Just_a_fan wrote: ↑02 Dec 2020, 00:27
Manoah2u wrote: ↑02 Dec 2020, 00:20
Biggest chance yet for Max to get a win.
Great opportunity for Russell to shine (he's a qually beast so that's a good start), and beat Bottas.
I'm starting to warm to the thought of George and Max battling it out for the win. How much fun would that be?
Of course, the reality is that George will probably be asked to help Bottas secure 2nd in the drivers' title. Bottas is 12 points ahead of Max, I think, so needs to place adjacent to him in both races with one of those being ahead.
Though I agree that if it comes down to it, he'll be asked for Valterri to secure 2nd.
However, given Valterri's last performances, If he once again drops down the order at the start, what's the point?
RedBull have improved enough that Max is able to get a Top-3 qualification result, so he's already there.
Russell has been proving to be able to wringe a lot out of his material in qualification, and as such, I think he's got a good chance of making a good qualification result. A Top-4 qualification should definately be a possibility.
I would expect Bottas, Verstappen and Perez in that mix.
And those 4 would be also what i'd concider the contenders for the podium.
Hamilton in the Merc is too big of a chunk still for Max, Bottas has proven not to. Now it's up for Russell to show he can stand his ground, and indeed, i'd be in for a battle between Max and George.
If things aren't 'perfect' for Max, he tends to get to complain and miss out regarding the tires.
That's fine and all, and still will see him end up P2 without too much effort, but can cost him a chance at P1,
where i'm sure Russell will be very very verrrryyyy hungry and opportunistic for.
Not just that, but i think it would be quite a lot of 'fun' for Mercedes too to see what they can do with Russell.
It would not only mean the team would actually focus quite a lot on George - after all, they've already got everything in the bag, WDC and WCC and can take a risk if they wanted to. It would also be quite the headline to see them get a win with George Russell. Imagine getting Russell both a Pole position AND Win AND fastest lap in the first 'oval sakhir' race.
If we concider points for the coming two races:
Bottas 12 points ahead of Max:
If Max gets P1, Bottas P2, then that will shrink down by 7 points. 8 if Max also gets fastest Lap, 6 if Bottas gets fastest lap. still 4 or 6 points ahead.
So Max would need to finish 1st TWICE and even if Bottas finishes 2nd in those occasions, Max will take P2.
If however Russell wins, and Max is P2, and bottas P3, Max will only have gained 3 points on Bottas, leaving 9 points to still make up, let's make it 10 so we're sure that if they finish in a tie, Max will come out on top.
Max would then need to WIN the final GP, and Bottas will need to finish P3 and NOT get fastest lap for Max to beat him.
The issue i'm having to be honest is that Bottas has not been showing being a consistant P1 or P2 contender whatever the outcome. Contrary to Hamilton and Verstappen.
No matter the circumstances, Hamilton and Verstappen both, are likely to fight for P1 and P2.
Bottas however, in that regard, is like Albon: yes, he might get P1 or P2, but just as easily to be found anywhere between P3 and P5.
Quite frankly, Russel in the Merc would be extremely exciting.
Vandoorne would be boring af and i couldnt' be bothered by any means whatsoever and would not make any change for anybody's future nor would it do anything for Mercedes if he wins, or even finishes at all.
Guiterrez even less.
I really don't think anybody at Mercedes would really get 'excited' about VanDoorne there.
Again, complete opposite with Russell there, especially for two GP's.
Let's face it: if Russell is able to win both GP's, he could finish P12 in the WDC standings, beating Ocon.
Otherwise, he'll likely finish plum last.
No matter whom Williams will keep in the Williams seat however, it's extremely, extremely unlikely by all means that whilst not even remotely being close to a point all season, they are going to be able to not only score points in the final GP's 'thanks to Russell being there', but also score atleast 4 points, and Haas make 0 points, to one-up them in the WCC standings.
Even if you'd have Palmer and Guiterrez in both Haas, with their engines turned down by 40%, and even if you'd have Verstappen and Hamilton or Leclerc in the Williams cars, points are given if you finish P10 upwards.
That means you not only have to 'benefit' from one potential weaker seat that would be 'fittipaldi' (whom i'd probably concider better than Latifi anyway), but they'd ALSO need to fairly BEAT 11 grid positions for TWO RACES to finish P9 in the WDC ranks. Let's face it, that won't happen.
)
well played, well played.
