MadMax wrote: ↑
Thu Nov 03, 2022 4:39 pm
hollus wrote: ↑
Thu Nov 03, 2022 3:23 pm
If we are willing to accept that any potential advantage gained has a carry on to following years (which I think it has to some extent) then it follows that the disadvantage from the penalty is not a one time thing, but it will also carry on to following years, it won’t be just “a one time thing”.
The important question is whether the punishment "resets" the advantage gained from any alleged wrongdoing. If they gained, for example, 0.5s from the wrongdoing but the punishment limits their potential gain over the next 12 months to 0.3s, the other teams would need to be able to gain 0.8s over the next 12 months to be back at level with them. That would be a big gain to find for those other teams in one season. So the original gain is more than the punishment removes and the team have a nett benefit from their financial misdemeanour. If the other teams can easily find 1s over the next 12 months then the punishment would be just that - a punishment.
It is just rhetorics that the advantage gained will carry on for years, it should diminish rather quickly.
If we take the full 2 million breach as additional development and an average development budget of 10-12 million(as stated by binotto iirc) that would be about a 2 month advantage gained.
Any advantage will dilute naturally over time, because teams monitor and copy each other closely. So catching up the two months will (if they do a good job) take less than two months, because the educating effect of seeing what RB has done.
Of course e.g Mercedes has more catching up to do because they took a wrong development path for 2022(and persisted on it).
Furthermore there is the diminishing returns effect. So the 2 million is not truly two months. It is additional development, but without additional validation. There was no extra cfd, wind tunnel or track time. So it was less efficient.
Now the other teams have a relative advantage in wind tunnel time, and they have been shown the right direction. Now they 'simply' need to do a good job. Because cheating or not, RB still did a great job developing in the right direction. Ferrari was the only team that was less than 2 months behind(and maybe even ahead except for some floor issue)