F1MATHS: How does Pirelli identify the best race strategies?
Although race strategies played less of a role across the 24 rounds of last season due to the durable tyres, strategists had to make vital decisions in some races. Formula One's sole tyre manufacturer Pirelli explains how it carries out its pre-event and pre-race calculations.
Before each Grand Prix, Pirelli supplies teams with projected race‑strategy scenarios based on the tyre compounds available for that weekend. These recommendations are produced through detailed calculations that account for a wide range of tyre‑related variables.
Pirelli’s modelling process differs from the teams’ own methods, even if the goal is similar: identifying the quickest way to complete the race. The company uses proprietary software to analyse data for a single car running in clean air, generating an idealised strategy based on tyre performance and expected stint lengths.
The analysis begins with the performance differences between compounds, determined through pre‑event simulations. This is combined with historical degradation data from previous races at the same circuit, as well as information gathered earlier in the season when the same compounds were used.
A central metric is “performance life,” the point at which a tyre’s pace drops enough to make a pit stop worthwhile. Using this, along with fuel‑load variations and other factors, Pirelli estimates lap times for each compound and identifies the most efficient pit‑stop windows.
Teams then compare these projections with their own data. One of the most influential variables is pit‑lane time loss, which differs from track to track and plays a major role in choosing between one‑stop and two‑stop strategies. Pirelli updates its analysis throughout the weekend as new information comes in from practice sessions.
Teams typically run more complex simulations using the Monte Carlo method, which incorporates random elements such as traffic, overtaking difficulty, and the probability of Safety Car interventions — factors that can significantly alter the ideal strategy once the race begins.
