Silly season 2021-2022-2023

[Jolle]

You know, after initially and immediately dismissing 'Hamilton to Ferrari', I am having second thoughts.
He will have seen the potential in that car with Chas, and also seen them finish the year in the record books on a long time low.

What could give him more kudos than another championship? a championship in an unrated car.

Still don't think it will happen, but... not dismissing it now

I’m still kinda amazed that PMI hasn’t got their usual WC in a car. Only happened once since they stepped up their F1 presence since the early eighties, in 2007. Maybe a bit the same circumstances, Alonso already signed with McLaren and Schumacher was deemed to old. But still... just a two time race winner as the face of their loyal portfolio.

[El Scorchio]

You know, after initially and immediately dismissing 'Hamilton to Ferrari', I am having second thoughts.
He will have seen the potential in that car with Chas, and also seen them finish the year in the record books on a long time low.

What could give him more kudos than another championship? a championship in an unrated car.

Still don't think it will happen, but... not dismissing it now

I agree it's all that's missing from his CV, but I think Leclerc is ensconsed as the number 1 driver there now and the future of the team. I think it's highly improbable but not completely impossible, but if there were a certain weird chain of unlikely events where Hamilton doesn't drive for Mercedes but wants to stay in the sport I could see Ferrari paying one of the current drivers to sit out a year and yield their seat. Hamilton in a Ferrari is a marketing team's wet dream and a licence to print money.

[Fulcrum]

Hamilton to Ferrari doesn't make much sense to me, especially if the argument is control of his personal image, which seems to be the generally accepted sticking point at Mercedes.

Realistically, he will end his career at Mercedes. He's only ever driven Mercedes-powered cars.

I commented on a separate thread that Hamilton retiring at the end of 2020 was a possibility. To be precise, it was never "likely", just more likely than "never happening". I don't think he will, there being far too much money and prestige at stake, and it looks like an open goal for Hamilton at this point, but stranger things have happened.

[Big Tea]

Hamilton to Ferrari doesn't make much sense to me, especially if the argument is control of his personal image, which seems to be the generally accepted sticking point at Mercedes.

Realistically, he will end his career at Mercedes. He's only ever driven Mercedes-powered cars.

I commented on a separate thread that Hamilton retiring at the end of 2020 was a possibility. To be precise, it was never "likely", just more likely than "never happening". I don't think he will, there being far too much money and prestige at stake, and it looks like an open goal for Hamilton at this point, but stranger things have happened.

As you say, retiring was (is?) a possibility, so anything else is a bonus really. From his non F1 box, what will give him the best pedestal?
Something off the wall like moving to Ferrari and all the associated contacts in media and the power world?
He could mix with 'the people he would like influence with' through this channel.
It would not be about driving for Ferrari, I don't think that matters to him, but means to an end? Hmm

[Just_a_fan]

Something off the wall like moving to Ferrari and all the associated contacts in media and the power world?
He could mix with 'the people he would like influence with' through this channel.
It would not be about driving for Ferrari, I don't think that matters to him, but means to an end? Hmm

Why would being at Ferrari help with that? Why wouldn't he be able to approach any of the relevant people just because he's not a Ferrari driver?

Look around the world - the power people drive Mercs as much as they drive Ferraris.

[aMessageToCharlie]

No, Hamilton’s hand is weaker now than during his last contract extension in 2018 because;

1. Mercedes is more dominant now than they were in 2018, so they need him less
2. Hamilton is three years older now than he was then
3. Mercedes have a cheap young driver who has already shown what he can do in a Mercedes
4. COVID

I would be amazed if Daimler increase his salary. Let’s wait and see.

I agree. “Morally” — you might think hiring Lewis now has more value given he has more titles and wins than his last contract extension. But Mercedes (the car company) imo has in the past been very strict business numbers oriented — very stereotypically German, in a sense — and they will see that because their car is so dominant then it doesn’t “require” a Lewis. A B or B+ driver would be “enough”

For example, if we eliminate Lewis out of this year’s results, and elevate every one 1 spot behind him in races by a spot, Bottas would have been “enough” to be champion. In fact the points gap between Verstappen and Bottas would increase (I did the sums in a spreadsheet some time back but I forgot where. Could be interesting to post as a thread some time if i can find it).

Hence — they don’t “need” a Lewis — they only need someone to be “just” as good as Bottas — whatever level he may be — to secure a title double.

May sound cruel to not offer a 7wdc more pay than you offer a 6(or less)wdc — but that is the harsh truth of business

Just had a quick look, and I make it Max gains 46pts and Bottas gains 47pts. So no change in results, you are correct. But considering Max had 5 retirements and Bottas had 1, It could and maybe should have been Max in 2nd place. A 10pt gap isn't big enough with 4 (3 if you add Silverstones non score for Bottas) extra non finishes for Max considering nearly every time he finshed, it was on the podium, so 10pts Bottas had were uselsess.
I would say looking at that, and the last 4 years as a whole. Mercedes do need Hamilton enough to pay him a big wage.
Don't forget the hype that will come if Lewis gets 8 titles, Merc will love that. Plus if he does get 2021 in the bag it means he also has 5 in a row like Michael did too , so another record equalled. More publicity .

This just goes to show how mediocre a drive Bottas is imho. Russell came in and bested him on his first attempt, so there's plenty of drivers capeable to secure the championship in that car. (in before Russell is the best thing ever now and not compareable to any top drivers with plenty of experience)

Also I see people arguing that Hamilton is the best marketing value ever and worth every penny of >=50Million. But at the same time it seems to be a well known fact that he doesnt want/like to do promo stuff? Which one is it then? Can't have both.

Mercedes' biggest competitors, BMW and Audi just announced leaving FE for COVID related economic reasons and I cant see them justify paying a premium just to have Hamilton cruise to another championship when the car is that dominant.

Imo Lewis should agree to whatever Mercedes offers and enjoy his WDC record. This is a buyers market and not the time to be greedy. Imagine him losing his seat (and record) over this. Just doesnt make sense.

[Big Tea]

Something off the wall like moving to Ferrari and all the associated contacts in media and the power world?
He could mix with 'the people he would like influence with' through this channel.
It would not be about driving for Ferrari, I don't think that matters to him, but means to an end? Hmm

Why would being at Ferrari help with that? Why wouldn't he be able to approach any of the relevant people just because he's not a Ferrari driver?

Look around the world - the power people drive Mercs as much as they drive Ferraris.

In a word (well two ) Philip Morris.

[Jolle]

Something off the wall like moving to Ferrari and all the associated contacts in media and the power world?
He could mix with 'the people he would like influence with' through this channel.
It would not be about driving for Ferrari, I don't think that matters to him, but means to an end? Hmm

Why would being at Ferrari help with that? Why wouldn't he be able to approach any of the relevant people just because he's not a Ferrari driver?

Look around the world - the power people drive Mercs as much as they drive Ferraris.

In a word (well two ) Philip Morris.

Philip Morris is one of the companies that, well, difficult to be openly associated with when you drive for a better world. On the other hand, they were the only sponsor to pull the sponsoring from their cars when Bernie decided to race in South Africa while a lot of counties prohibited sports from South Africa because of Apartheid, which as a Swiss company they didn’t have to do.

[El Scorchio]

Also I see people arguing that Hamilton is the best marketing value ever and worth every penny of >=50Million. But at the same time it seems to be a well known fact that he doesnt want/like to do promo stuff? Which one is it then? Can't have both.

Why is it an either or? It just means the level of promo stuff he agrees to do is worth the money he's being paid for it, in the eyes of those who are paying.

10% of Hamilton's time endorsing something is probably worth a lot more than 50% of any other driver's time due to his comparative global reach and relevancy, whether that's a palatable fact to you or not.

Added: Just as a very basic measure, Hamilton has 20m instagram followers. All the other drivers combined have 25m and the driver with the second largest is LeClerc at 3.7m. That's a very simple way of seeing the tremendous difference in commercial reach and value. Hamilton is worth almost the rest of the entire grid just by himself.

[PlatinumZealot]

Now Hamilton has 7 XWDC they MUST pay him more because of that fact. And Hamilton needs his 8th. He drives they provide the car. They must pay him more and he must drive better and promote the brand better. No free meals for either if them.

No, Hamilton’s hand is weaker now than during his last contract extension in 2018 because;

1. Mercedes is more dominant now than they were in 2018, so they need him less
2. Hamilton is three years older now than he was then
3. Mercedes have a cheap young driver who has already shown what he can do in a Mercedes
4. COVID

I would be amazed if Daimler increase his salary. Let’s wait and see.

I agree. “Morally” — you might think hiring Lewis now has more value given he has more titles and wins than his last contract extension. But Mercedes (the car company) imo has in the past been very strict business numbers oriented — very stereotypically German, in a sense — and they will see that because their car is so dominant then it doesn’t “require” a Lewis. A B or B+ driver would be “enough”

For example, if we eliminate Lewis out of this year’s results, and elevate every one 1 spot behind him in races by a spot, Bottas would have been “enough” to be champion. In fact the points gap between Verstappen and Bottas would increase (I did the sums in a spreadsheet some time back but I forgot where. Could be interesting to post as a thread some time if i can find it).

Hence — they don’t “need” a Lewis — they only need someone to be “just” as good as Bottas — whatever level he may be — to secure a title double.

May sound cruel to not offer a 7wdc more pay than you offer a 6(or less)wdc — but that is the harsh truth of business

Aah.. But their NEW regulation car is not guaranteed to be dominant. This is the most important bit and where you need a driver with strong institutional knowledge and exper raport with the engineers. He will be worth every penny if he can usher in the new Era with a championship.

[Big Tea]

Why would being at Ferrari help with that? Why wouldn't he be able to approach any of the relevant people just because he's not a Ferrari driver?

Look around the world - the power people drive Mercs as much as they drive Ferraris.

In a word (well two ) Philip Morris.

Philip Morris is one of the companies that, well, difficult to be openly associated with when you drive for a better world. On the other hand, they were the only sponsor to pull the sponsoring from their cars when Bernie decided to race in South Africa while a lot of counties prohibited sports from South Africa because of Apartheid, which as a Swiss company they didn’t have to do.

Also, the sheer number of pies they have their finger in. It is the difference between Nouveau riche and old money.
If you needed someone on your side it would be them (not supporting them, it just is)

[holeindalip]

I agree. “Morally” — you might think hiring Lewis now has more value given he has more titles and wins than his last contract extension. But Mercedes (the car company) imo has in the past been very strict business numbers oriented — very stereotypically German, in a sense — and they will see that because their car is so dominant then it doesn’t “require” a Lewis. A B or B+ driver would be “enough”

For example, if we eliminate Lewis out of this year’s results, and elevate every one 1 spot behind him in races by a spot, Bottas would have been “enough” to be champion. In fact the points gap between Verstappen and Bottas would increase (I did the sums in a spreadsheet some time back but I forgot where. Could be interesting to post as a thread some time if i can find it).

Hence — they don’t “need” a Lewis — they only need someone to be “just” as good as Bottas — whatever level he may be — to secure a title double.

May sound cruel to not offer a 7wdc more pay than you offer a 6(or less)wdc — but that is the harsh truth of business

Just had a quick look, and I make it Max gains 46pts and Bottas gains 47pts. So no change in results, you are correct. But considering Max had 5 retirements and Bottas had 1, It could and maybe should have been Max in 2nd place. A 10pt gap isn't big enough with 4 (3 if you add Silverstones non score for Bottas) extra non finishes for Max considering nearly every time he finshed, it was on the podium, so 10pts Bottas had were uselsess.
I would say looking at that, and the last 4 years as a whole. Mercedes do need Hamilton enough to pay him a big wage.
Don't forget the hype that will come if Lewis gets 8 titles, Merc will love that. Plus if he does get 2021 in the bag it means he also has 5 in a row like Michael did too , so another record equalled. More publicity .

This just goes to show how mediocre a drive Bottas is imho. Russell came in and bested him on his first attempt, so there's plenty of drivers capeable to secure the championship in that car. (in before Russell is the best thing ever now and not compareable to any top drivers with plenty of experience)

Also I see people arguing that Hamilton is the best marketing value ever and worth every penny of >=50Million. But at the same time it seems to be a well known fact that he doesnt want/like to do promo stuff? Which one is it then? Can't have both.

Mercedes' biggest competitors, BMW and Audi just announced leaving FE for COVID related economic reasons and I cant see them justify paying a premium just to have Hamilton cruise to another championship when the car is that dominant.

Imo Lewis should agree to whatever Mercedes offers and enjoy his WDC record. This is a buyers market and not the time to be greedy. Imagine him losing his seat (and record) over this. Just doesnt make sense.

Do you also accept the first offer the car salesman puts in front of you?

[Jolle]

In a word (well two ) Philip Morris.

Philip Morris is one of the companies that, well, difficult to be openly associated with when you drive for a better world. On the other hand, they were the only sponsor to pull the sponsoring from their cars when Bernie decided to race in South Africa while a lot of counties prohibited sports from South Africa because of Apartheid, which as a Swiss company they didn’t have to do.

Also, the sheer number of pies they have their finger in. It is the difference between Nouveau riche and old money.
If you needed someone on your side it would be them (not supporting them, it just is)

Don’t know if old money is the right term.. more old evil I think, with Daimler even older evil.
For motorsport they did make it the sport we know today. Bankrolling a lot of careers during the eighties and nineties. I think at one point they had about half the field under contract (shown by the Marlboro logo with the drivers name in it on the engine cover). Invest in talent, pay your stars well and outspent your rivals on track. It’s just the whole bad health, addiction and a long list of controversies that “slightly” taint it as a sponsor

[Racer X]

Mercedes must be loving being talked about by the media for free all this time just because they havent announced Hamilton. i wonder if they already agreed with Hamilton to make all this drama and then announce his 3 year deal that they already have signed for a moderate amount of money. But they are pretending to fight about one wanting more and the other less then the already agreed deal for the free marketing.

RedBull did that with Albon/Perez they could be taking a page from them and making themselves the talk of the town during all of winter.

[Just_a_fan]

Also I see people arguing that Hamilton is the best marketing value ever and worth every penny of >=50Million. But at the same time it seems to be a well known fact that he doesnt want/like to do promo stuff? Which one is it then? Can't have both.

It's the difference between what others want of him and what he wants for himself. Not that difficult a concept really.