
Capharol wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:23 pm
turbof1 wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:19 pm

There will be a lot of focus on the bargeboards now to compensate for the loss to manipulate the flow structures. Yes, this will still not be as good as the old wings, partially because the bargeboards can't stop the flow hitting the front tyre, but it will recuperate atleast quite a bit of the loss in rear and floor downforce, probably in expense of more drag.
wasn't it RB or rumours around RB saying that they are already par with the 2018 speed?
But what part of 2018? There's probably more than a second difference between wintertesting of 2018 and abu dhabi 2018 :D .
Part of 2018: August

Source: https://www.formel1.de/news/news/2019-0 ... s-wirklich
Außerdem reizen ihn die neuen Formel-1-Regeln, die 2019 (und dann noch einmal im Jahr 2021) kommen. Und mit denen scheint er auf einem guten Weg zu sein: Bereits zu Weihnachten hatte Red Bull im Designprozess des 2019er-Autos das gleiche Downforce-Niveau erreicht wie im August 2018 ...