2019 Mexican Grand Prix - Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, 25-27 October

[Just_a_fan]

It's happening at a similar point in his career as it happened to Hamilton in 2011.

The difference is though he hasn't got a teammate who is matching him in qualy or race pace like Button did, Albon is doing a decent job but let's be honest he's miles off Max.

Button matched Hamilton in races (in terms of wins they were close at 10:8 to Hamilton),
Button scored 3 more podiums than Hamilton in 2011 (Hamilton's "breakdown season") to give him a better overall podium comparison of 25:22.
But in qualifying Button never got anywhere near. It was 9 poles :1 pole in favour of Hamilton in qualifying. It was also 9:6 to Hamilton in fastest laps.

Button was a canny operator, beautifully smooth and quick on his day but he didn't have Hamilton's raw pace or ability to drive around a problem. Button's admitted as much in interviews over the years.

Rosberg was much closer to Hamilton than Button was.

But that's a side issue when comparing Hamilton and Vestappen. Hamilton had already beaten the reigning world champion and secured his own first world title by the time he got to Vestappen's current tenure in F1...Max needs to calm down in order to maximise his obvious ability. If he doesn't, he'll be one of those "what if" drivers that history is littered with.

Actually, thinking about it, I wonder if Max's meteoric rise to F1 is working against him. He was put in an F1 seat after only 1 year of single seater racing. Hamilton did 5 years in single seaters before his F1 debut (although lots of people moan that he got a winning car from the off, he showed his talent over the years to earn the opportunity). Alonso only did 2 seasons in single seaters before F1 but, having had a year at the back in Minardi he went and had a season as a test driver before getting back in a race seat. Vettel did 4 and a half seasons in single seaters (including test driver roles) before getting his own seat. Even Michael had 3-4 years of junior stuff before his break in to F1.

I think Max has basically been learning on the job and it's a difficult way to polish your skill set. I think he'd have been a real force in F1 if he'd had 2, 3 or even 4 years in junior formulae learning his trade, and more specifically learning about how other drivers behave. He's blindingly quick - we all know that - but it seems as if he's always driving relying on his reactions rather than experience when driving near other drivers.

[izzy]

I am actually begining to worry for Max. He came in as teenager with so much promise that we tend to still think he is a rookie forgetting he is in his fifth year! and he hasnt' really matured into an "experienced" driver yet. When will it happen?

he needs to get rid of Jos if you ask me, as a start. F1 dads are generally a bad influence

[Restomaniac]

Don't forget Hamilton in his McLaren years, lots of his DNF's were first lap incidents, quite similar to what Verstappen experienced. Over time we tend to forget these.

Besides that, the RedBull is still a car where you have to make your move in slow corners, which are high risk moves compared to sail past on DRS on a straight. We've seen the so called "dive bombs" from Ricciardo, Verstappen and Albon now as well.

Lewis has never driven like Max. At 22 he had a reputation for 'aggressive' driving but it was clean, he'd commit and be past before the other guy had time to react. Even in 2011 that everyone exaggerates he only had one clear mistake (Singapore) otherwise it was the stewards, or Massa or Koba turning into him or Maldonado.

There's a lot to like about Max but he's very aggressive without having that judgment Lewis has. Last year he had incidents in HALF the races! (10/21). Yesterday he deliberately steered into Lewis but badly, knocked him onto the green so Lewis lost his back end as well, and then left his front wing hopefully on the outside into T3! Then did a block pass on Valtteri that VB wasn't expecting... and that was after tossing away pole. He's stubborn to a ridiculous degree and too aggressive to succeed, if he can't get it under control. Lewis obviously is who he's hoping to emulate, and now he's the age Lewis was when he started, he needs to see that Lewis' judgment is what's made him so successful. Not aggression. Yesterday was this whole story in 1 race, but it applies to an awful lot of races

Exactly. In his rookie year Hamilton got as close to a WDC as a rookie ever has. The following year he managed it beating a 2 time WDC in the same car on the way.

[Just_a_fan]

Exactly. In his rookie year Hamilton got as close to a WDC as a rookie ever has. The following year he managed it beating a 2 time WDC in the same car on the way.

Er, the 2-time champion was in his rookie year in 2007. Alonso was gone in 2008 and Lewis's team mate was then Heikki.

[TAG]

Don't forget Hamilton in his McLaren years, lots of his DNF's were first lap incidents, quite similar to what Verstappen experienced. Over time we tend to forget these.

I think you're right about the need for higher risk moves with the Red Bull, Ricciardo does it as well, but for some reason Ricciardon's don't end in tragedy nearly as often so it comes back to Max.

Hamilton's McLaren years is a funny thing to say, although he was young and impetuous, the majority of the inviolvents were not of his doing. Between Maldonado, Grosjean and Massa Hamilton was their prefered target for many of those years.

The thing to remember about Max is that he is still young but he's by far not a rookie. he's got 99 F1 starts, five years and he's still making basic mistakes when his cage is rattled. He's not one to buckle under pressure it's just an apparent short circuiting under the red mist conditions and he doesn't know how to step back and re-evaluate thing. Red Bull making 101 excuses for him is never going to help him.

Max "Copy Paste" Verstappen. Think the nickname will stick?

[Restomaniac]

Exactly. In his rookie year Hamilton got as close to a WDC as a rookie ever has. The following year he managed it beating a 2 time WDC in the same car on the way.

Er, the 2-time champion was in his rookie year in 2007. Alonso was gone in 2008 and Lewis's team mate was then Heikki.

Yeah Sorry

None the less he came as close as a rookie ever has which included fighting directly against a 2 time champion with the same equipment.

With regard to Verstappen. He can’t use his experience as an excuse. Neither can he use his age as is proved by Hamilton’s age in 2007.

In fact he’s at a tipping point. All the skills but will it ever transfer into a WDC? Bearing in mind that LeClerc, Norris, Albon, etc are only going to get better with experience.

[TAG]

I am actually begining to worry for Max. He came in as teenager with so much promise that we tend to still think he is a rookie forgetting he is in his fifth year! and he hasnt' really matured into an "experienced" driver yet. When will it happen?

he needs to get rid of Jos if you ask me, as a start. F1 dads are generally a bad influence

^^ This

[GPR-A]

I think Max has basically been learning on the job and it's a difficult way to polish your skill set. I think he'd have been a real force in F1 if he'd had 2, 3 or even 4 years in junior formulae learning his trade, and more specifically learning about how other drivers behave. He's blindingly quick - we all know that - but it seems as if he's always driving relying on his reactions rather than experience when driving near other drivers.

One of the most important things happened to Hamilton at Mercedes, was having Niki alongside. He was a friend, a bit of a coach who could challenge him in right areas and question him when it was needed. It steered Hamilton in the right direction. Max needs someone like that and his father did his job of bringing him to where he is, but he needs someone who has been there, done that and who can be that guy who can show a bit of direction (it's easy to get it wrong too). Modern sports (all of them) are all extremely detail oriented now and it's important to have every aspect sorted to achieve success. Having talent alone is not enough and counting on experience to teach you, is a bygone era. It works, but in the process, one would have lost a truck load of time and endure a lot of humiliation.

[LM10]

Yeah Sorry

None the less he came as close as a rookie ever has which included fighting directly against a 2 time champion with the same equipment.

With regard to Verstappen. He can’t use his experience as an excuse. Neither can he use his age as is proved by Hamilton’s age in 2007.

In fact he’s at a tipping point. All the skills but will it ever transfer into a WDC? Bearing in mind that LeClerc, Norris, Albon, etc are only going to get better with experience.

Helmut Marko told that they will do everything to make Max the youngest WDC next year which is gonna be the last opportunity.

[dans79]

Max needs someone like that and his father did his job of bringing him to where he is, but he needs someone who has been there, done that and who can be that guy who can show a bit of direction (it's easy to get it wrong too).

The issue with Jas is that imo he is living through Max like an overbearing sports parent. All its doing is making Max more Arrogant, entitled, and belligerent. Not to mention Jas is far from a stellar upstanding father figure.

[Wynters]

No, they were giving Vettel false hope that his tyres would fall off the cliff. You don't hang back if you believe that to be the case, you turn it up and put on the pressure.

1) Why lie to your driver? It sets the expectation that he can't trust the race strategy updates from his own pit. Even ignoring the long term damage it would do, giving Vettel the wrong info means he will take an incorrect approach to driving the rest of the race. It isn't as if Vettel wouldn't find out the Hards lasted (not that it was clear they would at that stage as the temps and, therefore, performance were different from Friday's exploratory running). There's nothing to gain from lying to Vettel and several things to lose, in both the short and long term. It'd be a crushingly stupid thing to do.

2) If Hamilton's tyres are going to remove him from the race anyway, why turn everything up and push? You're risking damage to components / pushing too hard and crashing / tangling with Hamilton himself / etc. There's very little to gain (you'll take the lead anyway) and, potentially, the entire race to lose. It'd be a crushingly stupid thing to do.

[Wynters]

he needs to see that Lewis' judgment is what's made him so successful. Not aggression.

I was thinking about this yesterday (as Hamilton was bouncing across the grass having been pushed off for a second time before he even reached T3). It seems he's got a reputation as someone who can just be pushed around by the others. Verstappen does it, Leclerc does it, Vettel does it. My initial, instinctive reaction was that it's a weakness.

But, as I thought about it more, I realised the opposite was obviously true.

When someone pushes Hamilton around, he might lose the position (see Leclerc in Monza and Vettel & Verstappen in Mexico) but, worse-case-scenario, he only scores slightly fewer points than he might have at the end of the race. When, in the same situation, the others let their machismo do they talking...they spin, pick up punctures or DNF half (most of?) the time. Hamilton might give people plenty of space and ease off rather than keep his foot in, but he scores far more points that way. It's fascinating that the others don't seem to have realised it.

[Phil]

I think Hamilton just knows when to be aggressive and when not to be. E.g. last season, he was more aggressive towards Vettel when he knew he could be (i.e. going around the outside into the chicane at Monza when Vettel spun) because in a crash situation, both would crash out which would have been better for Lewis (who was leading the wdc but an underdog going into that race).

Obviously, challenging someone who is not in contention for the wdc is lose/lose, hence why he is giving Verstappen more space and backing out when he must.

[Wynters]

I think Max has basically been learning on the job and it's a difficult way to polish your skill set. I think he'd have been a real force in F1 if he'd had 2, 3 or even 4 years in junior formulae learning his trade, and more specifically learning about how other drivers behave. He's blindingly quick - we all know that - but it seems as if he's always driving relying on his reactions rather than experience when driving near other drivers.

One of the most important things happened to Hamilton at Mercedes, was having Niki alongside. He was a friend, a bit of a coach who could challenge him in right areas and question him when it was needed. It steered Hamilton in the right direction. Max needs someone like that and his father did his job of bringing him to where he is, but he needs someone who has been there, done that and who can be that guy who can show a bit of direction (it's easy to get it wrong too). Modern sports (all of them) are all extremely detail oriented now and it's important to have every aspect sorted to achieve success. Having talent alone is not enough and counting on experience to teach you, is a bygone era. It works, but in the process, one would have lost a truck load of time and endure a lot of humiliation.

I think he also benefited from being in Championship battles (as early as his first season) where every point mattered. When you crash out going for the lead, you swap 18 points for 0. Is that risk always worth the potential 7 point gain? After 2007 & 2008, he experienced it again with Rosberg (primarily through reliability). If you lose a handful of points to a rival, you can get them back in the next race. If you DNF, that's 3+ race wins just to claw them back. Was Rosberg as fast as Hamilton? No. Did he accrue points with a single-minded remorselessness that, when the opportunity presented itself, meant he won a WDC? Yes.

This season is even easier. Albon is a slower driver, driving a car he's barely spent any time in, in a team he barely knows, in his rookie year (that he started by prepping for a different formula) and he's the obvious second driver (which is totally logical). And yet he's comfortably leading Verstappen in the only field that matters (since he started driving for RBR), championship points. By 50%.

The equivalent would be Leclerc being 80 points clear of Vettel at this stage and people would be writing Vettel off and calling for his retirement. And Leclerc has way more going for him than Albon does in terms of talent, prep time, experience and support (I appreciate this isn't a great comparison as Leclerc has many of the same opportunities for improvement as Verstappen but I wanted a comparable team situation to use as a comparison).

What seems to characterise Albon's approach? He knows when to take risks (mostly) and is notably (and publicly) self-critical. He sees his mistakes, takes the responsibility and processes them.

[Wynters]

I think Hamilton just knows when to be aggressive and when not to be. E.g. last season, he was more aggressive towards Vettel when he knew he could be (i.e. going around the outside into the chicane at Monza when Vettel spun) because in a crash situation, both would crash out which would have been better for Lewis (who was leading the wdc but an underdog going into that race).

Obviously, challenging someone who is not in contention for the wdc is lose/lose, hence why he is giving Verstappen more space and backing out when he must.

Good points, well made.