2022 pecking order speculation

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Who comes out on top in the new regs?

Mercedes
117
26%
Red Bull
101
23%
Ferrari
123
28%
McLaren
60
13%
Aston Martin
9
2%
Williams
8
2%
Haas
8
2%
Alfa Romeo
1
0%
Alpine
18
4%
Alpha Tauri
1
0%
 
Total votes: 446

Dee
Dee
4
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:07 am

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

Post

Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:06 pm
LM10 wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:00 pm
Artur Craft wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 12:48 pm
The top four are quite clear in my speculative analysis:
Mercedes_ best PU since ever and an aero department that is double of Red Bull´s, so I can´t see them other than on top and I think they ran with massive sandbags on Bahrain and, despite that, Russel had cornering speeds well above Ferrari´s, and on par with Max

Red Bull_ seems a very stable car and Newey will always deliver. I guess it won´t be able to make up for the PU deficit but I see them just a few tenths behind MGP

Ferrari_ seems like they came up with a decent package but I´m skeptical where it´s enough to challenge the other two

Mclaren_ like Ferrari but doesn´t seem quite as sorted out

From 5th onwards, it´s a lottery imo. The 5th car could easily be Alpine, Toro Rosso, Force India or even the likes of Haas, Williams or Sauber
Can you show me those cornering speeds by any chance?
And also evidence that the Red Bull has a PU deficit. They were certainly on a par last year.
I still don't understand why cornering is an indication of engine when you don't know fuel loads

Imo Honda and Merc will be equal again this year

Have seen nothing so far from Merc powered cars which says they have the better engine

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... each_team/

RB are ahead in every single mini sector time

User avatar
diffuser
158
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:55 pm
Location: Montreal

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

Post

Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:06 pm
LM10 wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:00 pm
Artur Craft wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 12:48 pm
The top four are quite clear in my speculative analysis:
Mercedes_ best PU since ever and an aero department that is double of Red Bull´s, so I can´t see them other than on top and I think they ran with massive sandbags on Bahrain and, despite that, Russel had cornering speeds well above Ferrari´s, and on par with Max

Red Bull_ seems a very stable car and Newey will always deliver. I guess it won´t be able to make up for the PU deficit but I see them just a few tenths behind MGP

Ferrari_ seems like they came up with a decent package but I´m skeptical where it´s enough to challenge the other two

Mclaren_ like Ferrari but doesn´t seem quite as sorted out

From 5th onwards, it´s a lottery imo. The 5th car could easily be Alpine, Toro Rosso, Force India or even the likes of Haas, Williams or Sauber
Can you show me those cornering speeds by any chance?
And also evidence that the Red Bull has a PU deficit. They were certainly on a par last year.
I wonder how the teams can tell from the GPS traces? At some point it's always about how much DF you're running.


Do they look at the acceleration below a certain speed? Cause the higher the speed the more Drag influenced the car is.

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diffuser
158
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:55 pm
Location: Montreal

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

Post

Dee wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:25 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:06 pm
LM10 wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:00 pm


Can you show me those cornering speeds by any chance?
And also evidence that the Red Bull has a PU deficit. They were certainly on a par last year.
I still don't understand why cornering is an indication of engine when you don't know fuel loads

Imo Honda and Merc will be equal again this year

Have seen nothing so far from Merc powered cars which says they have the better engine

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... each_team/

RB are ahead in every single mini sector time
No offense but that data is all cr@p, meaningless. It was gathered over 3 days and 3 evening. Some teams put in more time during the day some teams put more time at night. Some teams didn't put time in on some days and the weather varied significantly from day to day, especial day to evening. Add to that teams were running all kinds of tests were many of the test's goals aren't to be fast but to be consistent from lap to lap.

Dee
Dee
4
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:07 am

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

Post

diffuser wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:34 pm
Dee wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:25 pm
Just_a_fan wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:06 pm

And also evidence that the Red Bull has a PU deficit. They were certainly on a par last year.
I still don't understand why cornering is an indication of engine when you don't know fuel loads

Imo Honda and Merc will be equal again this year

Have seen nothing so far from Merc powered cars which says they have the better engine

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... each_team/

RB are ahead in every single mini sector time
No offense but that data is all cr@p, meaningless. It was gathered over 3 days and 3 evening. Some teams put in more time during the day some teams put more time at night. Some teams didn't put time in on some days and the weather varied significantly from day to day, especial day to evening. Add to that teams were running all kinds of tests were many of the test's goals aren't to be fast but to be consistent from lap to lap.
What's not crap is RB ending P1 in testing. For the last 10 years the top team (other than WIlliams in 2014) hasn't finished lower than P2 in the season. I think we can comfortably say that RB will be fighting for the WDC and WCC.

You can say it's crap and meaningless if it doesn't show your team in a good light

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dans79
245
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2013 6:33 pm
Location: USA

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

Post

Dee wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:38 pm
You can say it's crap and meaningless if it doesn't show your team in a good light
Can we stop with the ying/yang please!


The data is crap, because when you string mini sectors together across multiple days/nights and setups, they become meaningless. Not to mention some teams focus on one corner/complex at a time during testing, literally pushing the car so close to the limit in that one turn, thats they compromise the entry for the next one, in a number of possible ways. The way this data is worded, it's using data from both drivers, no one worth their salt does that.

The data would be more meaningful, if for example it only looked at the fastest mini sectors for each driver in FP1,2,3. In that scenario you attest know that all the drivers have the same goal, get the best lap time possible.
183 103 103 7

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diffuser
158
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:55 pm
Location: Montreal

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

Post

Dee wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:38 pm
diffuser wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:34 pm
Dee wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:25 pm


I still don't understand why cornering is an indication of engine when you don't know fuel loads

Imo Honda and Merc will be equal again this year

Have seen nothing so far from Merc powered cars which says they have the better engine

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... each_team/

RB are ahead in every single mini sector time
No offense but that data is all cr@p, meaningless. It was gathered over 3 days and 3 evening. Some teams put in more time during the day some teams put more time at night. Some teams didn't put time in on some days and the weather varied significantly from day to day, especial day to evening. Add to that teams were running all kinds of tests were many of the test's goals aren't to be fast but to be consistent from lap to lap.
What's not crap is RB ending P1 in testing. For the last 10 years the top team (other than WIlliams in 2014) hasn't finished lower than P2 in the season. I think we can comfortably say that RB will be fighting for the WDC and WCC.

You can say it's crap and meaningless if it doesn't show your team in a good light

Off the top of my head didn't ferrari finish 1st in preseason testing in 2020 ?

This Cracks me up everytime ...



Dee
Dee
4
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:07 am

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

Post

diffuser wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 6:10 pm
Dee wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:38 pm
diffuser wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:34 pm


No offense but that data is all cr@p, meaningless. It was gathered over 3 days and 3 evening. Some teams put in more time during the day some teams put more time at night. Some teams didn't put time in on some days and the weather varied significantly from day to day, especial day to evening. Add to that teams were running all kinds of tests were many of the test's goals aren't to be fast but to be consistent from lap to lap.
What's not crap is RB ending P1 in testing. For the last 10 years the top team (other than WIlliams in 2014) hasn't finished lower than P2 in the season. I think we can comfortably say that RB will be fighting for the WDC and WCC.

You can say it's crap and meaningless if it doesn't show your team in a good light
Off the top of my head didn't ferrari finish 1st in preseason testing in 2020 ?

This Cracks me up everytime ...


https://twitter.com/myarmy9/status/1503 ... _&ref_url=
In 2020, Mercedes were top in testing

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diffuser
158
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:55 pm
Location: Montreal

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

Post

Dee wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 6:23 pm
diffuser wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 6:10 pm
Dee wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:38 pm


What's not crap is RB ending P1 in testing. For the last 10 years the top team (other than WIlliams in 2014) hasn't finished lower than P2 in the season. I think we can comfortably say that RB will be fighting for the WDC and WCC.

You can say it's crap and meaningless if it doesn't show your team in a good light
Off the top of my head didn't ferrari finish 1st in preseason testing in 2020 ?

This Cracks me up everytime ...


https://twitter.com/myarmy9/status/1503 ... _&ref_url=
In 2020, Mercedes were top in testing
The other thing is Barcelona, being an aero track, is more representative of the season. Bahrain is more representative of rear limited tracks. Wonder what the barcelona preseason testing numbers looked like ?

Dee
Dee
4
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:07 am

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

Post

diffuser wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 7:03 pm
Dee wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 6:23 pm
diffuser wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 6:10 pm


Off the top of my head didn't ferrari finish 1st in preseason testing in 2020 ?

This Cracks me up everytime ...


https://twitter.com/myarmy9/status/1503 ... _&ref_url=
In 2020, Mercedes were top in testing
The other thing is Barcelona, being an aero track, is more representative of the season. Bahrain is more representative of rear limited tracks. Wonder what the barcelona preseason testing numbers looked like ?
Ham 19.1, Russell 19.2 on C5

Perez 19.5 on C4. Verstappen 19.7 on C3

This was Mercedes other car spec, RB on slower tyres and no upgrades

prendrefeu
prendrefeu
0
Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:30 am

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Long time reader (8 years ago as a guess), recent 'joiner', first time poster.

1. Red Bull
2. Ferrari

3. Aston Martin
4. Alpine
5. Haas

6. McLaren
7. Alpha Tauri
8. Mercedes
9. Alfa Romeo

10. Williams

Groupings of competitiveness:
1-2 (within 0.1-0.2)
[gap]
3-5 (with in 0.1-0.2)
[gap]
6-9 (with in 0.1-0.2)
[massive gap]
10

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diffuser
158
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:55 pm
Location: Montreal

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

Post

Dee wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 8:31 pm
diffuser wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 7:03 pm
Dee wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 6:23 pm


In 2020, Mercedes were top in testing
The other thing is Barcelona, being an aero track, is more representative of the season. Bahrain is more representative of rear limited tracks. Wonder what the barcelona preseason testing numbers looked like ?
Ham 19.1, Russell 19.2 on C5

Perez 19.5 on C4. Verstappen 19.7 on C3

This was Mercedes other car spec, RB on slower tyres and no upgrades

These are all the sub 1:20 fastest laps I could find. if there were 2 by 1 driver I took the highest.

I still don't buy any of this BTW.
LH 1:19.138
GR 1:19.233
SP 1:19.556
LN 1:19.568
CL 1:19.689
MV 1:19.756
SV 1:19.824
PG 1:19.918

Dee
Dee
4
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:07 am

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

Post

diffuser wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:59 pm
Dee wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 8:31 pm
diffuser wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 7:03 pm


The other thing is Barcelona, being an aero track, is more representative of the season. Bahrain is more representative of rear limited tracks. Wonder what the barcelona preseason testing numbers looked like ?
Ham 19.1, Russell 19.2 on C5

Perez 19.5 on C4. Verstappen 19.7 on C3

This was Mercedes other car spec, RB on slower tyres and no upgrades

These are all the sub 1:20 fastest laps I could find. if there were 2 by 1 driver I took the highest.

I still don't buy any of this BTW.
LH 1:19.138
GR 1:19.233
SP 1:19.556
LN 1:19.568
CL 1:19.689
MV 1:19.756
SV 1:19.824
PG 1:19.918
The ones I put down were day 3 top times, if you want to find the tyre choice and day for the other times, post with that updated info

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Artur Craft
40
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:50 pm

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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LM10 wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:00 pm
Can you show me those cornering speeds by any chance?
I watched quite a few hours of the Bahrain testings and paid attention to the speedometer info when the drivers were clearly on quick laps. For instance, Russel and Max could do the fast right-hander(the quickest corner of the track) at about 200 kph while Sainz could do a max of 183 kph. All of those observed on very quick laps of each driver

edit: that twitter thread by "Driven by Data" sort of back up my impression/observation

JPower
JPower
35
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:06 am

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Artur Craft wrote:
Wed Mar 16, 2022 7:07 pm
LM10 wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:00 pm
Can you show me those cornering speeds by any chance?
I watched quite a few hours of the Bahrain testings and paid attention to the speedometer info when the drivers were clearly on quick laps. For instance, Russel and Max could do the fast right-hander(the quickest corner of the track) at about 200 kph while Sainz could do a max of 183 kph. All of those observed on very quick laps of each driver

edit: that twitter thread by "Driven by Data" sort of back up my impression/observation
On the same tires and fuel level I seriously doubt there will be a 17kph difference in any corner between any of the cars.

LM10
LM10
102
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:07 pm

Re: 2022 pecking order speculation

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Artur Craft wrote:
Wed Mar 16, 2022 7:07 pm
LM10 wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:00 pm
Can you show me those cornering speeds by any chance?
I watched quite a few hours of the Bahrain testings and paid attention to the speedometer info when the drivers were clearly on quick laps. For instance, Russel and Max could do the fast right-hander(the quickest corner of the track) at about 200 kph while Sainz could do a max of 183 kph. All of those observed on very quick laps of each driver

edit: that twitter thread by "Driven by Data" sort of back up my impression/observation
I think your method of watching the speedometer live during random laps in testing is predestined to be flawed.

As for the tweet, I don’t know how that person ended up with that ranking, but whoever thinks that Ferrari is in the midfield at best when it comes to cornering, is in for a surprise pretty soon. Can’t take that ranking seriously, to be honest. :)