Prediction Pecking Order at Melbourne.

[ESPImperium]

Interesting sets of questions at the moment:

Is McLaren really so slow?
Is Brawn really so fast?

AND

Is BMW reliable, but a little slow?
Is Ferrari fast, but a little lacking in reliability?

AND

Is Alonso flattering a bad car?
Where is RBR?

Its more like who is sandbagging and who is running on quali times as well.

But seriously, the dark horses of this season will be Toyota, Brawn have emerged out of the lime light and could be concidered outsiders, but Toyota are Rank Outsiders with Williams this year... All depending on the Diffuser being accepted as legal.

[Belatti]

What if Bernie/Max let Brawn have a secret advantage just to show Honda how wrong they were?

Just wondering...

[WhiteBlue]

What if Bernie/Max let Brawn have a secret advantage just to show Honda how wrong they were?

Just wondering...

And the Pope is against condoms because he wants the guys to have more fun.

[Belatti]

What if Bernie/Max let Brawn have a secret advantage just to show Honda how wrong they were?

Just wondering...

And the Pope is against condoms because he wants the guys to have more fun.

Is he?
I´ll have to begin using them!!!

[spaman]

Want to revise my first post and try it once more and more systematically. This is for an avg. track on an avg. basis, as it "feels" to me after following all test sessions so far. I tried to get closer to it, by always comparing two teams and their relative advantage / disadvantage).

1. Renault vs McLaren (-0,5 sec / lap)
2. McLaren vs ForceIndia (-0,4 sec / lap)

Renault >> McLaren >> ForceIndia

3. Renault vs Ferrari (+0,3 sec / lap)

Ferrari >> Renault >> McLaren >> ForceIndia

4. ForceIndia vs STR (-0,1 sec / lap)
5. RedBull vs McLaren (-0,25 sec / lap)
6. Williams vs RedBull (+0,1 sec / lap)

Ferrari >> Renault >> RedBull >> Williams >> McLaren >> ForceIndia >> STR

BMW vs Toyota (-0,3 sec / lap)
BMW vs Ferrari (-0,1 sec / lap)
BRawn vs BMW (? / lap)

Code: Select all

POS     TEAM     GAP on FIRST     GAP on NEXT
1       BMW          0,00             0,00
2       Ferrari      0,10             0,10
3       Toyota       0,30             0,20
4       Renault      0,40             0,10
5       RedBull      0,65             0,25
6       Williams     0,75             0,10
7       McLaren      0,90             0,15
8       ForceIndia   1,30             0,40
9       STR          1,40             0,10

BRawn not showing off for sponsors:

Code: Select all

POS     TEAM     GAP on FIRST     GAP on NEXT
1       BRawn        0,00             0,00
2       BMW          0,60             0,60
3       Ferrari      0,70             0,10
4       Toyota       0,90             0,20
5       Renault      1,00             0,10
6       RedBull      1,25             0,25
7       Williams     1,35             0,10
8       McLaren      1,50             0,15
9       ForceIndia   1,90             0,40
10      STR          2,00             0,10

BRawn absolutely showing off for sponsors:

Code: Select all

POS     TEAM     GAP on FIRST     GAP on NEXT
1       BMW          0,00             0,00
2       Ferrari      0,10             0,10
3       Toyota       0,30             0,20
4       Renault      0,40             0,10
5       RedBull      0,65             0,25
6       BRawn        0,70             0,05
7       Williams     0,75             0,05
8       McLaren      0,90             0,15
9       ForceIndia   1,30             0,40
10      STR          1,40             0,10

[axle]

On that last table you've put Brawn midfield? How come?

[spaman]

On that last table you've put Brawn midfield? How come?

Even if he is showing off for sponsors you need an at least average car to show this pace. Don´t think ForceIndia, STR or McLaren could show 1:18:9xx - right now in Barcelona. Ok?

[axle]

On that last table you've put Brawn midfield? How come?

Even if he is showing off for sponsors you need an at least average car to show this pace. Don´t think ForceIndia, STR or McLaren could show 1:18:9xx - right now in Barcelona. Ok?

That doesn't answer my question at all...

Brawn is clearly a top 3 car for the very reason you've stated, no one can match the quali pace of it...so for it to be lower than 3rd in the list is frankly not something I can understand.

[enkidu]

It's all about opening eyes, maybe he just don't want to believe Brawn is quick!

[spaman]

On that last table you've put Brawn midfield? How come?

Even if he is showing off for sponsors you need an at least average car to show this pace. Don´t think ForceIndia, STR or McLaren could show 1:18:9xx - right now in Barcelona. Ok?

That doesn't answer my question at all...

Brawn is clearly a top 3 car for the very reason you've stated, no one can match the quali pace of it...so for it to be lower than 3rd in the list is frankly not something I can understand.

Ok - let me try it once more

In case Brawn really wants to impress potential sponsors (I don´t think he is) and he let Jenson and Rubens run the car underweight (little ballast) this would put the BGP001 somewhere close to the Williams. Since Rosberg yesterday ran about 1 sec slower than Rubens on low fuel. Rubens was probably also on low fuel with new soft tyres - minus ballast would put the BGP001 somewhere close to Williams.

In case he was running the car under race conditions - BGP001 definitely is fastest... I thought that this would be clear after I postet 3 !!! tables with different alternatives.

[RH1300S]

I don't understand why so many people still seem to think that the Brawn car is chasing sponsors and running light. It makes no sense to do that.

To my mind there is every reason to suspect the pace is genuine.

1. Ross Brawn is a true racer - you don't achieve what he has by self delusion. That way you learn nothing.

2. Ross has already stated that they have the money to run the team for this year.

3. Given the above you would imagine that he would be encouraging sponsors on board for the medium and long term. You won't achieve that by running an underweight car, then turn up at the first GP with a slow mongrel of a motor - your credibility will suddenly go through the floor and potential sponsors will vanish very quickly.

I think we are seeing what the car is capable of. Perhaps what we haven't seen yet is the full potential of McLaren & Ferrari (although, I suspect the picture reflects their current form - it may change by Melbourne).

[CMSMJ1]

I agree with you RH1300S

The Brawn car is not running so fast unless it has genuine pace. I recall the Prost of 2000 running very fast in testing and then not scoring a point all year...

Brawn has gone on record saying that no moeny is required and so with the limited testing available to them it makes no sense ot be sohwboating. Serious, fast and efficient mileage is what they need.

Roll on the 29th

[spaman]

Since we haven´t seen much of the Brawn BGP001 yet, I was just trying to show different alternatives, so that anyone could go along with my Pecking Order with respect to 1. All Teams (without BRawnGP) 2. All Teams (BrawnGP beeing as fast as shown) 3. All Teams (BrawnGP going underweight).

But it seems, that there is nooo way to satisfy everyone. I could quit posting as an option.

[RH1300S]

Since we haven´t seen much of the Brawn BGP001 yet, I was just trying to show different alternatives, so that anyone could go along with my Pecking Order with respect to 1. All Teams (without BRawnGP) 2. All Teams (BrawnGP beeing as fast as shown) 3. All Teams (BrawnGP going underweight).

But it seems, that there is nooo way to satisfy everyone. I could quit posting as an option.

My comment wasn't aimed at you - I THINK I understood what you were trying to say.

I was making a general observation from my point of view

[axle]

I'd also like to disagree with your positioning of Williams (and concequently Brawn in the last table)...if you check the times you'll see only Williams and BrawnGP made it into the 1:19's all week, now whilst the ultimate gap between them was 0.8 secs Williams still demonstrated a 0.3 gap the next best time by Timo Glock...now we can summise all you want on fuel loads etc, we know the Williams was trying hard on a Quali trial whilst tinkering with the setup...but who is to say that A) that was a perfect run and B) that no one else tried a qualifying simulation?

To quote Massa about the Brawn lap time... "I don't think anybody could. Many people were running on low fuel as well, not just them. I think their lap time is just much quicker than what anybody else can do."

I think these factors bring to light the fact it's not worth the effort to try and guess where everyone is at present - we'll know in 2 weeks.