Silly season 2021-2022-2023

[JordanMugen]

I'd argue that even with LeClerc gone, there's little chance that Max ends up @ Ferrari since Sainz is there now and I feel Sainz is meant to be there for the long haul, and Max & Sainz has not really been the best of combos in a team. I'd see DannyRic or Lando Norris end up @ Ferrari before Max would.

I thought Ferrari were seen as having Schumacher nailed on A.S.A.P?

I expect the Haas to be super bad next year. There is no other team that develops as much backwards as Haas. This car will be undriveable and fighting with Latifi. The big issue with such a car is that you can proof nothing and will just show errors like Russel with driving into walls...
Same with the rule change...who will develop the Haas? Their first car was simply a copy of the Ferrari or a concept mule by Ferrari...but now they need to build a new car with just some Ex Ferrari engineers and no money???

You do not go into the Ferrari with being second to last, so I expect Haas to be a dead end street. If Schumacher is not lucky and can change to Alfa next year this will not work for him.

Ferrari have set up an independent engineering department at Maranello for their surplus staff to design the 2022 Haas car. So while the 2021 Haas may again be poor, the 2022 new regulation car should be competent as Haas are having 'Ferrari' design it.

[Scorpaguy]

I just do not think Bot has the killer instinct...aggressive overtakes are just not his forte. I believe his stats from last year point to him being an average driver (albeit in a field of elite drivers). Such is often taken as a swipe at Ham...but should not be (a soon to be 8X should need no defense against such silliness).

In the best car, Ham had an average finish of 1.875...in the same car Bot had an average finish of 5.294. Bot is not WDC material...but is capable of wielding a William's or Haas to the odd respectable finish.

[Fulcrum]

So...

Polling time. Will (not would/could/should) Hamilton continue above 2021? I think he will cash out on his 8th title and retire from F1.

Thoughts?

If he doesn't win the title this year, he will never win another title.

If he wins this year, I agree with you. If he loses, it depends how much he wants a paycheck.

[adrianjordan]

Quotes from Toto on BBC suggest that they agreed only 1 year because time was running out and this allows them to spend longer looking after 2022 onwards.

I think I would not believe a word that comes out of Toto's mouth. He holds all the aces. If I were Lewis, I'd definitely look at other options for 2022, just in case. Also, depends on whether he wants to race.

People are just talking about Russell, but Mercedes have a ready replacement for Bottas too in Ocon who's up for selection in 2022.

I think it'll be a Russell/Hamilton partnership but if Hamilton decides to be done, I think Ocon is reasonably placed to take the second Mercedes drive.

People are obsessed with Merc and Max but I think Max and Charles both will not move till they see what sort of car their current teams have made for 2022.

If the 4 options to Mercedes are not enough, there's always Seb at Aston who they have ties with and a Vettel/Russell line up isn't something out of the realms of possibility in my opinion.

I don't see Vettel ever driving for Mercedes in F1, why would they go for a driver who only has a couple of years left in F1. If they have a winning car then they can risk younger drivers and if they don't then they can invest for the future with a pair of younger drivers.

As for Ocon, wasn't he released from his Merc contract?

[Fulcrum]

The thing is with Mercedes is they have to give Hamilton more money than he was getting in the previous contract.
Good performance must be rewarded. F1 is a business and it makes no sense that he wins a champion and breaks records and gets less money. If he even gets 1 million more and some other perks the team is obligated to give an increase. That's how capitalism works. His value has increased because of his success and hardwork. Him taking less is irrational.
I only hope he isnt asking for ridiculous things.

Hamilton may very well have justified an increase in pay, unfortunately the circumstances have not been static. The pandemic has had a real effect on company bottom lines, Mercedes included.

If Hamilton gets $50M(+), he will be earning as much as half the workforce of the Mercedes F1 team combined, at a time when Daimler has already indicated it will cut 10,000 to 20,000 employees worldwide over the next couple of years.

There is an argument to be made that Hamilton is a more visible representation of the Mercedes brand, but I highly doubt he has greater influence on the global functioning of Daimler, certainly not as large as is implied by the discrepancy in pay between Hamilton and the Daimler CEO. Daimler executives have also taken a 20% paycut during the pandemic.

The optics of giving Hamilton a pay increase, while the overall business health has plummeted and people are being retrenched, do not work in Hamilton's favour. It's just bad timing.

As was mentioned in another post, things are amicable until they become acrimonious. If either Mercedes or Hamilton begin to draw lines in the sand, the goodwill between both parties will vaporize.

Hamilton accepting less would actually be pragmatic in the long run, especially if he wants to maintain a working business relationship with Mercedes beyond his racing career.

Pragmatism seems to have won out in this regard.

[El Scorchio]

I just do not think Bot has the killer instinct...aggressive overtakes are just not his forte. I believe his stats from last year point to him being an average driver (albeit in a field of elite drivers). Such is often taken as a swipe at Ham...but should not be (a soon to be 8X should need no defense against such silliness).

In the best car, Ham had an average finish of 1.875...in the same car Bot had an average finish of 5.294. Bot is not WDC material...but is capable of wielding a William's or Haas to the odd respectable finish.

That stat is a really dumb way of supposedly working out how good a driver is. Just for the record, it makes Perez (7.4) in a Racing Point a better driver than Verstappen (7.5 avg) in a Red Bull.

[Just_a_fan]

I just do not think Bot has the killer instinct...aggressive overtakes are just not his forte. I believe his stats from last year point to him being an average driver (albeit in a field of elite drivers). Such is often taken as a swipe at Ham...but should not be (a soon to be 8X should need no defense against such silliness).

In the best car, Ham had an average finish of 1.875...in the same car Bot had an average finish of 5.294. Bot is not WDC material...but is capable of wielding a William's or Haas to the odd respectable finish.

That stat is a really dumb way of supposedly working out how good a driver is. Just for the record, it makes Perez (7.4) in a Racing Point a better driver than Verstappen (7.5 avg) in a Red Bull.

Max's is bad if you take the retirements as nill-point finishes. Finishes that were as a result of mechanical failure or being taken out by someone else's stupidity shouldn't be counted, in my view. If the driver loses it themselves, then that's fair to count it.

Which does, of course, agree with your premise that average finishing place is not a great metric to discuss drivers.

[Big Tea]

I just do not think Bot has the killer instinct...aggressive overtakes are just not his forte. I believe his stats from last year point to him being an average driver (albeit in a field of elite drivers). Such is often taken as a swipe at Ham...but should not be (a soon to be 8X should need no defense against such silliness).

In the best car, Ham had an average finish of 1.875...in the same car Bot had an average finish of 5.294. Bot is not WDC material...but is capable of wielding a William's or Haas to the odd respectable finish.

That stat is a really dumb way of supposedly working out how good a driver is. Just for the record, it makes Perez (7.4) in a Racing Point a better driver than Verstappen (7.5 avg) in a Red Bull.

Max's is bad if you take the retirements as nill-point finishes. Finishes that were as a result of mechanical failure or being taken out by someone else's stupidity shouldn't be counted, in my view. If the driver loses it themselves, then that's fair to count it.

Which does, of course, agree with your premise that average finishing place is not a great metric to discuss drivers.

In the case of Bottas, Hamilton was always in front of him to get that score, so should not any races Hamilton was infront of him be be disregarded when reaching his score? Then presumably the same on down the line so all are judged against the same mark?

[El Scorchio]

I just do not think Bot has the killer instinct...aggressive overtakes are just not his forte. I believe his stats from last year point to him being an average driver (albeit in a field of elite drivers). Such is often taken as a swipe at Ham...but should not be (a soon to be 8X should need no defense against such silliness).

In the best car, Ham had an average finish of 1.875...in the same car Bot had an average finish of 5.294. Bot is not WDC material...but is capable of wielding a William's or Haas to the odd respectable finish.

That stat is a really dumb way of supposedly working out how good a driver is. Just for the record, it makes Perez (7.4) in a Racing Point a better driver than Verstappen (7.5 avg) in a Red Bull.

Max's is bad if you take the retirements as nill-point finishes. Finishes that were as a result of mechanical failure or being taken out by someone else's stupidity shouldn't be counted, in my view. If the driver loses it themselves, then that's fair to count it.

Which does, of course, agree with your premise that average finishing place is not a great metric to discuss drivers.

Exactly- that's what's been done with Bottas in this calculation so therefore it's only 'fair' to add Max's DNAs as well.
But yes this method is really poor as Max/Sergio demonstrates. It also still grades Bottas as the second 'best' driver on the grid so it's a bit pointless as a way of trying to belittle him.

[Just_a_fan]

That stat is a really dumb way of supposedly working out how good a driver is. Just for the record, it makes Perez (7.4) in a Racing Point a better driver than Verstappen (7.5 avg) in a Red Bull.

Max's is bad if you take the retirements as nill-point finishes. Finishes that were as a result of mechanical failure or being taken out by someone else's stupidity shouldn't be counted, in my view. If the driver loses it themselves, then that's fair to count it.

Which does, of course, agree with your premise that average finishing place is not a great metric to discuss drivers.

In the case of Bottas, Hamilton was always in front of him to get that score, so should not any races Hamilton was infront of him be be disregarded when reaching his score? Then presumably the same on down the line so all are judged against the same mark?

The point was to show that using an average position metric doesn't really work as it doesn't allow for stuff out of the driver's control such as reliability etc.

[JordanMugen]

Bottas has had many races against Lewis where he has outperformed Lewis and races where he completely lost it. This doesn't mean that Russel would be any better than Bottas at challenging Hamilton on a consistent basis, race in, race out, across an entire season. Few have proven to be a match in those terms.

Bottas has struggled to amass the number of wins in his career, that Button or Rosberg amassed in one season. Why Mercedes persist with Bottas remains a mystery when the likes of Ricciardo, Alonso were available for 2019 and now Russell too...

[Phil]

Bottas has had many races against Lewis where he has outperformed Lewis and races where he completely lost it. This doesn't mean that Russel would be any better than Bottas at challenging Hamilton on a consistent basis, race in, race out, across an entire season. Few have proven to be a match in those terms.

Bottas has comprehensively demonstrated he is less skilled in Formula One than Button or Rosberg -- who are both often viewed as slightly above average journeymen themselves. Bottas has struggled to amass the number of wins in his career, that Button or Rosberg amassed in one season. Why Mercedes persist with such a mediocre second driver as Bottas remains a mystery when the likes of Ricciardo, Alonso and now Russell have been available...

In Bottas defence, he has faced Hamilton as a team mate under very different circumstances than both Button or Rosberg have. Rosberg had the benefit of being in a vastly superior car (relative to next closest competitor), meaning that it was usually finishing 1st or 2nd. Even a bad start would rarely impact that result, except for the 7 points difference. This of course made it easier for Rosberg to compete against Hamilton and even win a championship, although it should not lessen the achievement and consistency that was necessary to do so - for example; Rosberg did manage to compete fairly close in QF which carried over to having a strategic benefit in races that further helped him cement wins.

Bottas did not have this luxury. In both 2017 and 2018, Vettel/Ferrari were leading most of both championships. Also the fact that RedBull was not far behind in races, means that simply starting behind your team-mate further compromized many of his races - either by him being used as a strategic element to secure the best possibly team-result or he fell into traffic or was put on B-strategies. Even in 2019, the Ferrari was a very strong contender further influencing his race results.

2020 the dominance level of the Mercedes was similar to what Rosberg enjoyed, but I'd argue that even here, the RedBull was far closer in race trim, which again, influenced how well Bottas could be competitive. I'd also argue that Hamilton has become a better and fiercer competitor. So it's not exactly "the same benchmark".

In other words; Bottas has had it more difficult than Lewis's former team-mates. Overall, I still think Rosberg was a more fiercer competitor than Bottas is. Maybe not necessarily quicker, but fiercer and that includes the psychological warfare to take Lewis out of his comfort zone. Overall, it's very difficult to compare the two IMO.

Bottas certainly looks weaker mentally, but that could change if he ever got to lead the championship with some significant margin like Rosberg did. He just didn't get that chance and a lot of times, luck has also been a factor (the puncture i.e. in Baku).

[Big Tea]

Bottas has had many races against Lewis where he has outperformed Lewis and races where he completely lost it. This doesn't mean that Russel would be any better than Bottas at challenging Hamilton on a consistent basis, race in, race out, across an entire season. Few have proven to be a match in those terms.

Bottas has comprehensively demonstrated he is less skilled in Formula One than Button or Rosberg -- who are both often viewed as slightly above average journeymen themselves. Bottas has struggled to amass the number of wins in his career, that Button or Rosberg amassed in one season. Why Mercedes persist with such a mediocre second driver as Bottas remains a mystery when the likes of Ricciardo, Alonso and now Russell have been available...

TBH, I am not sure how many of those wins Nico would have with Lewis Hamilton of today in the other car. He is a more finished article now and probably would not fall to Nico's mind games.

[JordanMugen]

TBH, I am not sure how many of those wins Nico would have with Lewis Hamilton of today in the other car. He is a more finished article now and probably would not fall to Nico's mind games.

I have to strongly disagree there, sounds like the words of a Hamilton fan and not the words of a Rosberg fan.

Recall Rosberg taking fastest lap in his first ever Grand Prix -- he is a fast chap! The idea Hamilton is driving better is unproven. Mercedes had a vacant seat in 2019, Ricciardo was available -- the same Ricciardo who defeated 4xWDC Vettel in a unprecedented manner, just like Leclerc, and unlike Bottas has ever managed -- yet signature was put to paper for Bottas instead of Ricciardo: an inexplicable decision when there is every possibility Ricciardo could manage two or three times as many wins per season as Bottas!

Mercedes may as well announce Russell's three year contract now. The likelihood of Bottas defeating Hamilton the WDC and thus being retained is very low indeed.

[Big Tea]

TBH, I am not sure how many of those wins Nico would have with Lewis Hamilton of today in the other car. He is a more finished article now and probably would not fall to Nico's mind games.

I have to strongly disagree there.

The idea Hamilton is driving better? Well put Alonso back in the other car, or even Ricciardo then, that would give a better measure of that.

Not driving any better, but more world wise. I don't think Nico won the driving part it was the preparation and mindset.

At the time he was naïve and seemed to trust totally in the team.
He was also having 'girl trouble', disagreement with his dad, and Nico was the incumbent in the team after a stint with the all time dominant mind man.

He also now has Mz Cullen who I think is worth a couple of wins a season at least to Lewis. He is free to 'just drive' as she is like a mother/wife/big sister/PA and I believe would have arranged things so that Noco's antics would not have even been possible. If Lewis retires and does not take her with him, there will be a rush as fierce as the race for the Mercedes seat to get her onboard.