RB20 speculation

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Emag
Emag
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Re: RB20 speculation

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Chuckjr wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2023 6:41 pm
Emag wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:48 pm

RB20 will very likely be a very competitive machine, but I would be surprised if they continue on with the sort of dominance they displayed this season.
Lol. You remind me of what Ferrari fans were saying after the Mercedes annihilation of everyone in 2014. Their dominance lasted 7 long years thereafter. Just keep telling yourself it won’t happen with RB. 🤦‍♂️ Their retaining Checo’s sub-standard services should be all the evidence needed to render their confidence walking into 2024.

Get ready for an even higher level of dominance.
RedBull whitewashed the competition this year. Discount Singapore, nobody stood a chance on any race.

Mercedes was dominant, yes, but not really that dominant. If it weren't for Ferrari's incompetence and Sebastian's errors, they could have challenged for a title in both 2017 and 2018.

RedBull can, and will most likely be the top force in 2024. But will they win every race again? I don't think so, but to each their own.

Margins are much smaller in the current formula. We haven't reached the wall of diminishing returns yet, but as the concepts converged last year we saw how close everyone got. Speculations at the moment suggest RedBull is bringing a revolutionary car for next year, which could mean many things really.

Are they completely ditching the concept which pretty much the entire grid agreed to follow last year? Or are they just building around it in a way which elevates the platform to a whole new level?

Revolution could mean many things, so I would not be surprised if on the surface, we have a similar looking car from RedBull next year.

I expect it to be like Mercedes 2015 -> 2016.
From the outside, they looked similar. But the 2016 car was a lot faster than its predecessor.

OnEcRiTiCaL
OnEcRiTiCaL
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Re: RB20 speculation

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organic wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2023 5:44 pm
Horner confirming much of what I suspected for a long time already. Also would be in line with what James Allison said recently. With a 4-year cycle and a budget cap, producing a clean slate new car each year makes less sense..
Christian Horner: The RB19 is already a piece of history, what we have achieved with this car is simply incredible. There are many things that were carried over from the RB18, part of the chassis, the suspension is the same, the gearbox is also exactly the same. Probably, 60% of the car ran last year as well.
So my expectation is that the RB20 will be a clean slate design that'll carry over few components from the RB19 and it'll be developed into the 2025 car
Lol he is lying 🤥. I mean they had the same chassis maybe at connection points,but they used different carbon layout and stuffs to be 5kg lighter.Also under the cover they had different organisation for oil cooler. So they definitely made a new one. The suspension also new at front and rear. The RB18 suspension from up view was align straight and the RB19 is not. They had totally different front nose,they engine cover, sidepods, floor also different. Where connect the nose to the monocoque, the shape is also different and the place of suspension wishbone. It was a long time ago February so I can't remember at lot of stuff fir sure, but the car changed a lot.

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organic
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Re: RB20 speculation

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OnEcRiTiCaL wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2023 7:08 pm
organic wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2023 5:44 pm
Horner confirming much of what I suspected for a long time already. Also would be in line with what James Allison said recently. With a 4-year cycle and a budget cap, producing a clean slate new car each year makes less sense..
Christian Horner: The RB19 is already a piece of history, what we have achieved with this car is simply incredible. There are many things that were carried over from the RB18, part of the chassis, the suspension is the same, the gearbox is also exactly the same. Probably, 60% of the car ran last year as well.
So my expectation is that the RB20 will be a clean slate design that'll carry over few components from the RB19 and it'll be developed into the 2025 car
Lol he is lying 🤥. I mean they had the same chassis maybe at connection points,but they used different carbon layout and stuffs to be 5kg lighter.Also under the cover they had different organisation for oil cooler. So they definitely made a new one. The suspension also new at front and rear. The RB18 suspension from up view was align straight and the RB19 is not. They had totally different front nose,they engine cover, sidepods, floor also different. Where connect the nose to the monocoque, the shape is also different and the place of suspension wishbone. It was a long time ago February so I can't remember at lot of stuff fir sure, but the car changed a lot.
He says part of the chassis is the same. By suspension he most likely means the inboard elements. The rear suspension did change yes it is canted rearwards on the rb19 whereas it was aligned with the y axis before. However, Waché has also said similar to Horner in interviewers with small french outlets, but he'd be lying too right? Some sort of systematic attempt to lie to everyone. :lol:

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Chuckjr
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Re: RB20 speculation

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Emag wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:48 pm
Mercedes was dominant, yes, but not really that dominant. If it weren't for Ferrari's incompetence and Sebastian's errors, they could have challenged for a title in both 2017 and 2018.
Come on man. Yes they were. Mercedes annihilated everyone for years. They were turning the engine down for the first two years, likely three. Ferrari was cheating with their fuel system, and that’s the only reason they showed any competitive times. It wasn’t Vettel, it wasn’t better design, it was cheating. Ferrari was over Vettel’s head anyway. He had delusions of grandeur thinking he, like Schumacher before him, would bring the team back. It’s embarrassing what happened with him at Ferrari, actually. It only rendered the dominance he held for four years at RB was because he was in a RB car that suited his driving style perfectly. The end. Lewis will have similar concerns as his career comes to an end.
Emag wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:48 pm
Margins are much smaller in the current formula. We haven't reached the wall of diminishing returns yet, but as the concepts converged last year we saw how close everyone got.
Nobody better in the paddock than Newey and his team as far as debunking the margin of diminishing returns. They will find time until the end of 2025 just like they did until the end of 2013. As far as other teams catching up as the 2023 season passed the half way point...this was because RB abandoned the 2023 project, and turned completely to 2024. The catch up of others was simply RB’s calculation on returns, and knowing full well nobody would catch them this year. Meaning, it’s not chance what happened in 2023. Their being caught up was simply a calculus they had already resolved.

I don’t think people realize, or want to realize, the levels RB works at. I think many dismiss their prowess simply because they don’t want to believe they are that much better. And the funny thing is, I’m not a big fan of any one team particularly, so its not my bias saying that they are that much better. I’ve just watched them for decades now, and all they do is keep getting better. It’s easy to forget, they alone are the ones who stole Merc dominance just before the engine era ended. And they did it in the midst of a horrendous shift over to a new engine manufacturer. It’s actually incredible they were able to win it all in 2021. There was more to that year than the final race. Many forget that.

Sorry to be “that guy”, but RB are that much better when it comes to management and aero. The systems they have in place to accentuate their engineer and driver strengths are a product of perfect leadership and management. Really. RB don’t get the credit, and Horner certainly doesn’t get enough credit, for what they put together every year. It’s really quite amazing. It’s like watching a rock band that is able to transcend generations while everyone else fails to keep selling albums. Many try to be Metallica or Aerosmith, but only a few are able to actually do it...and it’s not money, it’s gifted talent. RB is the same with Newey and Horner.
Emag wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:48 pm
Are they completely ditching the concept which pretty much the entire grid agreed to follow last year? Or are they just building around it in a way which elevates the platform to a whole new level?
I dunno. But I do know the concept they present will be the best option available since they have been on it full throttle since midsummer and well before in a smaller capacity. I think the cost cap actually works in their favor since it is management and leadership choices that make the team strong, not endless money. So they make better choices at every step. We’ve seen this repeatedly over decades of time. It’s why Merc can’t pull their sh*t together. It’s why Ferrari also can’t find their arse from a hole in the ground. It’s not money, it’s genius and management. Give all the teams $100 and RB will spend it better. And I’m saying that *wanting* Merc and Ferrari and Aston and Macca and Williams to do better because I don’t like dominance and want many at the sharp end. All drivers deserve a fair shot. It’s just better racing and it means something more when wins come not just from car dominance.

That said, prepare yourself for more dominance. It’s not going to stop. They are going to put Lewis into retirement. Watch. He doesn’t have the patience of Alonso.
Emag wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:48 pm
I expect it to be like Mercedes 2015 -> 2016.
From the outside, they looked similar. But the 2016 car was a lot faster than its predecessor.
Hard to say with Newey on board: Evolution or revolution...but there’s nobody better in the paddock than Newey when it comes to making the correct choices in difficult situations.
Watching F1 since 1986.

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chrisc90
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Re: RB20 speculation

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Chuckjr wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2023 7:56 pm
......
Well said!

Emag
Emag
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Re: RB20 speculation

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I agree with most of what you said, but Ferrari did not have an illegal engine in 2017. The main deficit they had to Mercedes that year was power actually. It's what maybe made them push beyond the regulations to kill that gap. Whether they had an illegal engine in 2018 is up for debate, but I still don't think so.

Even in 2019, they didn't run "full power" for the whole season.

Nevertheless, I will say one other thing. It is wrong to idolize people to this extent. Newey is a mastermind when it comes to vehicle dynamics and aerodynamics, but he is not a "one man army". And he is just a human, so it is wrong to assume he makes no mistakes.

You mentioned the 2013 RedBull as an example of RedBull's capabilities as a team, but you can't leave out the fact that they more or less botched the 2012 car getting almost beaten to the driver's championship by an even worse botched up Ferrari. And that's when they came from a fairly dominant 2011 season.

All I am saying is, don't count your chicken before they hatch.

For the time being, I am intrigued and can't wait to see what this team has done with the RB20. This year's machine was a masterpiece, but you can't deny the external factors that played into the dominance as well.

Both Mercedes and Ferrari doubled down on their respective concepts which in the end turned out to be the wrong path to follow. Whereas RedBull had it right from the get go so it makes sense they were even stronger this year when the main competitors fumble.

Let me remind you, the Ferrari last year started out as the better car. It was just not a good development platform and they were also hindered by the floor technical directive too.

So it brings me back to my first point. RedBull will most likely still be the top force in 2024. But I don't think they will be able to do it in the same fashion as this year.

AR3-GP
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Re: RB20 speculation

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Emag wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2023 11:08 pm

You mentioned the 2013 RedBull as an example of RedBull's capabilities as a team, but you can't leave out the fact that they more or less botched the 2012 car getting almost beaten to the driver's championship by an even worse botched up Ferrari. And that's when they came from a fairly dominant 2011 season.
Minor points:

a) I think describing any team/car that wins both the WDC and WCC as "botched" is very harsh. If RB and Ferrari were bad cars, what were the other teams doing losing to them? :lol:

b) 2012 was the FIA's second(?) attempt to kill Rb's blown diffuser, so naturally there may have been teething troubles, which RB still overcame.

Emag
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Re: RB20 speculation

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AR3-GP wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2023 11:15 pm
Emag wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2023 11:08 pm

You mentioned the 2013 RedBull as an example of RedBull's capabilities as a team, but you can't leave out the fact that they more or less botched the 2012 car getting almost beaten to the driver's championship by an even worse botched up Ferrari. And that's when they came from a fairly dominant 2011 season.
Minor points:

a) I think describing any team/car that wins both the WDC and WCC as "botched" is very harsh. If RB and Ferrari were bad cars, what were the other teams doing losing to them? :lol:

b) 2012 was the FIA's second(?) attempt to kill Rb's blown diffuser, so naturally there may have been teething troubles, which RB still overcame.
Of course I use the term "botched up" relatively. But there is a reason why 2012 is considered as one of the best seasons in terms of racing and competitiveness. It's exactly because RedBull competitors really "botched it" up that year too.

McLaren was a literal glass cannon, being the fastest car for most of the season but unable to convert races and blowing up whenever it felt like it. And Jenson took a while to get used to that car for some reason, so they lost out on a lot of wcc points.

And Ferrari started the season with a bad package. Developed it to a decent level but it still was a very track-dependent car. But Alonso's abilities and the chaotic nature of the season made them a serious wdc contender.

The point is, the other teams really failed to capitalize on the hindered RedBull (partly for the reason you mentioned on point b). That's why we had freak winners and podiums that year. Because none of the top teams did a good job.

And I think I will leave it at this before we go too off topic.
Last edited by Emag on Mon Dec 11, 2023 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

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dren
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Re: RB20 speculation

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Ahh 2012, the year Maldonado thought he was going to challenge for the Championship after his victory.
Honda!

Rodak
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Re: RB20 speculation

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organic wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2023 5:44 pm
Horner confirming much of what I suspected for a long time already. Also would be in line with what James Allison said recently. With a 4-year cycle and a budget cap, producing a clean slate new car each year makes less sense..
Christian Horner: The RB19 is already a piece of history, what we have achieved with this car is simply incredible. There are many things that were carried over from the RB18, part of the chassis, the suspension is the same, the gearbox is also exactly the same. Probably, 60% of the car ran last year as well.
So my expectation is that the RB20 will be a clean slate design that'll carry over few components from the RB19 and it'll be developed into the 2025 car
Why on earth would you go for a completely new car design when you can improve what you have, without the chance that your 'clean slate design' might be an iteration of the Mercedes debacle? Rationally, especially as RB have the least wind tunnel time, would be to improve what you have, not throw it away with your fingers crossed.

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organic
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Re: RB20 speculation

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Rodak wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2023 1:56 am
organic wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2023 5:44 pm
Horner confirming much of what I suspected for a long time already. Also would be in line with what James Allison said recently. With a 4-year cycle and a budget cap, producing a clean slate new car each year makes less sense..
Christian Horner: The RB19 is already a piece of history, what we have achieved with this car is simply incredible. There are many things that were carried over from the RB18, part of the chassis, the suspension is the same, the gearbox is also exactly the same. Probably, 60% of the car ran last year as well.
So my expectation is that the RB20 will be a clean slate design that'll carry over few components from the RB19 and it'll be developed into the 2025 car
Why on earth would you go for a completely new car design when you can improve what you have, without the chance that your 'clean slate design' might be an iteration of the Mercedes debacle? Rationally, especially as RB have the least wind tunnel time, would be to improve what you have, not throw it away with your fingers crossed.
Clean slate in the sense that you don't need to make compromises to accommodate carried over components. Everything can be optimized fully for the rb20 whilst the rb19 was hampered by rb18 carryoverb

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Wouter
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Re: RB20 speculation

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Translated by DeepL.

Jake Dennis: "Can confirm the RB20 looks good on the simulator"

Image

Red Bull Racing simulator and development driver (since 2018) Jake Dennis has lifted the veil on Max Verstappen
and Sergio Pérez's car for 2024. Virtually, at least, the RB20 does what it's supposed to do.

RB20 looks good on the simulator

“It was great to drive 125 laps on Tuesday,” Dennis said during the FIA gala at the Young Driver Test in Abu Dhabi at the end of November, where he took his place behind the wheel of the RB19. "That was the best day of my career. All credits to these guys for building something so special. This car is amazing. Hopefully the RB20 does nice too. I can confirm it looks good on the simulator,
so we should should be good next year," he says with a wink.
The Power of Dreams!

KimiRai
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Re: RB20 speculation

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Massive levels of speculation, but according to a Spanish journalist, Giorgio Piola told Newey that he wanted to quit because he was too old already, unless Newey would bring another great car. To which Newey replied that he would indeed.

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F1NAC
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Re: RB20 speculation

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KimiRai wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2023 6:53 am
Massive levels of speculation, but according to a Spanish journalist, Giorgio Piola told Newey that he wanted to retire because he was too old already, unless Newey would bring another great car. To which Newey replied that he would indeed.
Well let's be real. Even if they bring RB 19 in Bahrain that would still be a great car... eh this off season time :)

CHT
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Re: RB20 speculation

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F1NAC wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2023 6:55 am
KimiRai wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2023 6:53 am
Massive levels of speculation, but according to a Spanish journalist, Giorgio Piola told Newey that he wanted to retire because he was too old already, unless Newey would bring another great car. To which Newey replied that he would indeed.
Well let's be real. Even if they bring RB 19 in Bahrain that would still be a great car... eh this off season time :)
which is why I am wondering if RBR will start 2024 with RB20, or should they do an RB19B spec and introduce their RB20 later in the season.