Mercedes W14 Speculation Thread

[Cs98]

Has merc shot themselves in the foot by not going the ferrari way with the engine?
Both teams knew pretty soon that it wasn't going to be their year. Ferrari pushed its engine but has now 30hp extra coming for 23, while merc had a solid engine in terms of reliability in 2022, but I'm afraid nothing big is coming for 23...
Your thoughts?

I don't see that happening. Ferrari might return to their "peak power" in 2022 (sort of like Spain, Miami, Baku time), which was more than what they were running at the end, but not 30HP more. 30HP is several years of real engine development. Next year is supposed to be a reliability fix, not a performance upgrade. If their engine becomes more powerful than it ever was in 2022 it's obviously a performance upgrade.

The story (according to Italian motorsport.com) goes that Ferrari’s PU1 in 2022 was already running in a more conservative mode, with ~15 bhp less than its maximum potential. They then supposedly backed it off even more - equivalent to another ~15 bhp - after it became clear that the engines kept blowing up.

So the theory is that this means there’s a further 30 bhp to come vs how Ferrari were running the engine in, say, Spa; it would be 15 bhp up on how it ran in, say, Bahrain (or apparently Monza or Abu Dhabi where they turned it up to the original settings again).

Ferrari were running their engines conservatively at the start of the season. Then around Miami time they introduced PU2 which was supposed to be "full power". Then their engines started blowing up in the next few races, which meant they de-tuned the engine again. So 30HP... I seriously doubt it. They might return to that "full power" they had with PU2. Anyways, this is getting a bit off topic.

[Goblin42]

https://scontent-frt3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/ ... e=63B73E24

Oh this is just the W10/W12 show car from the Las vegas GP event last month

https://i.imgur.com/knCfFQl.png

The sidepods look W11

It's an abomination made from spare parts of the w10/11/12, the floor is extended like pr-2021 but she has the engine cover bulge introduced with the W12, she's just a show car for promotional events and rocking the 2022 livery

[Goblin42]

https://www.gpblog.com/en/news/170525/w ... rises.html

So was W13, with nasty ones...

A bit perplexed that they dare to make a statement like this, after their 2022 campaign. It shows confidence but that's what they had also ahead of the '22 season

yaa it's pretty tricky , if the W14 actually becomes dominating in 2023, the rumours will surface again about Merc lobbying in the background for the floor edge/throat rule change for 2023

one thing that i'm sure of is that with the new liberty leadership, they'll do everything in their power to stop domination, because as stephano said *Domination becomes boring and drives fans away with time*

i'm not that optimistic about the W14 while taking in mind how much development time mercedes lost for the first races trying to iron out the qwerks of the W13

while RB & Ferrari were pushing for performance mercedes had to *de-power their car* and head into a new development path, and i have to say congrats to them for getting a pole & a win from having a 1 second pace deference at the start of the season

[continuum16]

https://www.gpblog.com/en/news/170525/w ... rises.html

So was W13, with nasty ones...

A bit perplexed that they dare to make a statement like this, after their 2022 campaign. It shows confidence but that's what they had also ahead of the '22 season

yaa it's pretty tricky , if the W14 actually becomes dominating in 2023, the rumours will surface again about Merc lobbying in the background for the floor edge/throat rule change for 2023

one thing that i'm sure of is that with the new liberty leadership, they'll do everything in their power to stop domination, because as stephano said *Domination becomes boring and drives fans away with time*

i'm not that optimistic about the W14 while taking in mind how much development time mercedes lost for the first races trying to iron out the qwerks of the W13

while RB & Ferrari were pushing for performance mercedes had to *de-power their car* and head into a new development path, and i have to say congrats to them for getting a pole & a win from having a 1 second pace deference at the start of the season

The success of the W14 will hinge exclusively on whether or not they understood what made the W13 poor. The race team did a good job, as you said, to get a pole and a win out of it.

Still not convinced how much of their development was actual progress and how much was track-specific. Hamilton was 0.7s off the pole in both Bahrain (actually 0.5s off the pole time if using his Q2 lap) and in Abu Dhabi (still 0.5s off Leclerc, so even if RB’s development explains this, Ferrari didn’t develop nearly as much), so it’s not like they solved everything.

Simulations and WT data said the W13 would be much faster, indicating a correlation issue. If they haven’t solved this then they’re just taking shots in the dark, with merely the knowledge that “we can’t make the W13 again” and not much else.

Perhaps the team’s history of running low even in the high-rake era will give them some advantage with the raised floor edges? Although I could also see this being a temptation that could ultimately mislead them.

[f1jcw]

Simulations and WT data said the W13 would be much faster, indicating a correlation issue.

I'd disagree with this. If certain parameters come to light, eg: porpoising, that has not being programmed into the simulator, then it isn't a correlation issues, it is just that they have not being factored in and tools need developing that can pickup this new phenomena

[chrisc90]

Simulations and WT data said the W13 would be much faster, indicating a correlation issue.

I'd disagree with this. If certain parameters come to light, eg: porpoising, that has not being programmed into the simulator, then it isn't a correlation issues, it is just that they have not being factored in and tools need developing that can pickup this new phenomena

I somewhat agree with the first quoted post. We heard Mercedes say that their upgrades through the season would bring a second a lap, or half a second on numerous occasions. Come the end of the season and we are still waiting for that time to become evident.

If the claims they made were true, you wouldn't see them being 0.5 to Ferrari and 0.7 to Red Bull in Dubai at the end of the season.

The porpoising was very quickly sorted out by the teams within the first handful of races. What simulations showed pre race weekend and in reality nobody knows

[f1jcw]

. We heard Mercedes say that their upgrades through the season would bring a second a lap, or half a second on numerous occasions.

Strange. I’m a Merc fan and never heard them make such statements

[chrisc90]

. We heard Mercedes say that their upgrades through the season would bring a second a lap, or half a second on numerous occasions.

Strange. I’m a Merc fan and never heard them make such statements

https://the-race.com/formula-1/mercedes ... -a-second/

Not to mention the countless references to upgrades gaining time in the W13 thread if you read/search back over.

[f1jcw]

. We heard Mercedes say that their upgrades through the season would bring a second a lap, or half a second on numerous occasions.

Strange. I’m a Merc fan and never heard them make such statements

https://the-race.com/formula-1/mercedes ... -a-second/

Not to mention the countless references to upgrades gaining time in the W13 thread if you read/search back over.

The quote in that link is.

Asked how much quicker he thought Mercedes would have been in Bahrain had it started the season with the current version of its W13, Russell said: “Definitely well over a second, I would say.

This is not saying they are bringing a second a lap at different GPs through updates. this is saying if they took the car in Brazil to Bahrain it would have being a second faster, that’s not such a wild claim after a years worth of development, I’m sure other teams would say similar.

[pursue_one's]

Toto Wolff said that the new car on an aesthetic level will not deviate much from the W13 that won only in Brazil with George Russell in 2022

As team principal Toto Wolff anticipated, the 2023 Mercedes will in some ways be 'identical' to the W13 - at least that is the impression the Austrian manager got during the first wind tunnel simulations - but as the number one of the Brackley team's wall stressed, the W14 "will be full of surprises" that are not seen on the bottom of the single-seater and beyond. Today's edition of La Gazzetta dello Sport goes into detail about what could be the new weapons at Mercedes 2023's disposal. "The gearbox will be a profound evolution of the previous one, with a different arrangement of the rear suspension's internal parts," reads the analysis by Paolo Filisetti.

The 'zero flanks' concept in mid-season seemed like it could be shelved to follow Red Bull's philosophy, but after the effectiveness of the latest evolutionary package brought to the United States and Mexico, the engineers led by Mike Elliott decided to give their choice another chance at the level of design philosophy. Mercedes in 2022 despite running with an often very unloaded rear wing has manifested a gap in top speed against Ferrari and Red Bull. That is why in Brixworth the power unit department tried to improve the internal combustion to get more power thanks also to a new synthetic fuel developed by Petronas, which in 2022 most likely was not at the level of Shell and Exxon-Mobil with biofuel.

"At the power unit level, then, the engineers led by Hywel Thomas, who recently performed the first power unit firing, are convinced that the performance is in line with that of Honda and Ferrari. A massive effort has been made to optimize combustion, in cooperation with Petronas, while also improving fuel consumption, thanks to a new synthetic fuel formulation," the Rosea concludes.

- Translate DeepL

Source: Mercedes 2023: Petronas 2.0, cambio e sospensione le armi della W14
https://www.formulapassion.it/motorspor ... power-unit

[Vaexa]

Fuel and engine oil were homologated at the start of the 2022 season (march 1) so I can't help but wonder how Petronas intend to bring new fuel.

[continuum16]

Simulations and WT data said the W13 would be much faster, indicating a correlation issue.

I'd disagree with this. If certain parameters come to light, eg: porpoising, that has not being programmed into the simulator, then it isn't a correlation issues, it is just that they have not being factored in and tools need developing that can pickup this new phenomena

I see your point but correlation issues simply means the simulation and the reality don’t match. As you mentioned, they failed to account for (at least) porpoising. My point is this: how do we know that A) they have rectified this in order to account for porpoising, and B) how do we know they haven’t missed anything else?

In reality they won’t know until the W14 goes out for a shakedown IMO.

We have seen most teams like McLaren, Ferrari, Williams, etc. lose correlation (over the last decade alone) and it can cost them anywhere from a few races to multiple years.

Maybe the late season update’s effectiveness is a sign of progress or even a full solution, but that was one update. We’ll need a larger sample size (like a new car) to know if it was a fluke or not.

[chrisc90]

Seen a good few rumours floating round the websites that visually the car is very much the same. However the underneath, the floor, rear suspension together with the gearbox and aero 'map' are very much different.

So that could point towards a different rear suspension style and a different floor underneath.

Im not sure how much room their zero pod design allows them to expand under the engine cover outwards whilst keeping within the regulation windows.

[Venturiation]

Fuel and engine oil were homologated at the start of the 2022 season (march 1) so I can't help but wonder how Petronas intend to bring new fuel.

I have seen multiple reports saying this , but other ones saying fuel can still be changed, maybe once a year like the chassis?

[f1jcw]

Simulations and WT data said the W13 would be much faster, indicating a correlation issue.

I'd disagree with this. If certain parameters come to light, eg: porpoising, that has not being programmed into the simulator, then it isn't a correlation issues, it is just that they have not being factored in and tools need developing that can pickup this new phenomena

I see your point but correlation issues simply means the simulation and the reality don’t match. As you mentioned, they failed to account for (at least) porpoising. My point is this: how do we know that A) they have rectified this in order to account for porpoising, and B) how do we know they haven’t missed anything else?

In reality they won’t know until the W14 goes out for a shakedown IMO.

I think there has being statements that they was testing triggering it in the last races, and was able to simulate it with their new tools. But

The last paragraph of your quoted text always holds true.