2023 pecking order predictions

[gcdugas]

Car only (until Barcelona)
1/2 Red Bull and Ferrari
3 Mercedes +0.20 gap, +0.20 total
4/5 Alpine and McLaren +0.25 gap, +0.45 total
6 Aston Martin +0.15 gap, +0.60 total
7 Alpha Tauri +0.1 gap, +0.70 total
8 Alfa Romeo +0.15 gap, +0.85 total
9 Haas +0.20 sec gap, +1.05 total
10 Williams +0.25 gap, +1.40 total

Combined car and driver
1/2 Max and Charles even, +0.0 total
3/4 Checo and Carlos +0.15 gap, +0.15 total
5/6 Lewis and Russell +0.1 gap, +0.25 total
7 Lando +0.20 gap, +0.45 total
8 Ocon +0.15 gap, +0.60 total
9 Alonso +0.05 gap, +0.65 total
10 Gasly +0.1 gap, +0.75 total
11 Piastri +0.05 gap, +0.80 total
12 de Vries +0.1 gap, +0.90 total (a suprise!)
13/14 Lance/Bottas +0.05 gap, +0.95 total
15/16 Tsunoda/Hulkenberg +0.1 gap, +1.05 total
17/18 Magnussen/Albon +0.1 gap, +1.15 total
19 Guanyu +0.1 gap, +1.25 total
20 Sargeant +0.2 gap, +1.45 total

[fourmula1]

Here are my three scenarios in order of most likely. Meaning if any of the three happen I wont be surprised.

1. I’m expecting RB to be dominant. I am not a fan of the team and their attitudes, but I do expect them to have the fastest car on Sunday. Even if the races appear close 3-10 second gaps…they’ll be winning them all.

2. Ferrari finds power gains, tire wear gains, and is an absolute beast on the straights. Narrowly beating out RB.

3. RB sold out last season, cost cap penalties effect them more than expected, MB and Ferrari find major gains they were missing last year and its a close call between the top three teams.

From there…the usual suspects performing well depending on the track. Norris, Alonso, Bottas, Albon, etc.

[101FlyingDutchman]

Bold prediction for quali timings
FER
RB +0.1/0.2s
Merc 0.4s
Alpine/AM 0.6s
McLaren/Haas 0.75s
AT/AR 0.85s
Williams 1.2s

[F1Krof]

1. RBR




2. Ferrari

3. Mercedes
4. McLaren
5. Alpine
6. Alpha Tauri
7. Aston Martin
8. Alfa Romeo
9. Haas
10. Williams

[VLay14]

1. Mercedes - they have the resources and talent to bounce back in 2023
2. RBR - strong chance of competing this year for sure and definite contender for the title
3. Ferrari - banking on their promising lineup
4. McLaren - a force to be reckoned with in 2023
5. Alpine - flashes of competitiveness
6. Aston Martin
7. AlphaTauri
8. Alfa Romeo
9. Haas
10. Williams

[McL-H]

I think that rather than having a top 10 pecking order, the grid can be divided into 3 groups this year of cars being similarly close to each other. With no real number 1 in either of these 3 groups, but instead teams switching order positions within their respective group depending on the characteristics of the track. I expect some teams to be able to challenge the teams in the higher group occasionally. So McLaren to be able to fight for example Ferrari on a particular track or Sauber to fight McLaren on some particular track. I think delta’s will be much smaller. More like 2021 than 2022.

1-3:
Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari

4-6:
McLaren, Alpine, Aston Martin

7-10
Sauber, Alpha Tauri, Haas, Williams

[Sevach]

[continuum16]

Given that the field seems to be split into three concepts, I would expect that we could see quite a bit of fluctuation between tracks.

7 - Downwashing ramp sidepods with sizable undercut: RB, Alpine, McLaren, Alfa, Aston, AlphaTauri, Williams

2 - Coke bottle shape with high sidepod shoulders: Ferrari, Haas

1 - Whatever Mercedes is up to these days

Obviously (you’d think) Ferrari will be be ahead of Haas, so we have to re-order the large group. I see that as:

RB
Aston/Alpine
McLaren
Alfa
Williams/AlphaTauri

At the start of the season, Haas is usually 1s off Ferrari and it grows from there. If Ferrari is half a second ahead of the field (doubtful IMO), they will be 4th. If Ferrari is half a second off the top, they will be backmarkers.

I would guess that at some tracks Ferrari/Haas will make jumps compared to the main pack given their concept is so different, but on average I don’t think Ferrari will be ahead of RB. So I guess I’d say:

RB
Ferrari
Merc

Aston/Alpine
Mclaren

Haas/Alfa

Williams/AlphaTauri

[FrukostScones]

Ferrari

RedBull

Mercedes
Aston Martin
McLaren

Alpine
Haas
Ala Romeo
Toro Rosso
Williams

[3.r.i.i.i]

Red Bull

Ferrari




far away Merc

[DChemTech]

Interesting to see some radical new concepts still rather than everyone just going for RB-style stuff. Will it really shake things up? Going by history, probably not, but I'll just go for a rather unlikely pecking order that, if it materializes, would make for a good season (although a different pecking order is of course no guarantee for good races). So here we go:

1) AM/Alonso
2) RB
3) Ferrari
4) AM/Stroll
5) Renault (even if they have something similar to AM and that concept turns out to be excellent, I expect them to ruin it, somehow)
6) Williams
7) MB (as said - I'll go for unlikely; this is probably one of those things that can turn 50 cents into 50 million cents at a bookmarker if it turns out true)
8 ) Haas
9) AR
10) McL
11) AT (it just looks so boring)

So as good as confirmed then Just Alpine doing a lot worse than expected, and McL doing a lot better

(and of course nothing will change after this anymore)

[etusch]

I was expecting this

1/2 Redbull Ferrari ( winner Redbull )

3 Alphine
4/5 Aston Martin / Mclaren / mercedes (winner Aston Martin)
6/7 Mercedes / Williams
7/8 Williams / AlphaTauri /AlphaRomeo
8 / 9 AlphaTauri /AlphaRomeo
10 Haas

[Spoutnik]

After cleaning up the lap times from yersteday I tried to look at the average pace of everyone on long runs





The data from the afternoon (the others are in the tweet)



AM is looking very good (their runs were much longer than these of the others)

[etusch]

So you say that Alonso had right decision this time.

[PlatinumZealot]

He played it in reverse. Join a team that Vettel has left. They must come good on Vettel's residual good luck.