2023 pecking order predictions

[selvam_e2002]

1. Red Bull








2. Mercedes
3. Ferrari
4. McLaren
5. Everyone else

The cost cap "punishment" won't really have an impact on the '23 car for RB so they'll walk next year's championship, but '24 might be a bit closer. Mercedes probably were the most improved team of '22 so I'd put them as clear number 2 for next year. Ferrari will probably have a decent car, but I can't see the operational issues disappearing overnight.

It certainly will impact their in season development.

The budget cap should not exceeded by any team but RB did so how can they can keep up with penalty? I don't think so.

[chrisc90]

The budget cap should not exceeded by any team but RB did so how can they can keep up with penalty? I don't think so.

I guess there is a 0.5-0.7 gap in race pace that the other teams need to close up first.

[jordanb]

1. Red Bull








2. Mercedes
3. Ferrari
4. McLaren
5. Everyone else

The cost cap "punishment" won't really have an impact on the '23 car for RB so they'll walk next year's championship, but '24 might be a bit closer. Mercedes probably were the most improved team of '22 so I'd put them as clear number 2 for next year. Ferrari will probably have a decent car, but I can't see the operational issues disappearing overnight.

It certainly will impact their in season development.

It won't hurt them for 2023 as their development has gone ahead as planned since summer break this year. Usually, by July teams would start focusing on next year's car. If anything, it would hurt the start of 2024 challenger as by July 2023, they would have used up most of the aero time for 2023 car while Mercedes and Ferrari would have relatively more time. If they manage to retain the performance margin which they had at the end of this season, for the start of 2023, then once again they may start focusing on 2024 early and negate the impact of penalty.

From a budget perspective, despite having more aero time, both Mercedes and Ferrari have less money than Red Bull as RB had less damages in 2022 than the other two. Money would be a limiting factor for the other two.

Besides, it's all about having the right design choices and efficient development path for 2023 cars. If others struggle at the start of the year, then it's going make life easier for RB.

[Cs98]

1. Red Bull








2. Mercedes
3. Ferrari
4. McLaren
5. Everyone else

The cost cap "punishment" won't really have an impact on the '23 car for RB so they'll walk next year's championship, but '24 might be a bit closer. Mercedes probably were the most improved team of '22 so I'd put them as clear number 2 for next year. Ferrari will probably have a decent car, but I can't see the operational issues disappearing overnight.

It certainly will impact their in season development.

It won't hurt them for 2023 as their development has gone ahead as planned since summer break this year. Usually, by July teams would start focusing on next year's car. If anything, it would hurt the start of 2024 challenger as by July 2023, they would have used up most of the aero time for 2023 car while Mercedes and Ferrari would have relatively more time. If they manage to retain the performance margin which they had at the end of this season, for the start of 2023, then once again they may start focusing on 2024 early and negate the impact of penalty.

From a budget perspective, despite having more aero time, both Mercedes and Ferrari have less money than Red Bull as RB had less damages in 2022 than the other two. Money would be a limiting factor for the other two.

Besides, it's all about having the right design choices and efficient development path for 2023 cars. If others struggle at the start of the year, then it's going make life easier for RB.

Thus “in season development”.

They will continue developing the 2023 car in the wind tunnel from here until around the mid point of the 23 season. All of that development will certainly be impacted by the reduction in wind tunnel time.

[jordanb]

It certainly will impact their in season development.

It won't hurt them for 2023 as their development has gone ahead as planned since summer break this year. Usually, by July teams would start focusing on next year's car. If anything, it would hurt the start of 2024 challenger as by July 2023, they would have used up most of the aero time for 2023 car while Mercedes and Ferrari would have relatively more time. If they manage to retain the performance margin which they had at the end of this season, for the start of 2023, then once again they may start focusing on 2024 early and negate the impact of penalty.

From a budget perspective, despite having more aero time, both Mercedes and Ferrari have less money than Red Bull as RB had less damages in 2022 than the other two. Money would be a limiting factor for the other two.

Besides, it's all about having the right design choices and efficient development path for 2023 cars. If others struggle at the start of the year, then it's going make life easier for RB.

Thus “in season development”.

They will continue developing the 2023 car in the wind tunnel from here until around the mid point of the 23 season. All of that development will certainly be impacted by the reduction in wind tunnel time.

I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see that impact on track. Let's see.

[carisi2k]

While Mercedes and Ferrari have more wind tunnel time they don't have much more and they still have the same salary cap. The 23 cars won't be completely new like the 22 cars were and Mercedes have a lot of time to make up on red bull and Ferrari have to make sure they have a reliable power unit. Both teams have a lot more work to do then Red Bull does to have a competitive championship capable challenger.

[selvam_e2002]

Just follow RB foot print to use more money. simple solution.

[jordanb]

Just follow RB foot print to use more money. simple solution.

If only money could buy performance. Despite spending almost same amount as Red Bull, minus 400k or 2 million whichever is convenient, Mercedes came out with a dud and a second a lap behind. If a team doesn't have right ideas or misadventure into a wrong direction, money is not going to take them anywhere.

But it's a risk worth taking. If the ideas are right, it's great and if they err, then they are going to slide backwards very fast with a bad car and aero penalty.

[chrisc90]

Wonder how many teams will be over budget this year giving what we seen last year. I dont think itll be as forgiving this year

[JordanMugen]

Ferrari after correction will be a force again. they have a fast car and fast driver. ruling them out will be a stupidity.

Of course!

The great thing about the new season is nobody knows! Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes are likely to all be front runners... but in what precise order?

I guess it seems unlikely that likes of Aston Martin, Alpine or McLaren will join the ranks of winners but you never know. There was always the hope that "this will be the year" for the likes of Jaguar-Cosworth or Toyota, so these teams likely have similar hopes! It would be great to see them each winning a race (or more) on merit or fluke... But, similarly, we will see!

There is even the chances that the likes of AlphaTauri, HAAS, Alfa Romeo or Williams could make a bigger step than expected and be surprisingly competitive (at least at some tracks, if not at all tracks)!

So my prediction for the 2023 F1 season is that I refuse to make a prediction as I have no idea, lol. I'm guessing we will mostly see cars that are evolutions from most teams, but there might be one, two or three teams that reveal radically revised vehicles too, so that's a point of interest too.

I think simply Mercedes fixing their rear suspension ought to significantly help Aston Martin and Williams who share the same suspension as well. So we might see big steps from both Aston and Williams.

Also people are too quick to judge based on position. "Oh Williams are last that's no good." Well they are last, but only 2 seconds off pole at times. Nothing like Minardi being 5 seconds off pace. Williams only need to find 0.5s (which they already did at many 2022 qualifying sessions on occasions other teams didn't execute qualifying correctly) and Williams can gain 7-8 grid positions and sometimes even qualify the top 10 (indeed they already did at times)!

[ME4ME]

Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari mixed results.

4. Alpine (Car was already good. Reliability will deliver points)
5. Aston Martin (Real progress is being made)

Mclaren (Don't see them progressing), Alfa Romeo Sauber, HAAS

Alpha Tauri

Williams (Falling even further back)

[Sisyphus_1]

Lots of faith in Mercedes from many posters.

They have a huge deficit to overcome and they started and finished the season with the same deficit to RB.

Some of that is down to RB ending the season fairly overweight due to using old parts, so with the new chassis and the RB19 coming in on the weight target, Merc need to recoup the 22 season deficit plus another 3 tenths.

Assuming RB don't drop the ball that is.

The other elephant in the room is the rear suspension of the Merc. They not only need to implement new floor, new wings and possibly modified sidepods to manage the flow structures to the beam wing, but they also need an entirely new rear suspension setup and likely gearbox casing to boot.

If they do it they deserve to be crowned kings of the milkyway galaxy, but it's doubtful.

I'm going to go with:
1. RB
2. SF
3. MB
4.Alpine
5. AM
6. Mclaren

[AR3-GP]

If they do it they deserve to be crowned kings of the milkyway galaxy, but it's doubtful.

I share a similar sentiment.

If we simply assume Rb and Ferrari will not only stand still, but also plunge backwards, while we presume Mercedes have the perfect winter where they retool the entire car and the power unit and find seconds of performance, Merc will be back.

But why would we presume any of that?

[jordanb]

If they do it they deserve to be crowned kings of the milkyway galaxy, but it's doubtful.

I share a similar sentiment.

If we simply assume Rb and Ferrari will not only stand still, but also plunge backwards, while we presume Mercedes have the perfect winter where they retool the entire car and the power unit and find seconds of performance, Merc will be back.

But why would we presume any of that?

It definitely is a herculean task for Mercedes and nowhere near as easy as one could possibly think. Once a team loses plot on new aero regulations, coming back is always a tough ask. In an era of cost cap, losing staff to competitors and having a competitor that is generally ahead on aero expertise, it is going to be tough for a come back. 2023 also has significant changes that takes downforce off the cars, critically, from the floor. Whenever there is a hit on floor, Mercedes has found it handful to manage it. So there are multiple challenges to overcome to be on par with the competition. This might sound crazy and on the extreme end of the negative spectrum, but I wouldn't be surprised if Mercedes starts Bahrain with one full second deficit. Best case scenario would be a 3 tenths deficit if all stars align perfectly.

[ME4ME]

Interesting to read the above opinions. I'm inclined to think the exact opposite.
There is the Mercedes-perspective and the obstacles that they need to overcome, but there is also the Red Bull perspective and a couple of very strong reasons why I think they might fail to defend their championships.

1. Windtunnel+CFD handicap over handicap. The term data-driven is not appriciated enough imo. It will hurt the WCC leader.
2. Driver line-up. Red Bull is strategically strong but they lack a competitive 2nd car/driver. Mercedes are in my opinion the best team at converting car-potential to points. Just look at 2022. It will soon turn 2-against-1 again, like in 2021 but with an even better 2nd Mercedes driver.
3. Since a number of years Mercedes has been equally as strong as Red Bull in chassis and aero performance. They may have been carried by a better PU until lets say 2018 but they have been mostly equally impressive since. Like Toto said in their 2022 new year video, you don't suddenly become incompetent over a 4 months period between 21-22. They made a mistake but will surely correct it.

Red Bull might be 5 tenths in front of Mercedes on pure qualifying pace the first race, but long season + declining performance advantage + pace-to-points converting disadvantage. I think it will be close.